From d5642357be8f3f475fa41a7af0d9367704ce19b1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: baggiponte <57922983+baggiponte@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 6 Dec 2023 00:46:18 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] refactor: update introduction --- slides.md | 46 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++-------------------- 1 file changed, 26 insertions(+), 20 deletions(-) diff --git a/slides.md b/slides.md index 4343b2a..846ac7f 100644 --- a/slides.md +++ b/slides.md @@ -16,7 +16,6 @@ a **next-generation ML forecasting library** 👤 Luca Baggi 💼 ML Engineer @xtream 🛠️ Maintainer @functime -
@@ -32,7 +31,7 @@ a **next-generation ML forecasting library** ### 🔮 The problem with forecasting -### 🐻‍❄️ What is Polars? +### 📈 `functime`'s answer ### 🚀 Why is Polars so fast? @@ -52,41 +51,48 @@ a **next-generation ML forecasting library** # 🔮 The problem with forecasting A new paradigm to evaluate the forecasting process - - -*We spend far too many resources generating, reviewing, adjusting, and approving our forecasts, while almost **invariably failing to achieve the level of accuracy desired**. The evidence now shows that a large proportion of typical business forecasting efforts fail to improve the forecast, or even make it worse. So the conversation needs to change. The focus needs to change.* +*"We spend far too many resources generating, reviewing, adjusting, and approving our forecasts, while almost **invariably failing to achieve the level of accuracy desired**."* (source) -*We need to **shift our attention from esoteric model building to the forecasting process itself – its efficiency and its effectiveness**.* +
-

-Mike Gilliland -
+Mike Gilliland
Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters -

- - +
--- # 🔮 The problem with forecasting +A new paradigm to evaluate the forecasting process + +*"The focus needs to change. We need to shift our attention **from esoteric model building to the forecasting process itself** – its **efficiency** and its **effectiveness**."* (source) + +
+ +Mike Gilliland
+Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters +
+ + +--- + +# 📈 `functime`'s answer Reframe the problem -Make forecasting just work at a **reasonable scale** (~90% of use cases): +Make forecasting just work at a **reasonable scale** (~90% of use cases). + + 1. Forecast **thousands of time series** without distributed systems (PySpark). -2. Provide adequate **diagnostic tools**. -2. Smoothly translate form experimentation to production. +2. **Feature-engineering** and **diagnostics** API compatible with panel datasets. +3. Smoothly translate form experimentation to production. + -🫢 Spoiler alert: we used Polars and global forecasting - +This can be achieved with two ingredients: **Polars** and **global forecasting**. - ---