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Machine Learning and Statistics for Climate Science

karen mckinnon, andrew poppick - neurips 2021 tutorial

  • all systems are coupled (e.g. earth.nullschool.net)
  • areas for ml <> climate science
    • heterogenous things - understand climate locally
    • causal inference
    • pairing ml with physical models
    • improve climate data via infilling, uncertainty estimation, etc.
  • data
    • in situ measurements - direct, set up measurement (e.g. temperature) at location and record over time
      • land - global climate network temp. stations
      • ocean - harder to measure, best measured along shipping roats
        • argo program (~2005) - started recording using autonomous floats
    • satellite data - challenge: can't see through clouds, sometimes doesn't properly quantify what we want
      • ex. land-surface temperature
      • ex. SMAP satellite - soil moisture + ocean salinity
      • doesn't go far back (e.g. starts ~1979)
    • gridded data
      • noaa oisst v2 - satellite + in situe daily ocean
      • berkely earth surface tempretaures - interpolated in situ measurements, monthly
    • reanalyses - combination of many data sources
      • e.g. ECMWF - physical model for weather which assimilates data
    • proxy records / archives - ex. tree rings
      • long time scales
    • climate models / earth system models
      • ex. carbonbrief.org
      • divide earth into grid cells (can be too coarse)
        • interact using known equations
        • very computationally expensive
      • easy to do experiments
      • lots of noise, especially on small scales
    • challenges
      • inhomogeneities - observing platforms change over time