From d0ff70fe4b69d24876390478bc3d9e0374fb432d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: David J DeBonis Date: Sun, 9 Aug 2020 09:29:45 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] temp storage of narrative; closes #28 --- narrative.md | 45 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 45 insertions(+) create mode 100644 narrative.md diff --git a/narrative.md b/narrative.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0584a73 --- /dev/null +++ b/narrative.md @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +# Cafélytics +--- + +## Backstory + + +In 2012 Michael Pilosov traveled to a coffee cooperative in Guatemala as a volunteer. +For his volunteer project, he decided to apply his mathematical and coding abilities to analyze strategies for the co-op’s agricultural development. +He discovered the data that had been collected by co-op over the years was sparse, containing only very basic information about land ownership and species planted. + +Michael did what he could despite the lack of data--he developed a model that projected a general trend of future yields cooperative-wide, using information gathered from conversations. +Equipped with a model, he discovered that, despite a bright forecast for growth in the coming years, the co-op was not on track to sustain consistent harvests in the long-term. +The current operational state of the co-op (assuming no additional acquisitions of land) depicted large dips in harvest yields. + +These stemmed from the cyclic nature of the coffee tree itself. +Since they were planted at the same time, many trees would deteriorate and require replanting simultaneously. + +Consequently, the rapid growth of the cooperative would come back to plague them in the form of rapid decline. +This posed a serious threat on a medium-term timeline, potentially leading to a complete restructuring of existing arrangements for coffee beans. + +Michael engaged with the managers to discuss possible strategies to address year-over-year variation in the yields on the horizon. +It was necessary for the co-op to execute decisions that would level these production trends to ensure the long-term sustainability of the cooperative. + +The model could be used to simulate every idea that was proposed (e.g. land investment, tree intercropping, etc.); many scenarios could be played out in search of a feasible strategy to address the looming threats. + +Sustainability and longevity were the primary operating goals, so an ideal strategy would result in a relatively “flat” yield projection, with perhaps a gentle positive slope. +In order to stabilize the cooperative’s future yields, a solution had to be implemented that would mitigate harvest declines without requiring significant capital intervention. + +Small amounts of land would need to be purchased to supplement the co-op’s present yield trends. +Optimal purchase intervals were assessed, but some intervals of expansion exasperated the sustainability problems. + +Thus, an optimal purchase interval would need to be elected. +Simultaneously, it would be necessary for some portion of farmers (or plots) to prematurely upheave healthy trees in the peak of their fruiting maturity. + +Before their trees entered the final phase and began to produce lower yields, while still at full-capacity, they would need to be cut down and seedlings planted in their place. +According to the simulation, about one-third of existing candidate plots would have to be sacrificed for the greater good. +This action (in accordance with well-timed land purchases), would keep the cooperative’s yields in a range that allowed them to meet contracts consistently for decades to come. + + +--- + + +This code was originally written for Matlab but has since been edited to work with Octave. +The original scripts were used to build up a demonstration notebook (this document) to tell a brief version of the story behind the code and the findings from the study. +Help is available using the `%help` magic or using `?` with a command. \ No newline at end of file