ARIMA_final_submission.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "source": [],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "# COVID-19 Prediction with ARIMA"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "## 1. Data Pre-processing\n",
    "\n",
    "We first define some helper classes and functions to aid in our data pre-processing. Using the numpy and pandas library, we provide ourselves with some useful and needed functionalities such as parsing the input data into a dataframe, dropping unneeded features and accessing certain needed features from the input data.\n",
    "\n",
    "The following code blocks in 1.1 should be run first."
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 1.1 Constants, Helper Functions, and Helper Classes"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "data_round1_dir = 'data/round1'\n",
    "data_round2_dir = 'data/round2'\n",
    "submissions_dir = 'data/submission'"
   ],
   "cell_type": "code",
   "metadata": {},
   "execution_count": 1,
   "outputs": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import os\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# https://gist.github.com/rogerallen/1583593\n",
    "# ^ Use this in case we need state code translation\n",
    "\n",
    "from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler\n",
    "\n",
    "import math\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "class utils:\n",
    "    def __init__(self):\n",
    "        pass\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def split(self, dataframe, test=0.2):\n",
    "        size = dataframe.shape\n",
    "        train_size = size[0] - math.floor(size[0] * test)\n",
    "        return dataframe[:train_size], dataframe[train_size:]\n",
    "    \n",
    "class CoreData(object):\n",
    "    def __init__(self, data_path = None, debug=False):\n",
    "        if not data_path:\n",
    "            raise Exception(\"Input file path!\")\n",
    "        self.data_path = data_path\n",
    "        self.df = None\n",
    "        self.states = []\n",
    "        self.state_df = {}\n",
    "        self.debug = debug\n",
    "        \n",
    "    def load(self, normalize=True):\n",
    "        '''\n",
    "        DataProcessor.load()\n",
    "        Pre-load data state-by-state to a dictionary.\n",
    "        '''\n",
    "        # Change this line to modify dropped data series.\n",
    "        dropped_col = ['ID', 'Province_State', 'Date', 'Incident_Rate', 'Recovered', 'People_Tested', 'People_Hospitalized', 'Mortality_Rate', 'Testing_Rate', 'Hospitalization_Rate' ]\n",
    "        \n",
    "        self.df = pd.read_csv(train_data_path)\n",
    "        self.states = list(np.unique(self.df['Province_State']))\n",
    "        self.state_df = dict.fromkeys(self.states, None)\n",
    "        self.mean = dict.fromkeys(self.states, None)\n",
    "        self.std = dict.fromkeys(self.states, None)\n",
    "        \n",
    "        for s in self.states:\n",
    "            df_filter = self.df['Province_State'] == s\n",
    "            tmp_state_df = self.df[df_filter]\n",
    "            self.state_df[s] = tmp_state_df.drop(dropped_col, 1)\n",
    "            \n",
    "            # Normalize\n",
    "            if normalize:\n",
    "                self.mean[s] = self.state_df[s].mean()\n",
    "                self.std[s] = self.state_df[s].std()\n",
    "                self.state_df[s] = (self.state_df[s] - self.mean[s])/self.std[s]\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def access(self, state=None):\n",
    "        if not state:\n",
    "            raise Exception('Enter state name! i.e. self.access(\"California\")')\n",
    "        elif state not in self.states:\n",
    "            raise Exception('Check your spelling of the state.')\n",
    "        return self.state_df[state]\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def access_split(self, state=None, test_portion=0.2):\n",
    "        df = self.access(state)\n",
    "        return utils().split(dataframe=df, test=test_portion)\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "## 2. Round 1 Forecasting\n",
    "\n",
    "In this section, we build and train an ARIMA model to predict COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths for each state between Sept 1 and Sept 26, using data from April 12 to August 31. Each state will have its own model and its own set of hyperparameters, as the trends can be wildly different for different states. Data for round 1 is located in the data/round1/ directory."
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 2.1 Loading Round 1 Data "
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import math\n",
    "from pandas.plotting import lag_plot\n",
    "from datetime import datetime\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARIMA\n",
    "from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error\n",
    "from pandas.plotting import autocorrelation_plot\n",
    "import warnings\n",
    "warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "train_data_path = os.path.join(data_round1_dir, \"train.csv\")\n",
    "test_data_path  = os.path.join(data_round1_dir, \"test.csv\")\n",
    "graph_data_path = os.path.join(data_round1_dir, \"graph.csv\")\n",
    "dp = CoreData(train_data_path)\n",
    "dp.load(False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 2.2 Forecasting Confirmed Cases"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "tags": [
     "outputPrepend"
    ]
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "output_type": "stream",
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "879808255, 106054.81180025324, 107067.83725921025, 108084.55539645533, 109120.11115601542, 110162.69706446465, 111213.21417054739, 112269.78264523136, 113330.44749319852, 114396.66875928166, 115471.31080446752, 116555.83618019786, 117648.6054775074, 118749.94872895023, 119857.94431760091, 120972.29399256792]\n",
      "Processing: Iowa...\n",
      "Done: Iowa...[65750.54199960543, 66392.83050751635, 67050.08147682124, 67715.47431959322, 68386.06757102373, 69060.5926909687, 69738.50265879082, 70419.56151017631, 71103.66803556815, 71790.7783527692, 72480.87382282023, 73173.94591135545, 73869.99131728862, 74569.00821186995, 75266.63535851707, 75965.07914532922, 76665.15789932669, 77366.95551105398, 78070.91182625205, 78777.0253924424, 79484.31238212512, 80192.27177495798, 80901.26696641433, 81611.54600998765, 82323.29084951432, 83036.6240227166]\n",
      "Processing: Kansas...\n",
      "Done: Kansas...[43035.1008292906, 43673.35350426799, 44217.7176930893, 44813.28773390899, 45388.9450556241, 45979.54994324108, 46568.01354115854, 47162.71261411926, 47759.54038229899, 48360.51019495667, 48964.63450578612, 49572.39786344899, 50183.5620577421, 50798.244070033536, 51411.974395074336, 52029.28874307741, 52649.394237673485, 53271.80754515277, 53897.37786988077, 54525.130789570925, 55155.50942759949, 55786.11392472996, 56419.555197955284, 57054.954122649884, 57692.12454032123, 58331.75998014855]\n",
      "Processing: Kentucky...\n",
      "Done: Kentucky...[48810.33639157419, 49438.16217951695, 50051.02730315871, 50669.01697430225, 51290.3632849134, 51915.220333276106, 52543.57299834105, 53175.42203326808, 53810.766179510225, 54449.60507698157, 55091.937838473335, 55737.764121245986, 56387.08369799039, 57039.89571454259, 57704.3195174702, 58372.22738623905, 59044.0182097169, 59719.64372908595, 60399.84233662355, 61084.782706995196, 61774.644226393124, 62470.910862430035, 63172.16261413036, 63878.25183806565, 64588.735095507, 65304.062129327736]\n",
      "Processing: Louisiana...\n",
      "Done: Louisiana...[149048.76346194564, 149716.53125153095, 150454.27986115214, 151169.28416522662, 151894.86807226163, 152619.05697117854, 153346.14821237646, 154074.60501028702, 154804.980245167, 155537.06833458185, 156270.94796044545, 157006.5888029318, 157744.00446671588, 158483.18625653055, 159205.1689241696, 159931.8491732794, 160659.5025402016, 161386.6396275758, 162114.26527507664, 162842.23905317823, 163571.29402075912, 164292.78341598314, 165017.79489785503, 165740.44489874746, 166463.39435363616, 167186.65034717563]\n",
      "Processing: Maine...\n",
      "Done: Maine...[4548.759895492006, 4569.849106270018, 4591.270119290091, 4612.732942711893, 4634.153356258365, 4655.506992926578, 4676.786890210909, 4697.991139988529, 4719.119279797647, 4740.171270098611, 4761.147177345398, 4782.047095055108, 4802.871116898975, 4823.619331019228, 4844.0673481755975, 4864.3044652769095, 4884.295149910857, 4904.053541496978, 4923.574015312482, 4942.858820001007, 4961.90704595021, 4980.719064206376, 4999.294724392441, 5017.634088077191, 5035.737138797099, 5053.603883136176]\n",
      "Processing: Maryland...\n",
      "Done: Maryland...[108761.24580709993, 109279.9860885594, 109798.63731603937, 110316.29264995673, 110832.82568209326, 111348.21988043892, 111862.4720295752, 112375.58281908688, 112887.55040581802, 113398.37556078816, 113908.0567868166, 114416.59569215971, 114923.99193505304, 115430.2445058951, 115927.39861758372, 116421.32140428753, 116912.20974660316, 117401.5730175411, 117888.59552336973, 118372.96499149669, 118852.38045432403, 119327.10561550577, 119797.55965423027, 120263.78977527525, 120726.49664510274, 121185.48586660702]\n",
      "Processing: Massachusetts...\n",
      "Done: Massachusetts...[128795.42117493691, 129041.85208931658, 129275.9845850187, 129498.35425230567, 129709.03562721252, 129908.04491502876, 130095.38245245468, 130271.0515690052, 130435.0543997622, 130587.39328189325, 130728.06134104366, 130857.06378800143, 130974.40424660864, 131080.07678681315, 131218.22347222274, 131356.72639068935, 130206.00561878024, 129053.44224705412, 127891.37028780681, 126725.72943456878, 125559.94669691002, 124398.07318116324, 123242.83113703619, 122087.71570178618, 120932.11299326892, 119774.72674228555]\n",
      "Processing: Michigan...\n",
      "Done: Michigan...[113732.21037163638, 114443.14143275107, 115152.8232237999, 115861.13874892355, 116568.0871952197, 117273.6705729299, 117977.89273155833, 118680.75755849837, 119382.26706256837, 120082.42288188873, 120781.22641365373, 121478.68054550464, 122174.78655509699, 122869.54762028331, 123610.49447164519, 124357.0465250594, 125111.07679240941, 125870.1977102737, 126632.97192854396, 127403.01026961616, 128181.56187375213, 128971.13911516004, 129772.60681053244, 130586.87438235348, 131409.9877506909, 132241.9608162333]\n",
      "Processing: Minnesota...\n",
      "Done: Minnesota...[76605.50322338453, 77337.69554136894, 78112.48878939694, 78883.80649685598, 79662.45418096721, 80445.89874458352, 81234.73450805304, 82028.82082922768, 82828.18964729652, 83632.83357354386, 84442.75501412903, 85257.95377246928, 86078.42971810389, 86904.1824945739, 87721.93933422581, 88538.49697578257, 89356.92706992425, 90177.00292926953, 90999.51367587878, 91824.00726414578, 92648.17467338091, 93470.23968966163, 94290.60833121029, 95112.01956254354, 95934.72244657045, 96758.27344440568]\n",
      "Processing: Mississippi...\n",
      "Done: Mississippi...[83511.11521975313, 84138.91649696195, 84784.11396293475, 85435.68420663431, 86091.16165022027, 86749.99174844444, 87412.0502352233, 88077.30738970883, 88745.75589401629, 89417.3940978791, 90092.22047364275, 90770.23402637837, 91451.43379013932, 92135.81874264541, 92800.6219707757, 93459.7402004345, 94119.35209716826, 94778.1193945555, 95435.54788276932, 96092.22093841595, 96747.24429059374, 97395.34500988113, 98036.61672095404, 98675.62757362923, 99312.73356248467, 99946.83038477007]\n",
      "Processing: Missouri...\n",
      "Done: Missouri...[86876.05690618593, 88148.48206448118, 89436.41619214934, 90734.69310783659, 92041.62922820993, 93356.67813623833, 94679.65938515813, 96010.51650233714, 97349.22997722743, 98695.79287723619, 100050.20413138768, 101412.46430265819, 102782.57264004294, 104160.5292303092, 105561.88004912589, 106977.63936753965, 108407.94833553082, 109850.94907346932, 111304.55025404587, 112770.78038168838, 114252.26910157426, 115751.66284499294, 117266.72177944162, 118796.09791256176, 120338.734843848, 121894.38598880562]\n",
      "Processing: Montana...\n",
      "Done: Montana...[7527.0115045400935, 7643.278415104446, 7764.066859026615, 7887.1487691256525, 8011.658317028812, 8137.259007300045, 8263.820032517298, 8391.29051389446, 8519.650643067165, 8648.892686429845, 8779.013597417654, 8910.012167605619, 9041.887905850957, 9174.640578290155, 9310.129303385742, 9447.421338747059, 9736.353208890023, 10026.1454516033, 10317.175272026661, 10609.335659340824, 10902.888769407866, 11198.201233382413, 11495.45948701392, 11794.026978812948, 12093.643894077395, 12394.433996303358]\n",
      "Processing: Nebraska...\n",
      "Done: Nebraska...[34570.38879503176, 34859.8863602235, 35151.302001353695, 35444.15175215715, 35738.37949626816, 36033.978954841295, 36330.94929657728, 36629.290417720506, 36929.002232440944, 37230.084716669, 37532.53778594701, 37836.36135643141, 38141.55535456901, 38448.119701304626, 38755.13965146841, 39063.21476212746, 39372.137478595665, 39681.91766570076, 39992.54724421431, 40303.96020617692, 40616.00179522386, 40928.36034847935, 41241.04076630865, 41554.10659517656, 41867.58374861222, 42181.28816671233]\n",
      "Processing: Nevada...\n",
      "Done: Nevada...[69695.10527626605, 70162.12197528883, 70631.6037508623, 71103.5058150598, 71577.82786216556, 72054.56999258594, 72533.73154704379, 73015.31202217292, 73499.31152904223, 73985.72994676237, 74474.56755509994, 74965.82377339451, 75459.4984674582, 75955.59217442869, 76454.66045536012, 76956.30011052595, 77460.6245498692, 77967.63393242861, 78477.3290661572, 78989.73993064406, 79504.99970568795, 80023.19182543142, 80544.31582940242, 81068.41165907179, 81595.4166125956, 82125.40176171075]\n",
      "Processing: New Hampshire...\n",
      "Done: New Hampshire...[7291.50664011932, 7309.16283584489, 7325.910722241964, 7342.500852179098, 7358.65947960813, 7374.486478300869, 7389.945425438372, 7405.049598346725, 7419.79414845656, 7434.180845473861, 7448.209021338262, 7461.878926381238, 7475.190448296108, 7488.143611357065, 7499.75846329705, 7511.230488394556, 7522.1001379117815, 7532.7390312551715, 7542.8855325057375, 7552.448975252767, 7561.517621961675, 7569.981621573176, 7577.843948728098, 7585.2870214222885, 7592.206303516491, 7598.694943408545]\n",
      "Processing: New Jersey...\n",
      "Done: New Jersey...[192215.76091572715, 192484.03805189917, 192714.28938769156, 192930.67546293413, 193121.64440722586, 193292.71891879968, 193441.2581945826, 193568.52580972164, 193673.91799113998, 193757.72312013345, 193819.80401605784, 193860.22817533137, 193878.95758450768, 193879.45758450768, 193954.77524369335, 194020.43966629324, 194114.81031427401, 194223.76732052639, 194344.36868707766, 194472.75733182242, 194615.17862921275, 194790.33015979533, 194955.4682272629, 195159.86835667753, 195369.20978037396, 195599.80730776486]\n",
      "Processing: New Mexico...\n",
      "Done: New Mexico...[25469.895090006612, 25580.76443252031, 25692.99448946481, 25805.326877633997, 25917.950055300873, 26030.83555888324, 26143.987474489128, 26257.405051120673, 26371.0883307668, 26485.03719318294, 26599.25173915913, 26713.731775735465, 26828.477395614296, 26943.488452950405, 27047.406363541406, 27149.79107493085, 27248.609030534764, 27345.01274264011, 27439.864361828713, 27531.75609506693, 27620.391105375555, 27706.121042906085, 27788.234667533085, 27867.236800022667, 27943.167188704025, 28015.88804774772]\n",
      "Processing: New York...\n",
      "Done: New York...[435367.48769404634, 435935.01079520135, 436458.41086906765, 436937.8101089304, 437373.0703406336, 437764.26231833943, 438111.359708599, 438414.3575700452, 438673.3416221856, 438888.118092587, 439058.74015369546, 439185.29295536445, 439267.6582952351, 439305.92557222274, 439306.42557222274, 439306.92557222274, 439307.42557222274, 439307.92557222274, 439308.42557222274, 439308.92557222274, 439309.42557222274, 439309.92557222274, 439310.42557222274, 439310.92557222274, 439311.42557222274, 439311.92557222274]\n",
      "Processing: North Carolina...\n",
      "Done: North Carolina...[168890.2237659811, 170462.12758526023, 172044.16445179906, 173635.41074872445, 175235.9074966462, 176845.65657934293, 178464.6516480279, 180092.89403074994, 181730.38532895694, 183377.12495599966, 185033.11096016926, 186698.3423322997, 188372.82220821828, 190056.54735072856, 191748.35158153425, 193449.6161051669, 195160.11320857762, 196879.9080829226, 198609.06072094938, 200347.4672859913, 202094.8971046867, 203851.2802617947, 205616.85671273398, 207391.64320369784, 209175.8316386262, 210969.37739703478]\n",
      "Processing: North Dakota...\n",
      "Done: North Dakota...[11994.951032150959, 12199.319441257712, 12414.145086554096, 12633.766905669896, 12856.042816436346, 13080.162351826473, 13305.818944753542, 13532.896708111855, 13761.351853637983, 13991.167919955984, 14222.338737217044, 14454.862026435569, 14688.736977698225, 14923.96333841735, 15166.637800321143, 15413.593713248636, 15903.434855232223, 16396.091504834225, 16890.64340414461, 17387.274788112456, 17886.287306853148, 18389.591049085957, 18896.905773594393, 19407.85245275039, 19922.206834188717, 20439.34072984005]\n",
      "Processing: Ohio...\n",
      "Done: Ohio...[124178.83833066422, 125219.66589841274, 126265.24198142086, 127314.22800500503, 128366.47588311978, 129421.96921138729, 130480.70609546323, 131542.6856504979, 132607.9090018594, 133676.37489057187, 134748.08224650755, 135823.03280644707, 136901.22567657023, 137982.66044841128, 139063.89118253798, 140147.3820922013, 141232.72856460945, 142320.6617796244, 143411.36292877057, 144504.5219458474, 145600.1354307901, 146697.26052889065, 147796.16306332598, 148897.13640603088, 150000.28273416983, 151105.85140869484]\n",
      "Processing: Oklahoma...\n",
      "Done: Oklahoma...[59442.62048527639, 60183.22965796375, 60936.1966144838, 61696.15072747919, 62461.54356163786, 63231.92835428621, 64007.17663479113, 64787.2501398005, 65572.13856897912, 66361.83837622812, 67156.34869442889, 67955.66942948842, 68759.7997623698, 69568.73984831259, 70383.13567334779, 71202.69773877968, 72027.19261146539, 72856.71515362505, 73691.28072244031, 74530.70786792699, 75375.15033217648, 76224.70063742998, 77079.35746416646, 77939.06078598254, 78803.82828582838, 79673.63775429367]\n",
      "Processing: Oregon...\n",
      "Done: Oregon...[26961.4095419611, 27200.8200697493, 27442.8164628407, 27686.03401401497, 27930.63310581317, 28176.59448735445, 28423.920218326835, 28672.60980283702, 28922.663149914344, 29174.08010054396, 29426.86061787564, 29681.0045905881, 29936.511968431143, 30193.38270536989, 30442.629538752633, 30693.82091819473, 30946.5860151138, 31200.0371552615, 31453.456089773226, 31707.5389270262, 31962.407920516504, 32214.753842285983, 32466.64022305086, 32719.508193961883, 32973.05405089645, 33226.4076061094]\n",
      "Processing: Pennsylvania...\n",
      "Done: Pennsylvania...[139431.5981181964, 140061.98005200096, 140686.9762057328, 141306.62544030364, 141920.92894818506, 142529.88673001737, 143133.49921032248, 143731.76621836986, 144324.68834593013, 144912.26603848263, 145494.49831380218, 146071.3844933093, 146642.9259469465, 147209.12137062632, 147776.2190246186, 148338.7117665204, 148895.88756995279, 149448.87480650144, 149997.12312597298, 150541.1634167873, 151082.34028316662, 151620.89124422148, 152156.47112433522, 152687.07708303927, 153213.56646513377, 153736.5913154236]\n",
      "Processing: Rhode Island...\n",
      "Done: Rhode Island...[22016.86812673701, 22106.30000968473, 22191.414429768407, 22275.261515478785, 22357.482013477736, 22438.118539635278, 22517.166145952713, 22594.62563969113, 22670.496988439696, 22744.78033833758, 22817.475678294464, 22888.583172919232, 22958.102691159776, 23026.03434438115, 23093.59408695675, 23160.22532250065, 23226.183085620316, 23298.437256336565, 23369.83303749759, 23439.655129311905, 23510.994304173913, 23581.329776004164, 23650.935466028604, 23721.922380252287, 23796.037781954667, 23870.0130292577]\n",
      "Processing: South Carolina...\n",
      "Done: South Carolina...[119938.65016400792, 120879.83212311292, 121827.28071312119, 122780.51042369223, 123739.54172239253, 124704.37254218681, 125675.00287844495, 126651.4332848551, 127633.66416297459, 128621.69433569968, 129615.52552123646, 130615.15731785777, 131620.58791478488, 132631.81796983886, 133649.4582279994, 134673.12158840545, 135702.87631333206, 136738.69775063853, 137780.52491952147, 138828.46710756814, 139882.54488821691, 140942.87233375257, 142009.50932338412, 143082.4224533541, 144161.6323167618, 145247.13121035649]\n",
      "Processing: South Dakota...\n",
      "Done: South Dakota...[13763.312377045564, 14032.819126480905, 14306.42256964578, 14581.760337797063, 14858.330203114472, 15136.025974709602, 15414.825632455098, 15694.72490667814, 15975.723312071299, 16257.821001314605, 16541.018322455213, 16825.315449290545, 17110.71259673529, 17397.209989910836, 17697.87261612977, 18004.47404814568, 18317.10688896325, 18635.391993368456, 18955.91865856424, 19280.779918385262, 19611.543013975443, 19948.998565496284, 20294.036949443245, 20645.02996940819, 21001.53066859961, 21363.143304661673]\n",
      "Processing: Tennessee...\n",
      "Done: Tennessee...[156433.12820209077, 157949.8525894938, 159475.860040906, 161011.30624551972, 162556.18762398502, 164110.50216871977, 165674.25048814816, 167247.43726410405, 168830.05908907673, 170422.1174075172, 172023.60420016389, 173634.52803287443, 175254.88999697223, 176884.68363369742, 178498.2061764485, 180118.71563630822, 181748.9928758447, 183386.4317986023, 185032.7410233146, 186680.43431569598, 188333.29951216464, 189989.64160727296, 191648.8122598423, 193312.13963143705, 194980.67696355097, 196655.2191727191]\n",
      "Processing: Texas...\n",
      "Done: Texas...[636767.3727283467, 639735.0114072819, 644020.6779592223, 648373.0142754901, 651943.9656561641, 654740.3641719768, 657509.3719634447, 659872.7636545898, 662329.482617095, 665242.58872302, 667697.6432295855, 669933.2843910038, 671800.1331152124, 673282.3460364614, 674662.8941147014, 676036.8468941905, 690088.6629920114, 703925.0396331917, 717550.1343899043, 730835.065297454, 743876.1379050874, 756786.0478280978, 769550.9724750826, 782286.8199296496, 795022.6673842166, 807758.5148387835]\n",
      "Processing: Utah...\n",
      "Done: Utah...[52442.672722072275, 52804.8652937848, 53176.48567473715, 53552.33100571516, 53930.8177400622, 54311.46366984833, 54694.12198911084, 55078.74796883871, 55465.3276297288, 55853.85678274933, 56244.33400907258, 56636.75884496977, 57031.131271587634, 57427.4507186392, 57823.09491280095, 58219.906655553415, 59667.22596486407, 61116.17791977131, 62567.17231432221, 64019.86610416281, 65473.29746498471, 66927.74621602151, 68382.79468119262, 69839.0177220609, 71296.91168239652, 72756.34293348201]\n",
      "Processing: Vermont...\n",
      "Done: Vermont...[1632.5685934132018, 1641.045347806464, 1649.517448644839, 1657.9735284770416, 1666.415179611212, 1674.842266415212, 1683.25486804454, 1691.6530226036348, 1700.036765306383, 1708.4061248452906, 1716.7611246191675, 1725.1017843073914, 1733.4281212174474, 1741.740150260488, 1750.5929857933213, 1759.4870531749525, 1752.2194759054555, 1745.1309534348384, 1738.1082883843262, 1731.196525661914, 1724.4144520257776, 1717.825419037957, 1711.4175873913841, 1705.1409359139748, 1699.05061503417, 1693.1028253368245]\n",
      "Processing: Virginia...\n",
      "Done: Virginia...[121550.56306660612, 122533.22791095535, 123519.61512820012, 124509.6308721113, 125503.2742575453, 126500.54415217426, 127501.43995559939, 128505.96125670508, 129514.10866184291, 130525.8816883393, 131541.28021812078, 132560.30528275642, 133582.9558136933, 134609.23120146932, 135623.46145351516, 136637.21394017953, 137651.94201718457, 138667.7376346938, 139682.86075060713, 140697.96844098053, 141712.25927383514, 142723.24081535835, 143734.29759762174, 144744.59260826695, 145754.12401975616, 146762.38512449397]\n",
      "Processing: Washington...\n",
      "Done: Washington...[75168.6644445, 75650.70374851793, 76148.41597716858, 76645.0415674962, 77144.7537327726, 77646.51186761275, 78150.57518077196, 78656.87840593471, 79165.43750072124, 79676.24819523362, 80189.31124707457, 80704.62617756714, 81222.1929766744, 81742.01158800238, 82244.00543245625, 82752.50758575449, 83263.21150837385, 83774.20363251027, 84283.8700574034, 84795.82884332264, 85305.23816984611, 85810.07695762381, 86316.35189646667, 86822.81219182887, 87329.06302939462, 87834.44979894566]\n",
      "Processing: West Virginia...\n",
      "Done: West Virginia...[10381.93822407822, 10516.289374805938, 10651.308250736114, 10787.060810834242, 10923.541543513522, 11060.751185932297, 11198.689861599167, 11337.35769246843, 11476.754779883368, 11616.881204758321, 11757.737027258063, 11899.322291911905, 12041.637061896585, 12184.681347155834, 12328.497601470162, 12473.0667707296, 12826.032444440923, 13179.753010671742, 13534.229535616658, 13889.470820483182, 14245.480905385319, 14602.266112031224, 14959.83704822736, 15318.19560292343, 15677.336183403251, 16037.2643356851]\n",
      "Processing: Wisconsin...\n",
      "Done: Wisconsin...[76178.23365328794, 76908.61145064002, 77593.3403391834, 78375.9868904855, 79132.36307701704, 79950.71998687412, 80755.01014191304, 81599.14448357745, 82386.73161042003, 83166.08423973057, 83947.11059341753, 84731.84316198199, 85520.69839784334, 86313.76234198386, 87174.70280281868, 88012.54844966074, 90362.24362714891, 92714.50406513532, 95057.64391629066, 97412.38250400654, 99795.79451789481, 102195.23734182457, 104595.774898069, 106992.62321708475, 109380.70807485285, 111769.18507512192]\n",
      "Processing: Wyoming...\n",
      "Done: Wyoming...[3886.9808225905813, 3922.657923196175, 3958.646515678381, 3994.795297965826, 4031.1181390952715, 4067.613507946148, 4104.281356070125, 4141.1215303511935, 4178.133914794728, 4215.318404661836, 4252.674913958164, 4290.203368490887, 4327.903705784415, 4365.775878876732, 4403.144928897897, 4440.615879270701, 4555.8228626844475, 4671.087535864437, 4786.366635370025, 4901.66362157399, 5016.972074315343, 5132.182083095271, 5247.382188436794, 5362.57115917904, 5477.750909118057, 5592.910853815626]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "N_test = 26\n",
    "\n",
    "# states in outliers1 are predited to have lower value than the ground truth from our cross-validation reults.\n",
    "# states in outliers2 are predited to have higher value than the ground truth from our cross-validation reults.\n",
    "outliers1 = ['West Virginia', 'North Dakota','Wisconsin','Utah', 'Wyoming', 'Montana', 'Texas']\n",
    "outliers2 = ['Alabama', 'Vermont', 'Massachusetts']\n",
    "\n",
    "result_confirmed = {}\n",
    "states = dp.states\n",
    "for state in states:\n",
    "    print(f\"Processing: {state}...\")\n",
    "    training_data, test_data = dp.access_split(state, 0)\n",
    "    data = dp.access(state)\n",
    "    training = training_data['Confirmed'].values\n",
    "    testing = test_data['Confirmed'].values\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Use the differences between two days to train our model\n",
    "    temp_data = []\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(training)):\n",
    "        temp_data.append(training[i] - training[i-1])\n",
    "    training = temp_data\n",
    "\n",
    "    #Starting training\n",
    "    history = [x for x in training]\n",
    "    model_predictions = []\n",
    "    for time in range(N_test):\n",
    "        # Choose parameters (p,d,q) for ARIMA depended on the population of the state\n",
    "        # and use larger lag 8 for long-period prediction\n",
    "        try:\n",
    "            if sum(training) / len(training) > 1500:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(8,2,1))\n",
    "            elif time < 14:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(1,1,1))\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(8,2,1))\n",
    "            model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)\n",
    "        except:\n",
    "            # In case the model cannot converge with the larger lag parameters.\n",
    "            model = ARIMA(history, order=(1,1,0))\n",
    "            model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)\n",
    "\n",
    "        output = model_fit.forecast()\n",
    "        yhat = output[0]\n",
    "        # Force the result to at least increase by a small value to avoid predictions of all-zeros.\n",
    "        if yhat[0] < 0.5:\n",
    "            yhat[0]=0.5\n",
    "\n",
    "        # Hawaii is a speacial case that cause very larger error, so it has differnet treatment.\n",
    "        if state == 'Hawaii':\n",
    "            if time < 14:\n",
    "                yhat[0] = 150\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                yhat[0] = 100\n",
    "        \n",
    "        model_predictions.append(yhat)\n",
    "        true_test_value = yhat\n",
    "        # Feedback the result to history for the next prediction\n",
    "        history.append(true_test_value)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # Process the results\n",
    "    M = []\n",
    "    for m in model_predictions:\n",
    "        M.append(m.tolist()[0])\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # Restore the values from differences\n",
    "    training.insert(0, training_data['Confirmed'].values[0])\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(training)):\n",
    "        training[i] = training[i-1] + training[i]\n",
    "    M[0] = training[-1] + M[0]\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(M)):\n",
    "        M[i] = M[i-1] + M[i]\n",
    "        if i >=16:\n",
    "            # Process the outliers\n",
    "            if state in outliers1:\n",
    "                M[i] = M[i] + M[0] / 50\n",
    "            elif state in outliers2:\n",
    "                M[i] = M[i] - M[0] / 100\n",
    "    print(f\"Done: {state}...{M}\")\n",
    "    \n",
    "    result_confirmed[state] = M\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 2.3 Forecasting Deaths"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "tags": [
     "outputPrepend"
    ]
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "output_type": "stream",
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "4794173, 405.23619007543766, 408.51421194393936, 411.8059655411977, 415.13862162685035, 418.4975507745873, 421.8835838354647, 425.3122222576167, 428.8438572621444, 432.4409172190872, 436.0682647661661, 439.742416257244, 443.45612735438914]\n",
      "Processing: Illinois...\n",
      "Done: Illinois...[8256.466174540225, 8280.97453887236, 8299.268347993395, 8312.591936763092, 8321.276823243672, 8329.887518830206, 8338.402211754825, 8353.53330180709, 8369.580213277892, 8382.081294205742, 8390.506706258193, 8396.313905994912, 8402.10832867165, 8408.64659270984, 8418.087476133307, 8427.441090399183, 8434.370997524327, 8438.394622874612, 8440.810707564991, 8443.194530360495, 8446.18209288335, 8450.265473211075, 8453.790903931444, 8455.497483970197, 8455.997483970197, 8456.497483970197]\n",
      "Processing: Indiana...\n",
      "Done: Indiana...[3297.247933989468, 3298.1108651164145, 3298.781759620643, 3299.305201716905, 3299.6914791142895, 3299.9429656463803, 3300.1929656463803, 3300.4429656463803, 3300.6929656463803, 3300.9429656463803, 3301.1929656463803, 3301.4429656463803, 3301.6929656463803, 3301.9429656463803, 3302.1929656463803, 3302.4429656463803, 3302.6929656463803, 3302.9429656463803, 3303.1929656463803, 3303.4429656463803, 3303.6929656463803, 3303.9429656463803, 3304.1929656463803, 3304.4429656463803, 3304.6929656463803, 3304.9429656463803]\n",
      "Processing: Iowa...\n",
      "Done: Iowa...[1129.738500094612, 1138.3234525750793, 1147.4884262095186, 1156.4612273939426, 1165.5858345170218, 1174.7848796323765, 1184.0174816847589, 1193.3018542699397, 1202.629882088944, 1211.9483341029863, 1221.2949718694608, 1230.668749963929, 1240.0696946759358, 1249.497803251437, 1258.838535340934, 1268.188596285942, 1277.5414939865086, 1286.8928198956423, 1296.2683196886153, 1305.6564812956997, 1315.028517004083, 1324.377121207655, 1333.7251713993098, 1343.0671095141483, 1352.410154587499, 1361.763200727325]\n",
      "Processing: Kansas...\n",
      "Done: Kansas...[456.54129372751675, 461.99381599009564, 467.4204887424265, 472.8188817879585, 478.18908910736667, 483.5311073296328, 488.84493730120494, 494.13057999689613, 499.38803627326206, 504.617308233535, 509.8183970760735, 514.9913045492347, 520.1360326358172, 525.252583648046, 530.309059673222, 535.3218301084318, 540.2824939791935, 545.1953626829, 550.0582235651477, 554.8722118120596, 559.6367445573303, 564.3521208623597, 569.0181870783337, 573.6350219429426, 578.2025845509996, 582.7208959430877]\n",
      "Processing: Kentucky...\n",
      "Done: Kentucky...[944.7408284473888, 956.9658465541344, 969.2402824790988, 981.5062570678712, 993.756226121576, 1005.9893573028561, 1018.205701126259, 1030.405415195392, 1042.5886595159575, 1054.7555885493084, 1066.9063408885236, 1079.0410497576866, 1091.159843124076, 1103.2628342834046, 1115.6541984572457, 1128.103184637331, 1140.612032457461, 1153.1478140471422, 1165.6974065703391, 1178.2757583133248, 1190.9360814577801, 1203.7156671278906, 1216.5733473184882, 1229.4993364723787, 1242.4747826552962, 1255.496822531115]\n",
      "Processing: Louisiana...\n",
      "Done: Louisiana...[4976.191029097738, 5000.92525351374, 5025.541031418233, 5049.831115099186, 5073.827519779992, 5097.525228356121, 5120.924969740078, 5144.026598029808, 5166.83011446083, 5189.335491280126, 5211.542719097451, 5233.45178573751, 5255.062691653662, 5276.375421620925, 5300.92777025031, 5325.350951391808, 5350.406154921991, 5375.895383603242, 5400.762479976928, 5426.228251697308, 5451.974531374905, 5479.126824271984, 5506.792789449405, 5535.0451335884945, 5563.846950003626, 5592.58145007621]\n",
      "Processing: Maine...\n",
      "Done: Maine...[132.5, 133.0, 133.5, 134.0, 134.5, 135.0, 135.5, 136.0, 136.5, 137.0, 137.5, 138.0, 138.5, 139.0, 139.5392108373464, 140.0837923910998, 140.62845426799743, 141.18719545871593, 141.7578939952976, 142.3354554244544, 142.92656440365442, 143.53098460145947, 144.14460336600183, 144.76986258435517, 145.4079041685837, 146.05783603145508]\n",
      "Processing: Maryland...\n",
      "Done: Maryland...[3761.756863102609, 3767.0194273027832, 3772.3740798217573, 3777.341646122008, 3782.0669491214794, 3786.5062627662583, 3790.6728366943375, 3794.5626846949026, 3798.177021144281, 3801.5154915185162, 3804.5782062926723, 3807.3651274546974, 3809.8762562633515, 3812.11158662391, 3813.027838948027, 3813.762703496573, 3814.262703496573, 3814.762703496573, 3815.262703496573, 3815.762703496573, 3816.262703496573, 3816.762703496573, 3817.262703496573, 3817.762703496573, 3818.262703496573, 3818.762703496573]\n",
      "Processing: Massachusetts...\n",
      "Done: Massachusetts...[9071.586333380938, 9086.348632622718, 9099.281343114848, 9110.278350300954, 9120.972517151586, 9131.92286366268, 9140.74772383956, 9149.906153354888, 9159.667166425455, 9168.310939179339, 9175.8460364233, 9183.695331184976, 9191.041941550719, 9197.149247208237, 9203.292270850005, 9209.398433662864, 9214.555123702155, 9219.125537934622, 9223.769358630692, 9227.761787086183, 9230.989833625277, 9234.11101707679, 9236.930849867938, 9238.99088212672, 9240.686259548716, 9242.214101253077]\n",
      "Processing: Michigan...\n",
      "Done: Michigan...[6762.0488221474525, 6769.0233859286445, 6777.674275224599, 6786.368300370553, 6796.236276371464, 6807.599645961659, 6817.380469401862, 6828.6522599895015, 6840.107210326607, 6852.4978467510655, 6865.435370681978, 6879.0324913277545, 6893.141753515464, 6907.639094874134, 6922.936563908505, 6938.858239957272, 6955.502792657504, 6972.781855682742, 6990.720775927958, 7009.3197165183265, 7028.617739105234, 7048.668464152375, 7069.449548672182, 7090.975552965959, 7113.242624209327, 7136.272301934728]\n",
      "Processing: Minnesota...\n",
      "Done: Minnesota...[1872.327960426742, 1878.139150377603, 1883.959359545257, 1889.741219228868, 1895.4889469513685, 1901.2021263471813, 1906.8807617227928, 1912.5248246444482, 1918.1342948347453, 1923.709152031303, 1929.2493804092899, 1934.7549668464017, 1940.2258978252694, 1945.6621609435804, 1951.1401604358548, 1956.6187452430968, 1962.1200779206529, 1967.6322190825804, 1973.1616020886802, 1978.7047588139842, 1984.2635546416143, 1989.836985655994, 1995.4255905003386, 2001.0290783356518, 2006.6476060779908, 2012.2810898840087]\n",
      "Processing: Mississippi...\n",
      "Done: Mississippi...[2486.82790052821, 2501.314566805128, 2515.7426578694203, 2530.293954592901, 2544.922392192333, 2559.6396418239115, 2574.4427455394093, 2589.3324575639713, 2604.3085793050514, 2619.3711604948276, 2634.5201913300907, 2649.7556743497307, 2665.0776084190506, 2680.4859947049654, 2696.0694079421655, 2711.766202279372, 2727.5507944211595, 2743.4236240433693, 2759.3962790714636, 2775.4746401270463, 2791.6619605962414, 2807.9831059488984, 2824.4176286142065, 2840.9489513059298, 2857.5777394097677, 2874.314204277004]\n",
      "Processing: Missouri...\n",
      "Done: Missouri...[1561.0539580215154, 1575.4922590488168, 1589.8363296105479, 1604.0995745155408, 1618.2809641824208, 1632.38186490681, 1646.4015424415293, 1660.3400703613863, 1674.197359486681, 1687.9745096395095, 1701.6695259836213, 1715.2831353297308, 1728.809627800559, 1742.260242723925, 1755.5815676289228, 1768.8129895014883, 1781.9544919779978, 1795.0013193674636, 1807.9600424739876, 1820.8240654322803, 1833.5895688834416, 1846.257504428446, 1858.8698982613557, 1871.4059426720728, 1883.8759431684412, 1896.274791717566]\n",
      "Processing: Montana...\n",
      "Done: Montana...[107.09451868268073, 110.20218492701174, 113.32738959351636, 116.47011950337618, 119.63036868181977, 122.80813195287085, 126.00340486655399, 129.216183247457, 132.4464636954251, 135.6942432089977, 138.95951907760104, 142.24228918209067, 145.54255187444832, 148.8603053271935, 152.29050407158616, 155.75695049699388, 159.23665786574924, 162.75033115505204, 166.30952684532366, 169.918438692253, 173.55073337455377, 177.236809032143, 180.97030200081724, 184.73730297393777, 188.51112767286236, 192.3531624215133]\n",
      "Processing: Nebraska...\n",
      "Done: Nebraska...[398.37696084653135, 400.27734135114514, 401.95288503629035, 403.7436641587636, 405.49511219890724, 407.2774844850981, 409.05884666726377, 410.85371498332864, 412.6554900438741, 414.4671720100978, 416.28739663968713, 418.11678398792327, 419.95505221208145, 421.8023292459201, 423.62021595772444, 425.444211793292, 427.27856348420715, 429.12087807677466, 430.9722439579322, 432.8321658060722, 434.700868788593, 436.5782506091774, 438.46435763992866, 440.35916864242665, 442.2626931019915, 444.1749265632029]\n",
      "Processing: Nevada...\n",
      "Done: Nevada...[1306.7535093316699, 1308.9856140117606, 1320.2585876563198, 1332.5614093237139, 1345.0169375496348, 1357.5290083907776, 1370.0869649600663, 1382.689533716954, 1395.3364793945789, 1408.027698661376, 1420.76311042378, 1433.5426436842338, 1446.3662358287295, 1459.2338325323544, 1472.3201409485791, 1485.4857001842556, 1498.7112078175544, 1512.0020061237967, 1525.3331014088137, 1538.7436603389483, 1552.2362263854905, 1565.867203780216, 1579.5884161679357, 1593.3790334868454, 1607.243226210307, 1621.167343495891]\n",
      "Processing: New Hampshire...\n",
      "Done: New Hampshire...[432.5, 433.0, 433.5, 434.0, 434.5, 435.0, 435.5, 436.0, 436.5, 437.0, 437.5, 438.0, 438.5, 439.0, 439.5, 440.0, 440.5, 441.0, 441.5, 442.0, 442.5, 443.0, 443.5, 444.0, 444.5, 445.0]\n",
      "Processing: New Jersey...\n",
      "Done: New Jersey...[15945.5, 15946.0, 15950.518979004342, 15954.949476559535, 15959.13125631018, 15963.630353839699, 15968.060804662704, 15971.777832021964, 15976.119246140526, 15981.293299546347, 15986.741246084677, 15992.492342889913, 15998.559080516388, 16004.881657963624, 16011.546076902381, 16018.772833559808, 16026.552301561205, 16034.877087781282, 16043.695680504516, 16053.05595669783, 16062.982187996939, 16073.532971321189, 16084.764280861897, 16096.679688298016, 16109.31465868473, 16122.67759585986]\n",
      "Processing: New Mexico...\n",
      "Done: New Mexico...[782.9970056838342, 787.3353313902577, 791.6462071562299, 795.9550783325358, 800.2601853238364, 804.561645659624, 808.8594480735452, 813.1535898421753, 817.4440679580479, 821.730879248276, 826.0140203330176, 830.2934883348464, 834.569280365291, 838.8413934154166, 842.9035388473184, 847.0930691067249, 851.1213438812722, 855.1056100598574, 859.0692884992038, 862.9692065934081, 866.8289443320984, 870.6072827757539, 874.3584603878428, 878.0359369740361, 881.6587839399454, 885.233988013816]\n",
      "Processing: New York...\n",
      "Done: New York...[32981.050845633865, 33002.80743273024, 33027.69252864437, 33052.534261756235, 33082.001671915146, 33110.89724942053, 33149.32241844842, 33200.26907161071, 33255.46569966169, 33313.259555374374, 33375.17242349208, 33440.591429256645, 33510.21995314492, 33591.95437728874, 33685.421187860054, 33785.30239633769, 33890.11330422617, 34000.56735801294, 34115.73901332967, 34239.14147260495, 34376.23051915975, 34525.519339929655, 34682.98816670009, 34847.60475783281, 35019.03549230214, 35197.46888110908]\n",
      "Processing: North Carolina...\n",
      "Done: North Carolina...[2725.0660907967717, 2748.6151088134106, 2772.232200780328, 2795.903488071044, 2819.628372014919, 2843.4065978482367, 2867.2378021639656, 2891.1214044215217, 2915.056444394023, 2939.0410046031643, 2963.0698251255226, 2986.8538699335863, 3010.688276677029, 3034.585402563264, 3058.9160048553813, 3083.3247170576424, 3107.8205035895808, 3132.345382395562, 3156.8184395041585, 3181.3537478867047, 3205.9930920087086, 3230.868564478288, 3255.8342716077414, 3280.892667035815, 3305.9996460274647, 3331.135789754499]\n",
      "Processing: North Dakota...\n",
      "Done: North Dakota...[145.48836664872576, 147.93039386549304, 150.38428522708924, 152.84369560408996, 155.30930768252506, 157.7810396706339, 160.25889359961837, 162.74286269168744, 165.23294176320104, 167.72912574136313, 170.23141010715477, 172.73979016850296, 175.25426195223204, 177.77482159173803, 180.26125622381716, 182.75308338919268, 185.24849943507968, 187.7418939674005, 190.2357289718828, 192.72160352810943, 195.20190282316264, 197.67800540843965, 200.1525930029629, 202.62462397475045, 205.09155677252284, 207.5533575186001]\n",
      "Processing: Ohio...\n",
      "Done: Ohio...[4140.0, 4150.111099338576, 4154.990178014715, 4161.955920879638, 4188.608777273829, 4204.781324018412, 4225.8662672833125, 4244.0092893998035, 4263.218415134451, 4281.448110142606, 4299.742383932141, 4317.568336968065, 4335.197924452864, 4352.4924728758115, 4369.522674574597, 4386.252490033339, 4402.700330762695, 4418.8567913789075, 4434.72664723333, 4450.30744224289, 4465.600400728045, 4480.604904261936, 4495.321271986619, 4509.749306230003, 4523.889131174206, 4537.740634460645]\n",
      "Processing: Oklahoma...\n",
      "Done: Oklahoma...[806.3033944643984, 814.0260183692936, 822.136111994427, 830.3596177562948, 838.6237427405279, 846.909152280523, 855.2107105470902, 863.5270528775876, 871.85781654218, 880.2029049623142, 888.5622926043123, 896.9359724029298, 905.3239428417421, 913.7262039038133, 922.5919519294265, 931.3942276066496, 940.3889188382175, 949.4484713835669, 958.5851901682777, 967.7108223096359, 976.8774171779437, 986.3703139937286, 995.9621848097405, 1005.6911668005158, 1015.5141534109806, 1025.434860171283]\n",
      "Processing: Oregon...\n",
      "Done: Oregon...[461.43141723023615, 463.83699427807426, 466.2517763769702, 468.6751375718312, 471.10709078835856, 473.5476374591208, 475.99677922570726, 478.4545173330587, 480.92085331328377, 483.39578845628233, 485.8793241672165, 488.3714615736106, 490.8722018296061, 493.3815465415754, 495.98564678415295, 498.6098984997732, 501.2565869095371, 503.918162327836, 506.6032682816266, 509.3066190702499, 512.038860802202, 514.8225455705906, 517.6332109833642, 520.4703658927198, 523.3307119435483, 526.2192041622714]\n",
      "Processing: Pennsylvania...\n",
      "Done: Pennsylvania...[7672.783840491686, 7682.699738998186, 7696.4940874267795, 7711.137601097887, 7719.329656996172, 7721.414683966286, 7724.566269862974, 7727.766059034966, 7733.002013694451, 7741.5704036138495, 7749.71795324613, 7754.3221147102895, 7756.138859984157, 7756.638859984157, 7757.138859984157, 7758.4919186907655, 7761.5939048174305, 7764.313103407022, 7765.450605460659, 7765.950605460659, 7766.450605460659, 7766.950605460659, 7767.450605460659, 7767.950605460659, 7768.450605460659, 7768.950605460659]\n",
      "Processing: Rhode Island...\n",
      "Done: Rhode Island...[1048.7117091873513, 1049.2782626248163, 1049.7782626248163, 1050.2782626248163, 1050.7782626248163, 1051.2782626248163, 1051.7782626248163, 1052.2782626248163, 1052.7782626248163, 1053.2782626248163, 1053.7782626248163, 1054.2782626248163, 1054.7782626248163, 1055.2782626248163, 1055.7782626248163, 1056.2782626248163, 1056.7782626248163, 1057.2782626248163, 1057.7782626248163, 1058.2782626248163, 1058.7782626248163, 1059.2782626248163, 1059.7782626248163, 1060.2782626248163, 1060.7782626248163, 1061.2782626248163]\n",
      "Processing: South Carolina...\n",
      "Done: South Carolina...[2734.0807967739747, 2748.5573389667056, 2763.127247652371, 2777.779281722589, 2792.5129659679956, 2807.3282315295096, 2822.2250331178134, 2837.203336028139, 2852.263108938345, 2867.4043262201394, 2882.6269650050967, 2897.931009157306, 2913.3164431819246, 2928.7832530010332, 2944.1749181429964, 2959.6279026957977, 2975.147054827081, 2990.718548650948, 3006.3669870548224, 3022.0822739740465, 3037.8304114122707, 3053.584295201452, 3069.3897359375974, 3085.2453403487425, 3101.151374958237, 3117.120891178267]\n",
      "Processing: South Dakota...\n",
      "Done: South Dakota...[169.32155983446418, 171.8190246795103, 174.33384292213583, 176.85306719753288, 179.37556757918827, 181.90128399855612, 184.43026485683833, 186.96243120721016, 189.4978143981825, 192.0363731356675, 194.5781390161851, 197.12303417971918, 199.6712767169961, 202.22274794586585, 204.66145075707274, 207.07826686958572, 209.4807246413876, 211.8643323210881, 214.25234187243686, 216.61337869513346, 218.93435125576102, 221.21169895113505, 223.45800220665674, 225.68324140246418, 227.88897204174333, 230.07267606325274]\n",
      "Processing: Tennessee...\n",
      "Done: Tennessee...[1767.1784597218825, 1777.881375148635, 1799.4164053630836, 1822.4512045110648, 1845.8007803614028, 1869.3146439841921, 1892.9736995304645, 1916.775543329757, 1940.719896851181, 1964.8067443998784, 1989.0361077680318, 2013.4080132195195, 2037.9224871838283, 2062.5795539289325, 2087.7714096177515, 2113.2008519342066, 2138.84102054774, 2164.6736492489918, 2190.7107251613493, 2216.939371526741, 2243.4353631530025, 2270.2539951741305, 2297.32693037668, 2324.6350252972984, 2352.1730461373354, 2379.942021770944]\n",
      "Processing: Texas...\n",
      "Done: Texas...[12926.210666066054, 13104.748739023627, 13278.73058950892, 13433.972288276169, 13553.928101611433, 13667.404750604013, 13788.336127260607, 13928.763300104565, 14086.072443344394, 14243.396911646087, 14393.702182807778, 14530.660275596088, 14662.423768383447, 14797.007431804941, 14939.14021996675, 15089.22349117292, 15240.76612050432, 15389.870870999941, 15533.99896293707, 15675.329168790644, 15817.615560274664, 15963.015405837665, 16112.070156011036, 16262.48252796672, 16412.270659938706, 16560.319021257743]\n",
      "Processing: Utah...\n",
      "Done: Utah...[408.0, 409.0, 410.0503457899254, 411.1293229047506, 412.2462944411163, 413.3972196362409, 414.58383873126394, 415.8053994980322, 417.0622247344195, 418.35417251618486, 419.6813030009483, 421.04358766175733, 422.4410373635694, 423.8736455751793, 424.8736455751793, 425.8736455751793, 426.8736455751793, 427.8736455751793, 428.8736455751793, 429.8736455751793, 430.8736455751793, 431.8736455751793, 432.8736455751793, 433.8736455751793, 434.8736455751793, 435.8736455751793]\n",
      "Processing: Vermont...\n",
      "Done: Vermont...[58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0, 58.0]\n",
      "Processing: Virginia...\n",
      "Done: Virginia...[2588.125687001739, 2597.094596602221, 2605.833219777754, 2614.6515712317196, 2623.425183257499, 2632.1075332911114, 2640.684125998452, 2649.150398077026, 2657.503492150442, 2665.745320601614, 2673.875170053138, 2681.893005318045, 2689.7983462785633, 2697.5914525346097, 2704.8751515997524, 2711.8937748904045, 2718.75382583997, 2725.435958104389, 2731.9636893871034, 2738.2746363532565, 2744.335081535427, 2750.1048141221395, 2755.628443408906, 2760.947370415954, 2766.056851506458, 2770.948967849341]\n",
      "Processing: Washington...\n",
      "Done: Washington...[1922.9135782535222, 1930.9337713203981, 1938.8773746916092, 1946.7596279906095, 1954.5792050125644, 1962.3361703185508, 1970.0304804010118, 1977.6621017109014, 1985.2310095333426, 1992.7371776277112, 2000.1805875932655, 2007.5612209146152, 2014.8790625236297, 2022.1340989160844, 2029.8292708783197, 2037.50469446656, 2045.210006769101, 2052.9197895215366, 2060.6407342588896, 2068.419571230774, 2076.265496658215, 2084.248630200101, 2092.26706671434, 2100.3389564375343, 2108.4585603071423, 2116.635619293057]\n",
      "Processing: West Virginia...\n",
      "Done: West Virginia...[219.57483336535378, 223.53939766914158, 227.63002443854973, 231.7171673238525, 235.8236341117053, 239.94542087137836, 244.0832408471679, 248.23697553021975, 252.40665200659075, 256.59227073325843, 260.7938361978592, 265.01135134700655, 269.2448191010348, 273.4942417783186, 277.9651886314037, 282.4609983282869, 287.02323080100496, 291.65560900606, 296.3631314108458, 301.12013153185063, 305.9402153693798, 310.8664248367739, 315.8494532015626, 320.90644085067294, 326.0402379218428, 331.252354284954]\n",
      "Processing: Wisconsin...\n",
      "Done: Wisconsin...[1126.9473770451607, 1131.9639427946515, 1136.9477703577315, 1141.8967808884988, 1146.811003073164, 1151.690501264568, 1156.5353456109174, 1161.3455947632456, 1166.1213098999592, 1170.8625462521893, 1175.5693597377872, 1180.2418039298082, 1184.879927747743, 1189.48378109295, 1194.275848060759, 1199.0644919749736, 1203.834776272972, 1208.60928618573, 1213.3638967572554, 1218.1130290584736, 1222.8606930333085, 1227.7054904657373, 1232.5627492764045, 1237.4175918365956, 1242.2902800373897, 1247.1599391940676]\n",
      "Processing: Wyoming...\n",
      "Done: Wyoming...[37.5, 38.0, 38.5, 39.0, 39.5, 40.0, 40.5, 41.0, 41.5, 42.0, 42.5, 43.0, 43.5, 44.0, 44.526619480719106, 45.05700022398874, 45.59842582658817, 46.132330081380786, 46.682322619891465, 47.234836342742796, 47.79953389020834, 48.373755605098694, 48.956259931515035, 49.54557968993834, 50.14306037602111, 50.74819807278509]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "N_test = 26\n",
    "\n",
    "# states in outliers1 are predited to have lower value than the ground truth from our cross-validation reults.\n",
    "# states in outliers2 are predited to have higher value than the ground truth from our cross-validation reults.\n",
    "outliers1 = ['Missouri', 'Kansas', 'North Dakota', 'Montana', 'North Dakota', 'Ohio', 'Kentucky', 'Arizona', 'Florida', 'South Dakota', 'Utah']\n",
    "outliers2 = ['Mississippi', 'Alabama', 'Idaho', 'Georgia', 'New York', 'Indiana', 'Oregon', 'Nebraska','Michigan','South Carolina']\n",
    "result_death = {}\n",
    "states = dp.states\n",
    "for state in states:\n",
    "    print(f\"Processing: {state}...\")\n",
    "    training_data, test_data = dp.access_split(state, 0)\n",
    "    data = dp.access(state)\n",
    "    training = training_data['Deaths'].values\n",
    "    testing = test_data['Deaths'].values\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Use the differences between two days to train our model\n",
    "    temp_data = []\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(training)):\n",
    "        temp_data.append(training[i] - training[i-1])\n",
    "    training = temp_data\n",
    "\n",
    "    #Starting training\n",
    "    history = [x for x in training]\n",
    "    model_predictions = []\n",
    "    for time in range(N_test):\n",
    "        # Choose parameters (p,d,q) for ARIMA depended on the population of the state\n",
    "        # and use larger lag 6 for long-period prediction\n",
    "        try:\n",
    "            if sum(training) / len(training) > 30:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(6,2,1))\n",
    "            elif time < 14:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(1,1,1))\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(6,2,1))\n",
    "            model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)\n",
    "        except:\n",
    "            # In case the model cannot converge with the larger lag parameters.\n",
    "            model = ARIMA(history, order=(1,1,0))\n",
    "            model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)\n",
    "        output = model_fit.forecast()\n",
    "        yhat = output[0]\n",
    "\n",
    "        # Force the result to at least increase by a small value to avoid predictions of all-zeros.\n",
    "        if yhat[0] < 0.5:\n",
    "            yhat[0]=0.5\n",
    "\n",
    "        # Hawaii and Vermont are speacial cases that cause very larger error, so they have differnet treatment.\n",
    "        if state == 'Hawaii':\n",
    "            if time < 18:\n",
    "                if yhat[0] > 2:\n",
    "                    yhat[0] = 2\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                yhat[0] = 3\n",
    "        if state == 'Vermont':\n",
    "            yhat[0] = 0\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "        model_predictions.append(yhat)\n",
    "        true_test_value = yhat\n",
    "\n",
    "        # Feedback the result to history for the next prediction\n",
    "        history.append(true_test_value)\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Process the results\n",
    "    M = []\n",
    "    for m in model_predictions:\n",
    "        M.append(m.tolist()[0])\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Restore the values from differences\n",
    "    training.insert(0, training_data['Deaths'].values[0])\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(training)):\n",
    "        training[i] = training[i-1] + training[i]\n",
    "    if state in outliers1:\n",
    "        M[0] = training[-1] + M[0] * 2\n",
    "    elif state in outliers2:\n",
    "        M[0] = training[-1] + M[0] * 0.5\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        M[0] = training[-1] + M[0]\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(M)):\n",
    "        if state in outliers1:\n",
    "            M[i] = M[i-1] + M[i] * 2\n",
    "        elif state in outliers2:\n",
    "            M[i] = M[i-1] + M[i] * 0.5\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            M[i] = M[i-1] + M[i]\n",
    "    print(f\"Done: {state}...{M}\")\n",
    "    \n",
    "    result_death[state] = M\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 2.4 Generate Submission Output File"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "tags": [
     "outputPrepend"
    ]
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "output_type": "stream",
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "\n",
      "Day 6/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 6/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 6/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 6/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 6/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 6/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 6/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 6/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 6/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 6/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 6/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 6/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 6/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 6/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 6/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 6/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 6/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 6/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 6/26, New York\n",
      "Day 6/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 6/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 6/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 6/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 6/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 6/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 6/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 6/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 6/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 6/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 6/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 6/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 6/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 6/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 6/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 6/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 6/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 6/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 7/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 7/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 7/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 7/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 7/26, California\n",
      "Day 7/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 7/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 7/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 7/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 7/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 7/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 7/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 7/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 7/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 7/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 7/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 7/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 7/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 7/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 7/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 7/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 7/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 7/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 7/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 7/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 7/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 7/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 7/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 7/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 7/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 7/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 7/26, New York\n",
      "Day 7/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 7/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 7/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 7/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 7/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 7/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 7/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 7/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 7/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 7/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 7/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 7/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 7/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 7/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 7/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 7/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 7/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 7/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 8/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 8/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 8/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 8/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 8/26, California\n",
      "Day 8/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 8/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 8/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 8/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 8/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 8/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 8/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 8/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 8/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 8/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 8/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 8/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 8/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 8/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 8/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 8/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 8/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 8/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 8/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 8/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 8/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 8/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 8/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 8/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 8/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 8/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 8/26, New York\n",
      "Day 8/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 8/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 8/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 8/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 8/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 8/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 8/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 8/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 8/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 8/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 8/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 8/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 8/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 8/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 8/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 8/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 8/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 8/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 9/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 9/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 9/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 9/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 9/26, California\n",
      "Day 9/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 9/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 9/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 9/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 9/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 9/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 9/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 9/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 9/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 9/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 9/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 9/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 9/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 9/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 9/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 9/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 9/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 9/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 9/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 9/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 9/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 9/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 9/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 9/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 9/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 9/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 9/26, New York\n",
      "Day 9/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 9/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 9/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 9/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 9/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 9/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 9/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 9/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 9/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 9/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 9/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 9/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 9/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 9/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 9/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 9/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 9/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 9/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 10/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 10/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 10/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 10/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 10/26, California\n",
      "Day 10/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 10/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 10/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 10/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 10/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 10/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 10/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 10/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 10/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 10/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 10/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 10/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 10/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 10/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 10/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 10/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 10/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 10/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 10/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 10/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 10/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 10/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 10/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 10/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 10/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 10/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 10/26, New York\n",
      "Day 10/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 10/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 10/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 10/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 10/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 10/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 10/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 10/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 10/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 10/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 10/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 10/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 10/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 10/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 10/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 10/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 10/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 10/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 11/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 11/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 11/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 11/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 11/26, California\n",
      "Day 11/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 11/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 11/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 11/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 11/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 11/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 11/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 11/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 11/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 11/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 11/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 11/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 11/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 11/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 11/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 11/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 11/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 11/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 11/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 11/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 11/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 11/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 11/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 11/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 11/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 11/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 11/26, New York\n",
      "Day 11/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 11/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 11/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 11/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 11/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 11/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 11/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 11/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 11/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 11/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 11/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 11/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 11/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 11/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 11/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 11/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 11/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 11/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 12/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 12/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 12/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 12/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 12/26, California\n",
      "Day 12/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 12/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 12/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 12/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 12/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 12/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 12/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 12/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 12/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 12/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 12/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 12/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 12/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 12/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 12/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 12/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 12/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 12/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 12/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 12/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 12/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 12/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 12/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 12/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 12/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 12/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 12/26, New York\n",
      "Day 12/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 12/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 12/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 12/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 12/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 12/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 12/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 12/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 12/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 12/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 12/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 12/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 12/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 12/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 12/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 12/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 12/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 12/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 13/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 13/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 13/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 13/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 13/26, California\n",
      "Day 13/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 13/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 13/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 13/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 13/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 13/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 13/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 13/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 13/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 13/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 13/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 13/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 13/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 13/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 13/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 13/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 13/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 13/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 13/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 13/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 13/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 13/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 13/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 13/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 13/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 13/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 13/26, New York\n",
      "Day 13/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 13/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 13/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 13/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 13/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 13/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 13/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 13/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 13/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 13/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 13/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 13/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 13/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 13/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 13/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 13/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 13/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 13/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 14/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 14/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 14/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 14/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 14/26, California\n",
      "Day 14/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 14/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 14/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 14/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 14/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 14/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 14/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 14/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 14/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 14/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 14/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 14/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 14/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 14/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 14/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 14/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 14/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 14/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 14/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 14/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 14/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 14/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 14/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 14/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 14/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 14/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 14/26, New York\n",
      "Day 14/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 14/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 14/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 14/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 14/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 14/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 14/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 14/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 14/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 14/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 14/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 14/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 14/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 14/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 14/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 14/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 14/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 14/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 15/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 15/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 15/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 15/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 15/26, California\n",
      "Day 15/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 15/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 15/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 15/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 15/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 15/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 15/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 15/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 15/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 15/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 15/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 15/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 15/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 15/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 15/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 15/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 15/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 15/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 15/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 15/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 15/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 15/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 15/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 15/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 15/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 15/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 15/26, New York\n",
      "Day 15/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 15/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 15/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 15/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 15/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 15/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 15/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 15/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 15/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 15/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 15/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 15/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 15/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 15/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 15/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 15/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 15/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 15/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 16/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 16/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 16/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 16/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 16/26, California\n",
      "Day 16/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 16/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 16/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 16/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 16/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 16/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 16/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 16/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 16/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 16/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 16/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 16/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 16/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 16/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 16/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 16/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 16/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 16/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 16/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 16/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 16/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 16/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 16/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 16/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 16/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 16/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 16/26, New York\n",
      "Day 16/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 16/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 16/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 16/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 16/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 16/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 16/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 16/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 16/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 16/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 16/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 16/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 16/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 16/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 16/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 16/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 16/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 16/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 17/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 17/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 17/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 17/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 17/26, California\n",
      "Day 17/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 17/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 17/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 17/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 17/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 17/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 17/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 17/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 17/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 17/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 17/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 17/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 17/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 17/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 17/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 17/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 17/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 17/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 17/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 17/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 17/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 17/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 17/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 17/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 17/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 17/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 17/26, New York\n",
      "Day 17/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 17/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 17/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 17/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 17/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 17/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 17/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 17/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 17/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 17/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 17/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 17/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 17/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 17/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 17/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 17/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 17/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 17/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 18/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 18/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 18/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 18/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 18/26, California\n",
      "Day 18/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 18/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 18/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 18/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 18/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 18/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 18/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 18/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 18/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 18/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 18/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 18/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 18/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 18/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 18/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 18/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 18/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 18/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 18/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 18/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 18/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 18/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 18/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 18/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 18/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 18/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 18/26, New York\n",
      "Day 18/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 18/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 18/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 18/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 18/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 18/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 18/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 18/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 18/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 18/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 18/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 18/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 18/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 18/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 18/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 18/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 18/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 18/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 19/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 19/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 19/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 19/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 19/26, California\n",
      "Day 19/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 19/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 19/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 19/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 19/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 19/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 19/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 19/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 19/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 19/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 19/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 19/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 19/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 19/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 19/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 19/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 19/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 19/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 19/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 19/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 19/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 19/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 19/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 19/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 19/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 19/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 19/26, New York\n",
      "Day 19/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 19/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 19/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 19/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 19/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 19/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 19/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 19/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 19/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 19/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 19/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 19/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 19/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 19/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 19/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 19/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 19/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 19/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 20/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 20/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 20/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 20/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 20/26, California\n",
      "Day 20/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 20/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 20/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 20/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 20/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 20/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 20/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 20/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 20/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 20/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 20/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 20/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 20/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 20/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 20/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 20/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 20/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 20/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 20/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 20/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 20/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 20/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 20/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 20/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 20/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 20/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 20/26, New York\n",
      "Day 20/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 20/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 20/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 20/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 20/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 20/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 20/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 20/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 20/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 20/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 20/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 20/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 20/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 20/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 20/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 20/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 20/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 20/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 21/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 21/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 21/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 21/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 21/26, California\n",
      "Day 21/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 21/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 21/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 21/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 21/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 21/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 21/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 21/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 21/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 21/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 21/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 21/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 21/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 21/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 21/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 21/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 21/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 21/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 21/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 21/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 21/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 21/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 21/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 21/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 21/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 21/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 21/26, New York\n",
      "Day 21/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 21/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 21/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 21/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 21/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 21/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 21/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 21/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 21/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 21/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 21/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 21/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 21/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 21/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 21/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 21/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 21/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 21/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 22/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 22/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 22/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 22/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 22/26, California\n",
      "Day 22/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 22/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 22/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 22/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 22/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 22/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 22/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 22/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 22/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 22/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 22/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 22/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 22/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 22/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 22/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 22/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 22/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 22/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 22/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 22/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 22/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 22/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 22/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 22/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 22/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 22/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 22/26, New York\n",
      "Day 22/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 22/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 22/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 22/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 22/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 22/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 22/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 22/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 22/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 22/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 22/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 22/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 22/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 22/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 22/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 22/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 22/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 22/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 23/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 23/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 23/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 23/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 23/26, California\n",
      "Day 23/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 23/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 23/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 23/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 23/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 23/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 23/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 23/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 23/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 23/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 23/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 23/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 23/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 23/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 23/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 23/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 23/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 23/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 23/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 23/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 23/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 23/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 23/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 23/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 23/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 23/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 23/26, New York\n",
      "Day 23/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 23/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 23/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 23/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 23/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 23/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 23/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 23/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 23/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 23/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 23/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 23/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 23/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 23/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 23/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 23/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 23/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 23/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 24/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 24/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 24/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 24/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 24/26, California\n",
      "Day 24/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 24/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 24/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 24/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 24/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 24/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 24/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 24/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 24/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 24/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 24/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 24/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 24/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 24/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 24/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 24/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 24/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 24/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 24/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 24/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 24/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 24/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 24/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 24/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 24/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 24/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 24/26, New York\n",
      "Day 24/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 24/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 24/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 24/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 24/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 24/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 24/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 24/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 24/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 24/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 24/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 24/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 24/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 24/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 24/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 24/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 24/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 24/26, Wyoming\n",
      "Day 25/26, Alabama\n",
      "Day 25/26, Alaska\n",
      "Day 25/26, Arizona\n",
      "Day 25/26, Arkansas\n",
      "Day 25/26, California\n",
      "Day 25/26, Colorado\n",
      "Day 25/26, Connecticut\n",
      "Day 25/26, Delaware\n",
      "Day 25/26, Florida\n",
      "Day 25/26, Georgia\n",
      "Day 25/26, Hawaii\n",
      "Day 25/26, Idaho\n",
      "Day 25/26, Illinois\n",
      "Day 25/26, Indiana\n",
      "Day 25/26, Iowa\n",
      "Day 25/26, Kansas\n",
      "Day 25/26, Kentucky\n",
      "Day 25/26, Louisiana\n",
      "Day 25/26, Maine\n",
      "Day 25/26, Maryland\n",
      "Day 25/26, Massachusetts\n",
      "Day 25/26, Michigan\n",
      "Day 25/26, Minnesota\n",
      "Day 25/26, Mississippi\n",
      "Day 25/26, Missouri\n",
      "Day 25/26, Montana\n",
      "Day 25/26, Nebraska\n",
      "Day 25/26, Nevada\n",
      "Day 25/26, New Hampshire\n",
      "Day 25/26, New Jersey\n",
      "Day 25/26, New Mexico\n",
      "Day 25/26, New York\n",
      "Day 25/26, North Carolina\n",
      "Day 25/26, North Dakota\n",
      "Day 25/26, Ohio\n",
      "Day 25/26, Oklahoma\n",
      "Day 25/26, Oregon\n",
      "Day 25/26, Pennsylvania\n",
      "Day 25/26, Rhode Island\n",
      "Day 25/26, South Carolina\n",
      "Day 25/26, South Dakota\n",
      "Day 25/26, Tennessee\n",
      "Day 25/26, Texas\n",
      "Day 25/26, Utah\n",
      "Day 25/26, Vermont\n",
      "Day 25/26, Virginia\n",
      "Day 25/26, Washington\n",
      "Day 25/26, West Virginia\n",
      "Day 25/26, Wisconsin\n",
      "Day 25/26, Wyoming\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "forecastID = [x for x in range(N_test*50)]\n",
    "deaths = []\n",
    "confirmed = []\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(N_test):\n",
    "    for s in states:\n",
    "        print(f\"Day {i}/{N_test}, {s}\")\n",
    "        confirmed.append(result_confirmed[s][i])\n",
    "        deaths.append(result_death[s][i])\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "round1_path = os.path.join(submissions_dir, 'Team4_Round1.csv')\n",
    "final = pd.DataFrame(list(zip(forecastID, confirmed, deaths)), \n",
    "               columns =['ForecastID', 'Confirmed', 'Deaths']) \n",
    "final.to_csv(round1_path, index=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "## 3. Round 2 Forecasting\n",
    "\n",
    "In this section, we build and train an ARIMA model to predict COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths for each state between Dec 7 and Dec 13, using data from April 12 to December 5. The data from April 12 to November 22 is given, and the data from November 23 to December 5 is obtained by crawling Johns Hopkins University's dataset for confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. Each state will have its own model and its own set of hyperparameters, with further tweaks from round 1, as the trends can be wildly different for different states. Data for round 1 is located in the data/round2/ directory."
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 3.1 Loading Round 2 Data"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import math\n",
    "from pandas.plotting import lag_plot\n",
    "from datetime import datetime\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARIMA\n",
    "from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error\n",
    "from pandas.plotting import autocorrelation_plot\n",
    "import warnings\n",
    "warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "train_data_path = os.path.join(data_round2_dir, \"train_round2-1206.csv\")\n",
    "test_data_path  = os.path.join(data_round2_dir, \"test_round2.csv\")\n",
    "graph_data_path = os.path.join(data_round2_dir, \"graph_round2.csv\")\n",
    "dp = CoreData(train_data_path)\n",
    "dp.load(False)"
   ],
   "cell_type": "code",
   "metadata": {},
   "execution_count": 5,
   "outputs": []
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 3.2 Forecasting Confirmed Cases"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "tags": []
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "output_type": "stream",
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Processing: Alabama...\n",
      "Done: Alabama...[272669.98179536714, 275570.3383062341, 278500.9147520522, 281446.73889314715, 284404.90326924203, 287374.84733933565, 290356.4647595873]\n",
      "Processing: Alaska...\n",
      "Done: Alaska...[37787.384327263164, 38541.17005351193, 39298.091000962275, 40058.18163169942, 40821.444167034606, 41587.87939070611, 42357.48744146059]\n",
      "Processing: Arizona...\n",
      "Done: Arizona...[370028.64951676835, 375730.08576331375, 381470.67035746237, 387231.332681692, 393016.10467836977, 398824.13098247896, 404655.6046496726]\n",
      "Processing: Arkansas...\n",
      "Done: Arkansas...[172587.526800073, 174238.77731224202, 175899.46252033062, 177566.05680243342, 179239.1350913074, 180918.6043032323, 182681.8045903383]\n",
      "Processing: California...\n",
      "Done: California...[1393508.2844256593, 1421100.2647020023, 1449588.1705362909, 1479361.6878073032, 1510386.3783558467, 1542696.415496824, 1575421.9963499575]\n",
      "Processing: Colorado...\n",
      "Done: Colorado...[264498.7200745689, 268660.61338492215, 272916.76978125394, 277216.0648258651, 281541.0687655718, 285885.8341743995, 290248.3304815011]\n",
      "Processing: Connecticut...\n",
      "Done: Connecticut...[129695.25268065774, 131329.5456505293, 133029.0895424721, 137315.10310448523, 141606.52343814293, 145901.08521753424, 150199.18538532805]\n",
      "Processing: Delaware...\n",
      "Done: Delaware...[40622.019460042386, 41340.4965514214, 42061.07936665259, 42784.12110139984, 43509.60251360724, 44237.524900054304, 44967.88849782094]\n",
      "Processing: Florida...\n",
      "Done: Florida...[1067845.422742869, 1077461.7395527235, 1087143.3076184609, 1096857.485270509, 1106609.203257026, 1116397.6359376733, 1126222.960472537]\n",
      "Processing: Georgia...\n",
      "Done: Georgia...[505402.5832591363, 509398.8390780678, 513409.1350570976, 517433.3055422224, 521471.31448200817, 525523.227460427, 529589.0248093448]\n",
      "Processing: Hawaii...\n",
      "Done: Hawaii...[18949.69535108913, 19058.450665200922, 19167.754785224337, 19277.508614113358, 19387.692956275983, 19498.304086228174, 19609.341323413788]\n",
      "Processing: Idaho...\n",
      "Done: Idaho...[112000.89785453599, 113375.7584303386, 114778.24796527442, 116182.62692064048, 117593.50702765059, 119010.06205942357, 120432.43861823634]\n",
      "Processing: Illinois...\n",
      "Done: Illinois...[796392.029463866, 805506.0415298513, 814711.0195554618, 823961.995205983, 833249.0573844183, 842570.0290598864, 851924.4307582745]\n",
      "Processing: Indiana...\n",
      "Done: Indiana...[388344.1304376664, 395151.839621855, 402014.68469356187, 408919.34896197746, 415858.85318864975, 422829.5412101934, 429829.4991996324]\n",
      "Processing: Iowa...\n",
      "Done: Iowa...[246351.6847293721, 248167.89211345764, 250054.68736194354, 251975.8520061309, 253915.9370950419, 255868.35616160632, 257830.2997099185]\n",
      "Processing: Kansas...\n",
      "Done: Kansas...[171514.63868566306, 171562.43441859912, 171681.4371429505, 171751.6600100297, 173920.73212523843, 175027.28244667876, 176684.83788550596]\n",
      "Processing: Kentucky...\n",
      "Done: Kentucky...[204051.08228266574, 207369.96957776445, 210718.24626101466, 214078.04254687447, 217451.80502282645, 220839.2020948459, 224240.27565846237]\n",
      "Processing: Louisiana...\n",
      "Done: Louisiana...[252916.33925022514, 255650.85197271826, 257991.19237921402, 260513.73494204672, 262969.69355462235, 265466.4668388422, 267957.69488180545]\n",
      "Processing: Maine...\n",
      "Done: Maine...[13585.873768940304, 13828.377867813171, 14072.641799865687, 14589.710144194549, 15107.707726254583, 15626.597673282713, 16146.371402054321]\n",
      "Processing: Maryland...\n",
      "Done: Maryland...[217773.51865025892, 220544.1707972435, 223326.17001482332, 226117.4560365988, 228917.70118340474, 231726.85117295707, 234544.89770627124]\n",
      "Processing: Massachusetts...\n",
      "Done: Massachusetts...[261433.28863074302, 266012.94537793234, 270602.67482745915, 280432.853691836, 290274.97654671734, 300129.0495924354, 309995.09297264525]\n",
      "Processing: Michigan...\n",
      "Done: Michigan...[435175.9307834755, 441133.25818788196, 447943.3859352095, 454519.4921459142, 461199.5646543195, 467878.4972985121, 474588.96501089854]\n",
      "Processing: Minnesota...\n",
      "Done: Minnesota...[356660.7624884042, 362530.78620729997, 368436.6655010489, 374369.8322728503, 380328.23196496937, 386311.3623381894, 392319.09995376656]\n",
      "Processing: Mississippi...\n",
      "Done: Mississippi...[166572.4021050723, 168268.25183818897, 169984.77128124537, 171711.94752231846, 173446.81413017094, 175188.49274975676, 176936.72342353]\n",
      "Processing: Missouri...\n",
      "Done: Missouri...[333477.29229470715, 337531.1843694159, 341603.34014099254, 345691.7173408193, 349796.5176634405, 353917.7032714555, 358055.2954065039]\n",
      "Processing: Montana...\n",
      "Done: Montana...[68765.68429886275, 69660.98283872925, 70560.0604596011, 71462.90733318914, 72369.52360259376, 73279.90930564266, 74194.06362747218]\n",
      "Processing: Nebraska...\n",
      "Done: Nebraska...[141690.1022326394, 143582.80777463692, 145484.52603543823, 147393.88085006678, 149310.80406591395, 151235.2923712113, 153167.34043236292]\n",
      "Processing: Nevada...\n",
      "Done: Nevada...[170773.77119581163, 173427.85077874758, 176093.44606299105, 178769.7938360514, 181456.83079958006, 184154.55005049438, 186862.9522850375]\n",
      "Processing: New Hampshire...\n",
      "Done: New Hampshire...[25502.420425151937, 26121.57258405079, 26742.980833559002, 27876.826053033867, 29013.052958076314, 30151.66174821869, 31292.652565138917]\n",
      "Processing: New Jersey...\n",
      "Done: New Jersey...[373456.73306899675, 379136.01626227004, 384737.78476472636, 390382.71695728187, 396024.73503670294, 401681.4340926866, 407346.08139025024]\n",
      "Processing: New Mexico...\n",
      "Done: New Mexico...[109458.87003378864, 110927.85952024293, 112466.79671078011, 114056.20393721525, 115682.61570298788, 117336.72106141884, 119012.08218065853]\n",
      "Processing: New York...\n",
      "Done: New York...[715478.6948278084, 725121.508695564, 734767.5437208328, 744420.4068020177, 754081.141863062, 763750.0573077734, 773427.275800872]\n",
      "Processing: North Carolina...\n",
      "Done: North Carolina...[399766.4793294846, 404679.50514197006, 409604.01885399217, 414548.71854261874, 419513.0183629178, 424496.96167700575, 429500.5508093223]\n",
      "Processing: North Dakota...\n",
      "Done: North Dakota...[83582.03707500195, 84217.35749701627, 84863.55222654907, 84678.69621987322, 84497.01636971837, 84318.09756084275, 84141.83113039251]\n",
      "Processing: Ohio...\n",
      "Done: Ohio...[484971.6090016793, 493803.0938344913, 503244.358474063, 512437.40090849303, 521808.7471307818, 531146.3730637699, 540555.6925007171]\n",
      "Processing: Oklahoma...\n",
      "Done: Oklahoma...[219738.98721311166, 223005.62779642, 226285.8325390889, 227382.2158244655, 228492.17064226983, 229615.69727614606, 230752.7983014309]\n",
      "Processing: Oregon...\n",
      "Done: Oregon...[86056.47186945908, 87595.1793293332, 89142.82677962228, 90696.55171915192, 92256.62074944735, 93823.00963153323, 95395.72088702084]\n",
      "Processing: Pennsylvania...\n",
      "Done: Pennsylvania...[431137.46384019876, 439472.5971185772, 447969.9647698105, 456562.8074573904, 465218.2284391582, 473920.02245214593, 482660.1966606302]\n",
      "Processing: Rhode Island...\n",
      "Done: Rhode Island...[63119.20706515338, 64007.99180245291, 64908.75478941572, 67073.55073057742, 69241.00792074678, 71411.02712897974, 73583.61857517225]\n",
      "Processing: South Carolina...\n",
      "Done: South Carolina...[234614.241602755, 237116.49408415487, 239627.2781598999, 242147.98003328015, 244678.6891743632, 247219.4128253498, 249770.15615910187]\n",
      "Processing: South Dakota...\n",
      "Done: South Dakota...[86918.44034980073, 87853.30177302087, 88791.69606853598, 89733.5570603817, 90678.88291238957, 91627.67437251755, 92579.93076041735]\n",
      "Processing: Tennessee...\n",
      "Done: Tennessee...[405100.19103482267, 409586.35620761977, 414091.73690348276, 418615.2682516856, 423156.97102832806, 427716.86319275945, 432294.9379408551]\n",
      "Processing: Texas...\n",
      "Done: Texas...[1335774.7624677503, 1351167.2384938763, 1365972.9241724634, 1379977.9589651166, 1393506.6586847326, 1406732.3633372344, 1420661.092664699]\n",
      "Processing: Utah...\n",
      "Done: Utah...[218524.18498055625, 221625.24546419329, 224740.60892436112, 227868.65725194156, 231009.47384868472, 234163.0569385442, 237329.40458724313]\n",
      "Processing: Vermont...\n",
      "Done: Vermont...[5145.961737737505, 5276.839802767849, 5408.256447223197, 5643.09244497496, 5878.430992720525, 6114.2719783618495, 6350.615435023654]\n",
      "Processing: Virginia...\n",
      "Done: Virginia...[258225.5970922773, 261333.87906964534, 264445.3565802463, 267567.11828310665, 270699.9116653239, 273843.8162511874, 276998.84193965164]\n",
      "Processing: Washington...\n",
      "Done: Washington...[179692.74875166488, 181843.40010397704, 184020.9127475631, 186203.6249864537, 188395.3842904786, 190595.5011383693, 192804.10137676052]\n",
      "Processing: West Virginia...\n",
      "Done: West Virginia...[56267.55680870821, 57549.18637646079, 58835.8753210543, 60127.84275818105, 61425.08142066006, 62727.591794073625, 64035.37389498225]\n",
      "Processing: Wisconsin...\n",
      "Done: Wisconsin...[445957.4972964561, 450887.4225285764, 455837.9842980772, 460808.95403009583, 465800.3389610504, 470812.13010753645, 475844.3192142581]\n",
      "Processing: Wyoming...\n",
      "Done: Wyoming...[36720.108444447054, 37162.621563810266, 37632.577829022666, 38093.84948177957, 38561.43196957532, 39029.10054996461, 39499.43880493166]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "N_test = 7\n",
    "\n",
    "result_confirmed = {}\n",
    "states = dp.states\n",
    "outliers1 = ['Maine', 'Rhode Island', 'New Hampshire', 'Vermont', 'Massachusetts', 'Connecticut']\n",
    "outliers2 = ['Oklahoma', 'North Dakota']\n",
    "for state in states:\n",
    "    print(f\"Processing: {state}...\")\n",
    "    training_data, test_data = dp.access_split(state, 0)\n",
    "    data = dp.access(state)\n",
    "    training = training_data['Confirmed'].values\n",
    "    testing = test_data['Confirmed'].values\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Use the differences between two days to train our model\n",
    "    temp_data = []\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(training)):\n",
    "        temp_data.append(training[i] - training[i-1])\n",
    "    training = temp_data\n",
    "    \n",
    "    #Starting training\n",
    "    history = [x for x in training]\n",
    "    model_predictions = []\n",
    "    for time in range(N_test):\n",
    "        # Choose parameters (p,d,q) for ARIMA depended on the population of the state\n",
    "        # and use larger lag 5 for long-period prediction\n",
    "        try:\n",
    "            if sum(training) / len(training) > 5000:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(5,2,1))\n",
    "            elif time < 14:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(1,1,1))\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(5,2,1))\n",
    "            model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)\n",
    "        except:\n",
    "            # In case the model cannot converge with the larger lag parameters.\n",
    "            model = ARIMA(history, order=(1,1,0))\n",
    "            model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)\n",
    "        \n",
    "        output = model_fit.forecast()\n",
    "        yhat = output[0]\n",
    "        # Force the result to at least increase by a small value to avoid predictions of all-zeros.\n",
    "        if yhat[0] < 0.5:\n",
    "            yhat[0]=0.5\n",
    "        model_predictions.append(yhat)\n",
    "        true_test_value = yhat\n",
    "\n",
    "        # Feedback the result to history for the next prediction\n",
    "        history.append(true_test_value)\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Process the results\n",
    "    M = []\n",
    "    for m in model_predictions:\n",
    "        M.append(m.tolist()[0])\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # Restore the values from differences\n",
    "    training.insert(0, training_data['Confirmed'].values[0])\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(training)):\n",
    "        training[i] = training[i-1] + training[i]\n",
    "    M[0] = training[-1] + M[0]\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(M)):\n",
    "        M[i] = M[i-1] + M[i]\n",
    "        if i > 2:\n",
    "            # Process the outliers\n",
    "            if state in outliers1:\n",
    "                M[i] = M[i] + M[0] / 50\n",
    "            elif state in outliers2:\n",
    "                M[i] = M[i] - M[0] / 100\n",
    "    print(f\"Done: {state}...{M}\")\n",
    "    \n",
    "    result_confirmed[state] = M[-7:]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 3.3 Forecasting Deaths"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "tags": []
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "output_type": "stream",
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Processing: Alabama...\n",
      "15.949579831932773\n",
      "Done: Alabama...[3919.6759551471473, 3967.8576828698874, 4031.351291844034, 4095.755934113841, 4154.8255678194455, 4209.334978260334, 4263.186717461451]\n",
      "Processing: Alaska...\n",
      "0.5672268907563025\n",
      "Done: Alaska...[143.9, 146.94142619489145, 150.43129664621372, 153.88732207892414, 157.10620953560746, 160.26200616664838, 163.42784742760264]\n",
      "Processing: Arizona...\n",
      "28.718487394957982\n",
      "Done: Arizona...[6988.995890512271, 7033.543278383345, 7077.317778752232, 7118.582465481645, 7159.553848295182, 7201.2638805869465, 7243.484327096595]\n",
      "Processing: Arkansas...\n",
      "11.063025210084033\n",
      "Done: Arkansas...[2683.2368164611116, 2706.0835347548405, 2729.424640519195, 2753.0555978082716, 2776.78696201664, 2800.611821843556, 2824.5374231559254]\n",
      "Processing: California...\n",
      "81.04201680672269\n",
      "Done: California...[19972.427591535517, 20038.893199209404, 20140.639743726988, 20252.173003211676, 20353.869910963233, 20439.385352511403, 20519.121227691387]\n",
      "Processing: Colorado...\n",
      "12.88655462184874\n",
      "Done: Colorado...[3418.929603391287, 3493.214546551518, 3575.2951233465874, 3649.4116778965226, 3720.5697557338344, 3790.119043196873, 3860.6521283976044]\n",
      "Processing: Connecticut...\n",
      "19.294117647058822\n",
      "Done: Connecticut...[5167.1960402208715, 5194.390608873782, 5216.21029761713, 5231.139497973231, 5245.959692910676, 5263.081750942445, 5281.314770364909]\n",
      "Processing: Delaware...\n",
      "3.1848739495798317\n",
      "Done: Delaware...[794.8258473121189, 796.8880667667652, 798.5728388027104, 800.6069173303206, 802.6048135000142, 804.5942111684222, 806.5492289510948]\n",
      "Processing: Florida...\n",
      "78.63865546218487\n",
      "Done: Florida...[19262.41818443589, 19350.867440358757, 19441.569557566992, 19533.882160546083, 19625.78682263299, 19716.99613572614, 19808.01000330393]\n",
      "Processing: Georgia...\n",
      "39.38235294117647\n",
      "Done: Georgia...[9846.572483133716, 9893.680035471107, 9941.134245932168, 9986.659143299536, 10031.811537736994, 10077.160241623302, 10122.687579920572]\n",
      "Processing: Hawaii...\n",
      "1.0630252100840336\n",
      "Done: Hawaii...[263.32908165446463, 265.3127930275569, 267.5764771323263, 269.81491979620733, 272.00016666686724, 274.17373273305367, 276.35969824279164]\n",
      "Processing: Idaho...\n",
      "4.235294117647059\n",
      "Done: Idaho...[1055.4898940170435, 1086.1114178352016, 1112.6011787205468, 1140.9809168256982, 1168.7083201140124, 1196.8567424650298, 1224.9730101728246]\n",
      "Processing: Illinois...\n",
      "56.285714285714285\n",
      "Done: Illinois...[14263.09438877373, 14420.270432461266, 14596.568024044998, 14765.341621113681, 14929.271460893919, 15090.688765787647, 15254.276052723986]\n",
      "Processing: Indiana...\n",
      "24.785714285714285\n",
      "Done: Indiana...[6301.743490838615, 6375.185527149332, 6450.112465521688, 6519.992527934936, 6587.820402904846, 6656.520753540272, 6726.434105809403]\n",
      "Processing: Iowa...\n",
      "11.243697478991596\n",
      "Done: Iowa...[2798.1606461114216, 2879.3063001335354, 2954.652727711995, 3027.969284105546, 3102.543474423781, 3178.5172194554457, 3254.9123559944373]\n",
      "Processing: Kansas...\n",
      "7.26890756302521\n",
      "Done: Kansas...[1878.0993662539913, 1878.9993662539914, 2011.3648732114598, 2012.2648732114599, 2124.4160000134452, 2164.4748457644487, 2230.3411428736226]\n",
      "Processing: Kentucky...\n",
      "8.298319327731093\n",
      "Done: Kentucky...[2092.804225006395, 2112.685737035202, 2136.714858556067, 2157.8783897722074, 2179.788992819167, 2200.4926929646317, 2222.0895529819436]\n",
      "Processing: Louisiana...\n",
      "24.134453781512605\n",
      "Done: Louisiana...[6601.014289314856, 6623.8730928058485, 6643.271877382643, 6663.982931011201, 6683.866974385116, 6703.859950363619, 6723.526946097856]\n",
      "Processing: Maine...\n",
      "0.8739495798319328\n",
      "Done: Maine...[232.99946632238616, 239.86727422724084, 246.4097736220681, 252.3870221744039, 258.4160237697334, 264.5409706761426, 270.67333965863827]\n",
      "Processing: Maryland...\n",
      "19.369747899159663\n",
      "Done: Maryland...[4877.561270236934, 4907.5838281960305, 4937.577574917307, 4967.773491908414, 4997.827761423274, 5027.871438526677, 5057.891154991792]\n",
      "Processing: Massachusetts...\n",
      "43.05882352941177\n",
      "Done: Massachusetts...[11046.760855770599, 11087.597320161221, 11133.43626395641, 11178.742414729137, 11220.389725768939, 11263.577236394294, 11307.900209367463]\n",
      "Processing: Michigan...\n",
      "37.15126050420168\n",
      "Done: Michigan...[10455.164582696527, 10571.626253647342, 10693.19694092683, 10798.352035163418, 10910.07987062759, 11022.26881192352, 11134.998609931377]\n",
      "Processing: Minnesota...\n",
      "16.69327731092437\n",
      "Done: Minnesota...[4104.966585225429, 4164.316750755891, 4225.369421859563, 4288.078617655584, 4351.554400431232, 4414.867231618646, 4478.090329642905]\n",
      "Processing: Mississippi...\n",
      "16.23949579831933\n",
      "Done: Mississippi...[3976.783858383878, 3997.552619636944, 4021.469367469952, 4043.8684351543, 4064.8000989202073, 4085.5085813394853, 4106.836961473559]\n",
      "Processing: Missouri...\n",
      "17.50420168067227\n",
      "Done: Missouri...[4360.205985107562, 4449.654152819414, 4527.7194671775915, 4602.852156922503, 4680.651356273184, 4759.414635010797, 4837.920715560926]\n",
      "Processing: Montana...\n",
      "3.0672268907563027\n",
      "Done: Montana...[736.367436214998, 748.3188282929597, 756.9268711733578, 765.747616591758, 775.9099004698921, 785.7583877268974, 795.2097726745121]\n",
      "Processing: Nebraska...\n",
      "4.991596638655462\n",
      "Done: Nebraska...[1242.9661411960647, 1285.6256871571884, 1326.3472165375274, 1365.2687419821004, 1404.0513680679267, 1443.3197989262078, 1482.9408653369735]\n",
      "Processing: Nevada...\n",
      "9.256302521008404\n",
      "Done: Nevada...[2337.501473527931, 2361.8734406203866, 2387.564632442565, 2411.586888196336, 2436.3180426318045, 2460.2103898513683, 2484.3332974029995]\n",
      "Processing: New Hampshire...\n",
      "2.273109243697479\n",
      "Done: New Hampshire...[567.4933178378247, 571.6540192955085, 576.5881599495071, 581.8422925525441, 586.790320819032, 591.4984002275075, 596.1830038754424]\n",
      "Processing: New Jersey...\n",
      "62.903361344537814\n",
      "Done: New Jersey...[17340.293231979205, 17359.019675123076, 17378.642891096035, 17397.016906592497, 17414.330676067657, 17430.545346044368, 17445.777690437542]\n",
      "Processing: New Mexico...\n",
      "7.239495798319328\n",
      "Done: New Mexico...[1777.8111012911534, 1808.280850563657, 1839.1452815041991, 1867.340728881147, 1895.6388183531365, 1924.4033524608656, 1953.6342118909606]\n",
      "Processing: New York...\n",
      "107.44957983193277\n",
      "Done: New York...[35040.21667315215, 35132.714503028496, 35228.88401391944, 35326.23101787657, 35434.7754216324, 35538.39340577658, 35657.7718109986]\n",
      "Processing: North Carolina...\n",
      "22.915966386554622\n",
      "Done: North Carolina...[5570.750987927547, 5601.773893420611, 5636.216440918189, 5670.591047841502, 5704.28119569347, 5737.53784328214, 5770.935379324287]\n",
      "Processing: North Dakota...\n",
      "4.2521008403361344\n",
      "Done: North Dakota...[1032.32427541329, 1046.6285815059116, 1059.303236537408, 1072.0889217368313, 1085.2849107471218, 1098.4648612705726, 1111.6305178695695]\n",
      "Processing: Ohio...\n",
      "28.176470588235293\n",
      "Done: Ohio...[6994.525820609111, 7020.0911522978995, 7050.049837775862, 7078.059625359548, 7132.7284998007735, 7188.288491148502, 7242.761069273394]\n",
      "Processing: Oklahoma...\n",
      "7.563025210084033\n",
      "Done: Oklahoma...[1933.3247957710366, 1971.4590234988416, 2007.7982850387134, 2044.2823330566246, 2081.01691183703, 2118.1783209899977, 2155.462112644019]\n",
      "Processing: Oregon...\n",
      "4.121848739495798\n",
      "Done: Oregon...[1048.8451351766066, 1067.9095497010192, 1086.1802333298115, 1103.2304852589075, 1120.386584414752, 1137.9169959729966, 1155.5683231907315]\n",
      "Processing: Pennsylvania...\n",
      "44.94957983193277\n",
      "Done: Pennsylvania...[11324.552667773532, 11406.61782509279, 11520.637219314798, 11643.560936159793, 11766.770802447103, 11878.92845882458, 11984.385621609234]\n",
      "Processing: Rhode Island...\n",
      "5.6722689075630255\n",
      "Done: Rhode Island...[1421.3170815608128, 1429.468360847082, 1436.0125782005102, 1442.741625072525, 1449.755723113233, 1456.6798033346888, 1463.531621462601]\n",
      "Processing: South Carolina...\n",
      "18.840336134453782\n",
      "Done: South Carolina...[4592.551892165056, 4617.439934942495, 4644.605548406576, 4672.093414913981, 4699.445862300227, 4726.856494131167, 4754.376863304938]\n",
      "Processing: South Dakota...\n",
      "4.638655462184874\n",
      "Done: South Dakota...[1130.0, 1150.0, 1170.0, 1190.0, 1210.0, 1230.0, 1250.0]\n",
      "Processing: Tennessee...\n",
      "20.323529411764707\n",
      "Done: Tennessee...[4986.339174557788, 5038.293596452057, 5089.824781528938, 5139.684200715372, 5188.4248585300775, 5237.492672977276, 5287.192304455318]\n",
      "Processing: Texas...\n",
      "96.02521008403362\n",
      "Done: Texas...[23261.25394687247, 23394.436355920356, 23572.21116408102, 23748.821390269703, 23925.306708171986, 24090.166365727695, 24253.48774679633]\n",
      "Processing: Utah...\n",
      "3.869747899159664\n",
      "Done: Utah...[950.5131008610589, 963.1898885941638, 974.0755127105538, 983.787402063774, 994.1365175200195, 1004.9450031526598, 1015.6831380329141]\n",
      "Processing: Vermont...\n",
      "0.2184873949579832\n",
      "Done: Vermont...[81.49647848370574, 83.85155379734641, 86.50633055575928, 88.83621648619547, 91.20930656556648, 93.55865983418481, 95.94582419946752]\n",
      "Processing: Virginia...\n",
      "17.054621848739497\n",
      "Done: Virginia...[4210.100954210883, 4224.916156480827, 4239.876991283602, 4254.847021900059, 4269.932679190074, 4285.03631186648, 4300.116436805588]\n",
      "Processing: Washington...\n",
      "10.163865546218487\n",
      "Done: Washington...[2956.2775305058417, 2997.1667417093195, 3037.364572833524, 3072.849792963548, 3106.58849958203, 3140.5173593575305, 3175.215310019899]\n",
      "Processing: West Virginia...\n",
      "3.495798319327731\n",
      "Done: West Virginia...[862.9584783162685, 888.4923763208822, 914.5739524058739, 940.412116596132, 966.3417898695866, 992.3769058371105, 1018.5160209787251]\n",
      "Processing: Wisconsin...\n",
      "16.0\n",
      "Done: Wisconsin...[3991.391480280833, 4045.2225914056753, 4116.877717622041, 4182.149155475935, 4244.152421779013, 4301.82339776488, 4361.237845089458]\n",
      "Processing: Wyoming...\n",
      "1.1176470588235294\n",
      "Done: Wyoming...[275.56116872291966, 281.57642669417413, 288.2773803272988, 293.5234981128271, 299.85850599314256, 305.82170048017963, 312.1127877166531]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "N_test = 7\n",
    "\n",
    "result_death = {}\n",
    "states = dp.states\n",
    "\n",
    "outliers1 = ['Maine', 'Nebraska','Vermont', 'Colorado', 'Idaho', 'Kansas', 'Maine', 'Missouri', 'Oklahoma', 'Washington', 'West Virginia', 'Alabama', 'Alaska', 'Iowa']\n",
    "outliers2 = ['Montana', 'Wisconsin']\n",
    "\n",
    "for state in states:\n",
    "    print(f\"Processing: {state}...\")\n",
    "    training_data, test_data = dp.access_split(state, 0)\n",
    "    data = dp.access(state)\n",
    "    training = training_data['Deaths'].values\n",
    "    testing = test_data['Deaths'].values\n",
    "    temp_data = []\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(training)):\n",
    "        temp_data.append(training[i] - training[i-1])\n",
    "    training = temp_data\n",
    "    history = [x for x in training]\n",
    "    model_predictions = []\n",
    "    print(sum(training) / len(training))\n",
    "    for time in range(N_test):\n",
    "        # Choose parameters (p,d,q) for ARIMA depended on the population of the state\n",
    "        # and use larger lag 5 for long-period prediction\n",
    "        try:\n",
    "            if sum(training) / len(training) > 100:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(5,2,1))\n",
    "            elif time < 14:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(3,1,1))\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                model = ARIMA(history, order=(5,2,1))\n",
    "            model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)\n",
    "        except:\n",
    "            # In case the model cannot converge with the larger lag parameters.\n",
    "            model = ARIMA(history, order=(1,1,0))\n",
    "            model_fit = model.fit(disp=0)\n",
    "        output = model_fit.forecast()\n",
    "        yhat = output[0]\n",
    "\n",
    "        # Force the result to at least increase by a small value to avoid predictions of all-zeros.\n",
    "        if yhat[0] < 0.5:\n",
    "            yhat[0]=0.5\n",
    "        if state == 'South Dakota':\n",
    "            yhat[0] = 20\n",
    "\n",
    "        model_predictions.append(yhat)\n",
    "        true_test_value = yhat\n",
    "        # Feedback the result to history for the next prediction\n",
    "        history.append(true_test_value)\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Process the results\n",
    "    M = []\n",
    "    for m in model_predictions:\n",
    "        M.append(m.tolist()[0])\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Restore the values from differences\n",
    "    training.insert(0, training_data['Deaths'].values[0])   \n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(training)):\n",
    "        training[i] = training[i-1] + training[i]\n",
    "    if state in outliers1:\n",
    "        M[0] = training[-1] + M[0] * 1.8\n",
    "    elif state in outliers2:\n",
    "        M[0] = training[-1] + M[0]-10\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        M[0] = training[-1] + M[0]\n",
    "    for i in range(1, len(M)):\n",
    "        if state in outliers1:\n",
    "            M[i] = M[i-1] + M[i] * 1.8\n",
    "        elif state in outliers2:\n",
    "            M[i] = M[i-1] + M[i]\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            M[i] = M[i-1] + M[i]\n",
    "    print(f\"Done: {state}...{M}\")\n",
    "    \n",
    "    result_death[state] = M[-7:]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "### 3.4 Generate Submission Output File"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "tags": []
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "output_type": "stream",
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Day 0/7, Alabama\nDay 0/7, Alaska\nDay 0/7, Arizona\nDay 0/7, Arkansas\nDay 0/7, California\nDay 0/7, Colorado\nDay 0/7, Connecticut\nDay 0/7, Delaware\nDay 0/7, Florida\nDay 0/7, Georgia\nDay 0/7, Hawaii\nDay 0/7, Idaho\nDay 0/7, Illinois\nDay 0/7, Indiana\nDay 0/7, Iowa\nDay 0/7, Kansas\nDay 0/7, Kentucky\nDay 0/7, Louisiana\nDay 0/7, Maine\nDay 0/7, Maryland\nDay 0/7, Massachusetts\nDay 0/7, Michigan\nDay 0/7, Minnesota\nDay 0/7, Mississippi\nDay 0/7, Missouri\nDay 0/7, Montana\nDay 0/7, Nebraska\nDay 0/7, Nevada\nDay 0/7, New Hampshire\nDay 0/7, New Jersey\nDay 0/7, New Mexico\nDay 0/7, New York\nDay 0/7, North Carolina\nDay 0/7, North Dakota\nDay 0/7, Ohio\nDay 0/7, Oklahoma\nDay 0/7, Oregon\nDay 0/7, Pennsylvania\nDay 0/7, Rhode Island\nDay 0/7, South Carolina\nDay 0/7, South Dakota\nDay 0/7, Tennessee\nDay 0/7, Texas\nDay 0/7, Utah\nDay 0/7, Vermont\nDay 0/7, Virginia\nDay 0/7, Washington\nDay 0/7, West Virginia\nDay 0/7, Wisconsin\nDay 0/7, Wyoming\nDay 1/7, Alabama\nDay 1/7, Alaska\nDay 1/7, Arizona\nDay 1/7, Arkansas\nDay 1/7, California\nDay 1/7, Colorado\nDay 1/7, Connecticut\nDay 1/7, Delaware\nDay 1/7, Florida\nDay 1/7, Georgia\nDay 1/7, Hawaii\nDay 1/7, Idaho\nDay 1/7, Illinois\nDay 1/7, Indiana\nDay 1/7, Iowa\nDay 1/7, Kansas\nDay 1/7, Kentucky\nDay 1/7, Louisiana\nDay 1/7, Maine\nDay 1/7, Maryland\nDay 1/7, Massachusetts\nDay 1/7, Michigan\nDay 1/7, Minnesota\nDay 1/7, Mississippi\nDay 1/7, Missouri\nDay 1/7, Montana\nDay 1/7, Nebraska\nDay 1/7, Nevada\nDay 1/7, New Hampshire\nDay 1/7, New Jersey\nDay 1/7, New Mexico\nDay 1/7, New York\nDay 1/7, North Carolina\nDay 1/7, North Dakota\nDay 1/7, Ohio\nDay 1/7, Oklahoma\nDay 1/7, Oregon\nDay 1/7, Pennsylvania\nDay 1/7, Rhode Island\nDay 1/7, South Carolina\nDay 1/7, South Dakota\nDay 1/7, Tennessee\nDay 1/7, Texas\nDay 1/7, Utah\nDay 1/7, Vermont\nDay 1/7, Virginia\nDay 1/7, Washington\nDay 1/7, West Virginia\nDay 1/7, Wisconsin\nDay 1/7, Wyoming\nDay 2/7, Alabama\nDay 2/7, Alaska\nDay 2/7, Arizona\nDay 2/7, Arkansas\nDay 2/7, California\nDay 2/7, Colorado\nDay 2/7, Connecticut\nDay 2/7, Delaware\nDay 2/7, Florida\nDay 2/7, Georgia\nDay 2/7, Hawaii\nDay 2/7, Idaho\nDay 2/7, Illinois\nDay 2/7, Indiana\nDay 2/7, Iowa\nDay 2/7, Kansas\nDay 2/7, Kentucky\nDay 2/7, Louisiana\nDay 2/7, Maine\nDay 2/7, Maryland\nDay 2/7, Massachusetts\nDay 2/7, Michigan\nDay 2/7, Minnesota\nDay 2/7, Mississippi\nDay 2/7, Missouri\nDay 2/7, Montana\nDay 2/7, Nebraska\nDay 2/7, Nevada\nDay 2/7, New Hampshire\nDay 2/7, New Jersey\nDay 2/7, New Mexico\nDay 2/7, New York\nDay 2/7, North Carolina\nDay 2/7, North Dakota\nDay 2/7, Ohio\nDay 2/7, Oklahoma\nDay 2/7, Oregon\nDay 2/7, Pennsylvania\nDay 2/7, Rhode Island\nDay 2/7, South Carolina\nDay 2/7, South Dakota\nDay 2/7, Tennessee\nDay 2/7, Texas\nDay 2/7, Utah\nDay 2/7, Vermont\nDay 2/7, Virginia\nDay 2/7, Washington\nDay 2/7, West Virginia\nDay 2/7, Wisconsin\nDay 2/7, Wyoming\nDay 3/7, Alabama\nDay 3/7, Alaska\nDay 3/7, Arizona\nDay 3/7, Arkansas\nDay 3/7, California\nDay 3/7, Colorado\nDay 3/7, Connecticut\nDay 3/7, Delaware\nDay 3/7, Florida\nDay 3/7, Georgia\nDay 3/7, Hawaii\nDay 3/7, Idaho\nDay 3/7, Illinois\nDay 3/7, Indiana\nDay 3/7, Iowa\nDay 3/7, Kansas\nDay 3/7, Kentucky\nDay 3/7, Louisiana\nDay 3/7, Maine\nDay 3/7, Maryland\nDay 3/7, Massachusetts\nDay 3/7, Michigan\nDay 3/7, Minnesota\nDay 3/7, Mississippi\nDay 3/7, Missouri\nDay 3/7, Montana\nDay 3/7, Nebraska\nDay 3/7, Nevada\nDay 3/7, New Hampshire\nDay 3/7, New Jersey\nDay 3/7, New Mexico\nDay 3/7, New York\nDay 3/7, North Carolina\nDay 3/7, North Dakota\nDay 3/7, Ohio\nDay 3/7, Oklahoma\nDay 3/7, Oregon\nDay 3/7, Pennsylvania\nDay 3/7, Rhode Island\nDay 3/7, South Carolina\nDay 3/7, South Dakota\nDay 3/7, Tennessee\nDay 3/7, Texas\nDay 3/7, Utah\nDay 3/7, Vermont\nDay 3/7, Virginia\nDay 3/7, Washington\nDay 3/7, West Virginia\nDay 3/7, Wisconsin\nDay 3/7, Wyoming\nDay 4/7, Alabama\nDay 4/7, Alaska\nDay 4/7, Arizona\nDay 4/7, Arkansas\nDay 4/7, California\nDay 4/7, Colorado\nDay 4/7, Connecticut\nDay 4/7, Delaware\nDay 4/7, Florida\nDay 4/7, Georgia\nDay 4/7, Hawaii\nDay 4/7, Idaho\nDay 4/7, Illinois\nDay 4/7, Indiana\nDay 4/7, Iowa\nDay 4/7, Kansas\nDay 4/7, Kentucky\nDay 4/7, Louisiana\nDay 4/7, Maine\nDay 4/7, Maryland\nDay 4/7, Massachusetts\nDay 4/7, Michigan\nDay 4/7, Minnesota\nDay 4/7, Mississippi\nDay 4/7, Missouri\nDay 4/7, Montana\nDay 4/7, Nebraska\nDay 4/7, Nevada\nDay 4/7, New Hampshire\nDay 4/7, New Jersey\nDay 4/7, New Mexico\nDay 4/7, New York\nDay 4/7, North Carolina\nDay 4/7, North Dakota\nDay 4/7, Ohio\nDay 4/7, Oklahoma\nDay 4/7, Oregon\nDay 4/7, Pennsylvania\nDay 4/7, Rhode Island\nDay 4/7, South Carolina\nDay 4/7, South Dakota\nDay 4/7, Tennessee\nDay 4/7, Texas\nDay 4/7, Utah\nDay 4/7, Vermont\nDay 4/7, Virginia\nDay 4/7, Washington\nDay 4/7, West Virginia\nDay 4/7, Wisconsin\nDay 4/7, Wyoming\nDay 5/7, Alabama\nDay 5/7, Alaska\nDay 5/7, Arizona\nDay 5/7, Arkansas\nDay 5/7, California\nDay 5/7, Colorado\nDay 5/7, Connecticut\nDay 5/7, Delaware\nDay 5/7, Florida\nDay 5/7, Georgia\nDay 5/7, Hawaii\nDay 5/7, Idaho\nDay 5/7, Illinois\nDay 5/7, Indiana\nDay 5/7, Iowa\nDay 5/7, Kansas\nDay 5/7, Kentucky\nDay 5/7, Louisiana\nDay 5/7, Maine\nDay 5/7, Maryland\nDay 5/7, Massachusetts\nDay 5/7, Michigan\nDay 5/7, Minnesota\nDay 5/7, Mississippi\nDay 5/7, Missouri\nDay 5/7, Montana\nDay 5/7, Nebraska\nDay 5/7, Nevada\nDay 5/7, New Hampshire\nDay 5/7, New Jersey\nDay 5/7, New Mexico\nDay 5/7, New York\nDay 5/7, North Carolina\nDay 5/7, North Dakota\nDay 5/7, Ohio\nDay 5/7, Oklahoma\nDay 5/7, Oregon\nDay 5/7, Pennsylvania\nDay 5/7, Rhode Island\nDay 5/7, South Carolina\nDay 5/7, South Dakota\nDay 5/7, Tennessee\nDay 5/7, Texas\nDay 5/7, Utah\nDay 5/7, Vermont\nDay 5/7, Virginia\nDay 5/7, Washington\nDay 5/7, West Virginia\nDay 5/7, Wisconsin\nDay 5/7, Wyoming\nDay 6/7, Alabama\nDay 6/7, Alaska\nDay 6/7, Arizona\nDay 6/7, Arkansas\nDay 6/7, California\nDay 6/7, Colorado\nDay 6/7, Connecticut\nDay 6/7, Delaware\nDay 6/7, Florida\nDay 6/7, Georgia\nDay 6/7, Hawaii\nDay 6/7, Idaho\nDay 6/7, Illinois\nDay 6/7, Indiana\nDay 6/7, Iowa\nDay 6/7, Kansas\nDay 6/7, Kentucky\nDay 6/7, Louisiana\nDay 6/7, Maine\nDay 6/7, Maryland\nDay 6/7, Massachusetts\nDay 6/7, Michigan\nDay 6/7, Minnesota\nDay 6/7, Mississippi\nDay 6/7, Missouri\nDay 6/7, Montana\nDay 6/7, Nebraska\nDay 6/7, Nevada\nDay 6/7, New Hampshire\nDay 6/7, New Jersey\nDay 6/7, New Mexico\nDay 6/7, New York\nDay 6/7, North Carolina\nDay 6/7, North Dakota\nDay 6/7, Ohio\nDay 6/7, Oklahoma\nDay 6/7, Oregon\nDay 6/7, Pennsylvania\nDay 6/7, Rhode Island\nDay 6/7, South Carolina\nDay 6/7, South Dakota\nDay 6/7, Tennessee\nDay 6/7, Texas\nDay 6/7, Utah\nDay 6/7, Vermont\nDay 6/7, Virginia\nDay 6/7, Washington\nDay 6/7, West Virginia\nDay 6/7, Wisconsin\nDay 6/7, Wyoming\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "forecastID = [x for x in range(N_test*50)]\n",
    "deaths = []\n",
    "confirmed = []\n",
    "for i in range(7):\n",
    "    for s in states:\n",
    "        print(f\"Day {i}/{7}, {s}\")\n",
    "        confirmed.append(result_confirmed[s][i])\n",
    "        deaths.append(result_death[s][i])\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "round2_path = os.path.join(submissions_dir, 'Team4_Round2.csv')\n",
    "final = pd.DataFrame(list(zip(forecastID, confirmed, deaths)), \n",
    "               columns =['ForecastID', 'Confirmed', 'Deaths']) \n",
    "final.to_csv(round2_path, index=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "source": [
    "# End of Notebook"
   ],
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {}
  }
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