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Title

Content:

This repository contains its:

  • manuscript in pdf format
  • manuscript's figures
  • proposed model source codes that are written in Python3, NumPy and SciPy.
  • source codes (Python3 & Matplotlib) to plot the manuscript figures and tables.
  • empirical data on SG's Imported and Local COVID-19 epidemic trends from 23rd January to 18th August 2020 and COVID19 Confirmed Cases Info till 27th May 2020.

Dependencies

Execution of this respositry's source code requires your system to have Python3, NumPy, SciPy and Matplotlib installed.

Motivation

The outset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Singapore in 2020 is a monumental milestone. It revolutionised lifestyle and business practices; worldviews changed. To mitigate COVID-19 and help Singapore weather uncertainties, Singapore spent a portion of its national reserve and GDP. Personally, these events motivated me to understand how COVID-19 became an epidemic in Singapore.

Summary

One of my early realisations is that Singapore's health authorities rely on late-stage disease situational information to report Singapore's COVID-19 population. The national daily COVID-19 epidemic trends, although insightful, do not describe the viral/epidemic situation in "real-time". Instead, a national daily SARS-CoV-2 infection trend is needed. But, how can it be obtained?

Towards this end, I developed a model to "extract" lower-bound estimates of Singapore's daily SARS-CoV-2 infection trend from its daily COVID-19 epidemic trend and a few statistical parameters from the confirmation period of a sample of its COVID-19 cases. Its results show the model works.

Furthermore, my research found that:

  1. Singapore had an early window of opportunity to mitigate its COVID-19 epidemic with its Circuit Breaker, but it was unseized. An extended Circuit Breaker with tighter mitigation measures to quell Singapore's COVID-19 epidemic then needed implementation even having reduced its period to confirm COVID-19 cases.

  2. Many people with SARS-CoV-2 who ultimately had COVID-19 remained unidentified until a later point in time. I believe this factor is one of the reasons for the epidemic nature of COVID-19 in Singapore and its protracted recovery.

  3. The influx of Imported COVID-19 individuals in March 2020 caused Singapore's COVID-19 epidemic

Research Manuscript

It is available in both pdf and html formats.

I believe this model can help study your country/state/city/town's COVID-19 epidemic and even future epidemics. Also, I hope it can serve as a basis for you to advance even better models for viral infection analysis.