Adaptive Splines for Prediction (ASP)

[sinnott]

Name

Adaptive Splines for Prediction

Screenshots

Focus Topic

Electric load forecasting tool

Primary Purpose

Use constrained smoothing splines to fit robust models of electric load as a function of temperature

Description

ASP learns the relationship between electric load and temperature for individual geographies (e.g. ReEDS regions, states, etc.) based on one or more years of historical data. The smoothing splines are used to learn the "aggregate" relationship between daily average load and daily average temperature, with simple averaging by month used to learn hourly offsets from the daily average. Together, these techniques yield a simple, lightweight method for fitting robust models that perform well both for description and prediction even with limited (e.g., a single year) and noisy (e.g., representing small or highly meteorologically variable geographies) data.

Mathematical Description

Spline fits are constrained to have a single critical point when modeling the relationship between daily average load and daily average temperature, such that forecasted loads are guaranteed to increase as temperatures become more extreme (both hot and cold).

Website

https://github.com/NREL/adaptive-splines

Documentation

https://github.com/NREL/adaptive-splines

Source

https://github.com/NREL/adaptive-splines

Year

2022

Institution

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Funding Source

DOE

Publications

2

Publication List

Forthcoming (2023) publication from NREL study "Enhanced Simulation Tools for Scheduling Solar Plus Storage Power Plants." PI: Sourabh Dalvi.
Forthcoming (2023) publication from NREL study "Foundational Assistance to ISO/RTOs under Electricity Market Transformation." PI: Bethany Frew.

Use Cases

Electric load forecasting as a function of temperature for both description and forecasting. Particularly relevant in limited-data-availability contexts.

Infrastructure Sector

• Atmospheric dispersion
• Agriculture
• Biomass
• Buildings
• Communications
• Cooling
• Ecosystems
• Electric
• District heating
• Forestry
• Health
• Hydrogen
• Individual heating
• Land use
• Liquid fuels
• Natural Gas
• Transportation
• Water

Represented Behavior

• Earth Systems
• Employment
• Built Infrastructure
• Financial
• Macro-economy
• Micro-economy
• Policy
• Social

Modeling Paradigm

• Analytics
• Data
• Discrete Simulation
• Dynamic Simulation
• Equilibrium
• Engineering/Design
• Optimization
• Visualization

Capabilities

No response

Programming Language

• C – ISO/IEC 9899
• C++ (C plus plus) – ISO/IEC 14882
• C# (C sharp) – ISO/IEC 23270
• Delphi
• GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System)
• Go
• Haskell
• Java
• JavaScript(Scripting language)
• Julia
• Kotlin
• LabVIEW
• Lua
• MATLAB
• Modelica
• Nim
• Object Pascal
• Octave
• Pascal Script
• Python
• R
• Rust
• Simulink
• Swift (Apple programming language)
• WebAssembly
• Zig

Required Dependencies

N/A

What is the software tool's license?

3-clause BSD License (BSD-3-Clause)

Operating System Support

• Windows
• Mac OSX
• Linux
• iOS
• Android

User Interface

• Programmatic
• Command line
• Web based
• Graphical user
• Menu driven
• Form based
• Natural language

Parallel Computing Paradigm

• Multi-threaded computing
• Multi-core computing
• Distributed computing
• Cluster computing
• Massively parallel computing
• Grid computing
• Reconfigurable computing with field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA)
• General-purpose computing on graphics processing units
• Application-specific integrated circuits
• Vector processors

What is the highest temporal resolution supported by the tool?

Hours

What is the typical temporal resolution supported by the tool?

Hours

What is the largest temporal scope supported by the tool?

Years

What is the typical temporal scope supported by the tool?

Years

What is the highest spatial resolution supported by the tool?

Facility

What is the typical spatial resolution supported by the tool?

State

What is the largest spatial scope supported by the tool?

Global

What is the typical spatial scope supported by the tool?

Region

Input Data Format

CSV

Input Data Description

Hourly temperature and load data

Output Data Format

CSV

Output Data Description

CSV files describing the fitted models

Contact Details

sinnott.murphy@nrel.gov

Interface, Integration, and Linkage

No response