Code for the analysis of our manuscript XXX

Code by Daniel Schlaepfer

Our simulation experiment was run with SOILWAT v0.1.0-gtd (available from our github repository as R package). We used a wrapper R script v0.1.0-gtd to organize simulation runs and output as SQLite databases. The relevant simulation output will be made available at Dryad XXX.

The analysis was carried out with several R scripts

• 2_GTD_GCM_Comparison_v1.R: Comparison of mean monthly soil moisture patterns between SOILWAT and GCMs
• 5_Database_Functions.R: Functions to navigate a SQL-database produced by the wrapper script (available from our wrapper R script repository)
• 5a1_GTD_Prj03v4_Helper.R: Collection of settings, functions, and (pre-extracted) data loading used by the other script files
• 5a2_GTD_Prj03v4_Extract_subsetPrj06.R: Extract results from SQL-database
• 5a3_GTD_Prj03v4_PreCalculations.R: Calculate shifts, masks, and attribution
• 5a4_GTD_Prj03v4_DataExportForSharing.R: Convert data objects (multidimensional arrays) into sharable spreadsheets
• 5a5_GTD_Prj03v4_CreatingRastersForSharing.R: Create raster files from shared spreadsheets
• 5b_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_StudyAreaExtent_v2.R: Tabulate and map gtd extents
• 5c_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsMain.R: Map median GTD extent/values
• 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R: Map median and range of GTD extent/values
• 5e_GTD_Prj03v2_Analysis_Scatterplots.R: Plot scatters between response variables
• 5f_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_TablesSummary.R: Format tables for manuscript
• 5g_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_VariationPartition.R: Partitioning of variation
• 5i_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_PairwiseCorrelations.R: Calculate pairwise correlation coefficients
• 5j_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_ChangeDensities.R: Plot change in response per region
• 5k_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_GeographicCorrelations.R: Tabulate and plot scatters and fits
• 5l_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_ArealPosNegResponses.R: Determine areas with pos/neg response
• 5m_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_BudykoFramework.R: Compare results against Budyko framework

Code that produced manuscript figures

• Figure 1 (Current and future distribution of temperate drylands under RCP8.5)

  • Script: 5b_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_StudyAreaExtent_v2.R
  • Options: map_inset_version == "v3"
  • Output: 6_Results/1_StudyArea/Maps/AgreementMap_RCP85_v3.pdf

• Figure 2 (Duration of continuous, growing season ecological drought)

  • Script: 5j_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_ChangeDensities.R
  • Options: fig_version == 7 && add_bars_extent == FALSE
  • Output: 6_Results/9_ChangePlots_v4/Fig_MeanDensities_resResponse2_RCP85_v7f.pdf

• Figure 3 (Climate-driven changes in the proportion of transpiration derived from deep soil moisture (> 20 cm depth))

  • Script: 5c_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsMain.R
  • Output: 6_Results/2_MainMaps_r3/resResponse2/MainMap_TranspirationBottomToTranspirationTotal_fraction_RCP85_rank8_AbsoluteChange.pdf

• Figure 4 (Relationship between current values of the proportion of transpiration derived from deep soil moisture (> 20 cm depth) and its response under RCP8.5 for 2070-2100)

  • Script: 5k_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_GeographicCorrelations.R
  • Output: 6_Results/10_CorrelationTables_Geographic_v3/Figures/Fig_CorrelationWithCurrent_RCP85_TranspirationBottomToTranspirationTotal_fraction_AbsoluteChange_by_TranspirationBottomToTranspirationTotal_fraction_v2.pdf

Code that produced supplementary figures

• Supplementary Figure 1 (Current and future distribution of temperate drylands under RCP4.5)

  • Script: 5b_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_StudyAreaExtent_v2.R
  • Options: map_inset_version == "v3"
  • Output: 6_Results/1_StudyArea/Maps/AgreementMap_RCP45_v3.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 2 (Current mean annual precipitation (MAP, mm yr-1) and relative changes under future conditions)

  • Script: 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R
  • Output: 6_Results/3_DetailedMaps/resClimate2/Map_MAP_mm_mean_RelativeChange.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 3 (Current mean annual temperature (MAT, C) and absolute changes under future conditions)

  • Script: 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R
  • Output: 6_Results/3_DetailedMaps/resClimate2/Map_MAT_C_mean_AbsoluteChange.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 4 (Current mean annual potential evapotranspiration (PET, mm yr-1) and relative changes under future conditions)

  • Script: 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R
  • Output: 6_Results/3_DetailedMaps/resClimate2/Map_PET_mm_mean_RelativeChange.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 5 (Current mean overlap of wet/warm-season (correlation between monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature) and absolute changes under future conditions)

  • Script: 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R
  • Output: 6_Results/3_DetailedMaps/resClimate2/Map_Seasonality_monthlyTandPPT_PearsonCor_mean_AbsoluteChange.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 6 (Current mean winter precipitation (mm) and absolute changes under future conditions)

  • Script: 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R
  • Output: 6_Results/3_DetailedMaps/resPPT2/Map_Precip_winter_mm_mean_AbsoluteChange/pdf

• Supplementary Figure 7 (Current proportion of transpiration derived from deep soil moisture (> 20 cm depth) and absolute change in the proportion under future conditions)

  • Script: 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R
  • Output: 6_Results/3_DetailedMaps/resTransp2/Map_TranspirationBottomToTranspirationTotal_fraction_mean_AbsoluteChange.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 8 (Current and future annual transpiration (mm) derived from shallow soil moisture (0–20 cm depth) and absolute response under future conditions)

  • Script: 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R
  • Output: 6_Results/3_DetailedMaps/resTransp2/Map_Transpiration_topLayers_mm_mean_AbsoluteChange.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 9 (Current and future annual transpiration (mm) derived from deep soil moisture (>20 cm depth) and absolute response under future conditions)

  • Script: 5d_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_MapsDetailed.R
  • Output: 6_Results/3_DetailedMaps/resTransp2/Map_Transpiration_bottomLayers_mm_mean_AbsoluteChange.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 10 (Comparison of mean monthly soil moisture patterns between SOILWAT and GCMs)

  • Script: 2_GTD_GCM_Comparison_v1.R
  • Options: version == "v1"
  • Output: 6_Results/1_Comparison_with_GCM_SoilMoisture/ComparisonGrids_mrso_meanmonthly_Duveillers_lambda_v1_trichrome.pdf

• Supplementary Figure 11 (SOILWAT output fitted to the Budyko curve of water availability)

  • Script: 5m_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_BudykoFramework.R
  • Options: add_clouds == TRUE && estimate_budyko == TRUE && add_sensitivity == FALSE
  • Output: 6_Results/12_Budyko_Framework/Fig_Budyko_RCP85_withDataCloud_withBudyko_v2.pdf

Code that produced supplementary tables

• Supplementary Table 1 (Distribution of global temperate drylands)

  • Script: 5b_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_StudyAreaExtent_v2.R
  • Output: 6_Results/1_StudyArea/Tables/Table_S3_Extent of global temperate drylands.csv

• Supplementary Table 2 (Areal change of global temperate drylands)

  • Script: 5b_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_StudyAreaExtent_v2.R
  • Output: 6_Results/1_StudyArea/Tables/Table_S4_Change of global temperate dryland area relative to current geographic extent_v2.csv

• Supplementary Table 3 (Factor attribution to shifts of temperate dryland distribution)

  • Script: 5b_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_StudyAreaExtent_v2.R
  • Output: 6_Results/1_StudyArea/Tables/Table_S5_Relative attribution to geographic shifts_v2.csv

• Supplementary Table 4 (Simulation responses: median values of response variables under current and future climate conditions for the end of the 21st century and scenario RCP8.5 for shifting zones of each region)

  • Script: 5f_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_TablesSummary.R
  • Output: 6_Results/5_Tables_v4/resResponse2/Table_resResponse2_Mean_shifts.csv
  • Output: 6_Results/5_Tables_v4/resTransp2/Table_resTransp2_Mean_shifts.csv

• Supplementary Table 5 (Simulation responses: median values of response variables under current and future climate conditions for the end of the 21st century and scenario RCP4.5 for shifting zones of each region)

  • Script: 5f_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_TablesSummary.R
  • Output: 6_Results/5_Tables_v4/resResponse2/Table_resResponse2_Mean_shifts.csv
  • Output: 6_Results/5_Tables_v4/resTransp2/Table_resTransp2_Mean_shifts.csv

• Supplementary Table 6 (Median values of climate drivers under current and future climate conditions for the end of the 21st century and scenario RCP8.5 for shifting zones of each region)

  • Script: 5f_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_TablesSummary.R
  • Output: 6_Results/5_Tables_v4/resClimate2/Table_resClimate2_Mean_shifts.csv
  • Output: 6_Results/5_Tables_v4/resPPT2/Table_resPPT2_Mean_shifts.csv

• Supplementary Table 7 (Median values of climate drivers under current and future climate conditions for the end of the 21st century and scenario RCP4.5 for shifting zones of each region)

  • Script: 5f_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_TablesSummary.R
  • Output: 6_Results/5_Tables_v4/resClimate2/Table_resClimate2_Mean_shifts.csv
  • Output: 6_Results/5_Tables_v4/resPPT2/Table_resPPT2_Mean_shifts.csv

• Supplementary Table 8 (GCM used with our simulations)

  • No script

• Supplementary Table 9 (Variation partitioning)

  • Script: 5g_GTD_Prj03v4_Analysis_VariationPartition.R
  • Options: do_attempt[[7]] == TRUE && do_compare_methods == FALSE
  • Output: 6_Results/6_VariationPartitioning/Tables_Aggregated/Table_VariationPartitioning_Means_Climate_Mean.csv
  • Output: 6_Results/6_VariationPartitioning/Tables_Aggregated/Table_VariationPartitioning_Means_Climate_AbsoluteChange.csv
  • Output: 6_Results/6_VariationPartitioning/Tables_Aggregated/Table_VariationPartitioning_Means_Response_Mean.csv
  • Output: 6_Results/6_VariationPartitioning/Tables_Aggregated/Table_VariationPartitioning_Means_Response_AbsoluteChange.csv

• Supplementary Table 10 (Comparison of mean monthly soil moisture patterns between SOILWAT and GCMs)

  • Script: 2_GTD_GCM_Comparison_v1.R
  • Options: version == "v1"
  • Output: 6_Results/1_Comparison_with_GCM_SoilMoisture/ComparisonTable_mrso_meanmonthly_v1.csv