talk.tex

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% for overview.tikz figure
\newlength\yearposx


%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\title{Statistical Eco(-toxico)logy}
\subtitle{Improving the Utilisation of Data for\\Environmental Risk Assessment}
\date{25\textsuperscript{th} January 2017}
\author{Eduard Sz\"{o}cs}



%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\begin{document}

%%% ------------------------------
\maketitle

\begin{frame}{Table of contents}
  \setbeamertemplate{section in toc}[sections numbered]
  \tableofcontents[hideallsubsections]
\end{frame}


%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{WWF (2016), Living Planet Report; Vörösmarty (2010). Nature.
}
\begin{frame}[t]
\frametitle{Freshwater biodiversity is strongly declining}
	\begin{columns}[T]
	\column{.63\textwidth}
		\onslide<1->{
			% \resizebox{1.1\textwidth}{!}{%
			% 			\hspace{-5mm}\input{figs/tikz/lpi.tikz}
			% 			}

			% \hspace{-7mm}\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={1.1\textwidth}{\textheight}}
			% 	\input{figs/tikz/lpi.tikz}
			% \end{adjustbox}
			\hspace{-7mm}\includegraphics[width=1.1\textwidth]{figs/lpi_2016.pdf}
		}
	\column{.37\textwidth}
		\onslide<2->{
			\vspace{3em} 
			\alert{\underline{Reasons}} \\
			\begin{itemize}
				\item Habitat loss
				\item Overexploitation
				\only<-2>{\item Pollution}
				\only<3->{\item<ale@3-> \alert{Pollution}}
				\item Invasive species
			\end{itemize}
		}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}
}




%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\section[Environmental Risk Assessment and Environmental Monitoring
]{Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) and Monitoring}

\begingroup
\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Environmental Risk Assessment and Monitoring}
    \vspace*{5mm}
	\resizebox{1.1\textwidth}{!}{
		\hspace*{-20mm}\input{figs/tikz/overview.tikz}
	}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}[noframenumbering]
\frametitle{Improving Statistics in ERA}
    \vspace*{5mm}
	\resizebox{1.1\textwidth}{!}{
		\hspace*{-20mm}\input{figs/tikz/overview_chp1.tikz}
	}
\end{frame}
\endgroup


%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\section{Improving Statistics in ERA}

{%
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{Source: www.umweltbundesamt.de (modified)
}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Experiments in Effect Assessment}
	\begin{columns}[T]
	\column<1->{.49\textwidth}
		\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/daphnia1.png}
	\column<2->{.49\textwidth}
		\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{figs/mesocosm_ld.jpg}
	\end{columns}

	\vfill
	\begin{columns}[T]
	\column<1->{.49\textwidth}
		\begin{itemize}
			\item Daphnia Test
			% \item Lower Tier 
			\item \emph{"x out of n survived"}
			% \item $EC_{50}$ / NOEC
		\end{itemize}

	\column<2->{.49\textwidth}
		\begin{itemize}
			\item Mesocosm
			% \item Higher Tier 
			\item \emph{"number of animals"}
			% \item NOEC
		\end{itemize}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}
}%



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Ecotoxicology is not normal}
\vspace*{-7mm}
	\begin{columns}[T]
	\column{.49\textwidth}
		\center
		\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={0.7\textwidth}{\textheight}}
					\input{figs/tikz/pb_fin.tikz}
		\end{adjustbox}
		\begin{itemize}
			\item \emph{"x out of n survived"}
			% \onslide<3->{\item<ale@3-> \alert{binomial data}}
		\end{itemize}
	\column{.49\textwidth}
		\center
		\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={0.7\textwidth}{\textheight}}
					\input{figs/tikz/pp_fin.tikz}
		\end{adjustbox}
		\begin{itemize}
			\item \emph{"number of animals"}
			% \onslide<3->{\item<ale@3-> \alert{count data}}
		\end{itemize}
	\end{columns}

	\onslide<2->{
		\Put(90,45){\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={0.9\textwidth}{0.4\textheight}}
			\input{figs/tikz/pn_fin.tikz}
		\end{adjustbox}
		}
	}
	\vspace*{0.5cm}
	\begin{itemize}
		\item<3-> ignore?
		\item<4-> transform?
		\item<5-> non-parametric?
		\only<6>{\item Generalised Linear Model (GLM)?}
		\onslide<7->{\item<ale@2-> \alert{Generalised Linear Model (GLM)?}}
	\end{itemize}

\end{frame}



% \begin{frame}
% \frametitle{A recent history (uncomprehensive) of GLM in ecology}
% 	\input{figs/tikz/glm_timeline.tikz}
% \end{frame}


\begin{frame}[t]
\frametitle{GLMs may have better properties}
\begin{tabular}{llll}
\textbf{Model} & \textbf{Observations} & \textbf{Predictors} & \textbf{Link} \\ \hline
LM & Y \textasciitilde~N(μ, R) & η =Xβ & η = μ \\ \pause
\alert{GLM} & Y \textasciitilde~\alert{G}(μ, R) & η =Xβ & η = \alert{g(}μ\alert{)} \\ 
% LMM & Y|b \textasciitilde~N(μ, R) & η =Xβ + Zb , b \textasciitilde~N(0, G) & η = μ \\ 
% GLMM & Y|b \textasciitilde~G(μ, R) & η =Xβ + Zb , b \textasciitilde~N(0, G) & η = g(μ) \\ 
\end{tabular}
\vspace*{0.5em}
\pause
\setlength{\fboxsep}{1pt}
\fcolorbox{myalert}{myalert}{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/tikz/glm_hist/ohara_2010.png}} \\[0.5em]
\fcolorbox{myalert}{myalert}{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/tikz/glm_hist/warton_2011.png}}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{GLMs in Ecotoxicology?}
	\setlength{\fboxsep}{1pt}
	\only<1-2>{
		\fcolorbox{gray}{gray}{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/oecd_2006.png}}\\
	}
	\only<2>{
		\Put(25, 290){\alert{\Huge\textbf{"GLMs are not discussed}}}
		}
	\only<2>{
		\Put(30, 240){\alert{\Huge\textbf{in this document."}}}
		}
	\onslide<4>{
		\alert{\Huge\textbf{No reference to GLM.}}
		}
	\onslide<3-4>{
		\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{figs/quant_ecotox.jpg}\\
	}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}[t]
\frametitle{Method: Simulations}

	\only<1>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/power/power_methods_1.pdf}}
	\only<2>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/power/power_methods_2.pdf}}
	\only<3-4>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/power/power_methods_3.pdf}}
	\only<5>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/power/power_methods_4.pdf}}
	\only<6>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/power/power_methods_5.pdf}}
	\only<7>{\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/power/power_methods_all.pdf}}

	\setlength{\fboxsep}{1pt}
	\only<4-5>{\Put(-30, 200){
		\fcolorbox{myalert}{myalert}{\includegraphics[width=0.55\textwidth]{figs/p_sim_fin.pdf}}
	}}
	\only<6->{\Put(-30, 166.5){
		\fcolorbox{myalert}{myalert}{\includegraphics[width=0.55\textwidth]{figs/p_sim_fin.pdf}}
	}}
\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Type I Errors: GLMs can fail}
	\begin{center}
		\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/p_t1_xkcd.pdf}
	\end{center}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Power: But GLMs can do also better}
	\begin{center}
		\includegraphics[width = \textwidth]{figs/p_pow_xkcd.pdf}
	\end{center}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{What we learned from this study}
	\metroset{block=fill}
		\begin{enumerate}
			\item Negative-binomial GLM show increased \alert{Type I errors}
			\item Can be fixed via \alert{bootstrap}
			\item Ecotoxicological experiments commonly \alert{low power} 
			\item \alert{GLMs} can increase this  power
		\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Where are we today?}
	\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/tikz/glm_hist/warton_2016.png}
	\pause
	\vspace*{-5mm}
	\metroset{block=fill}
	\begin{exampleblock}{State of the art}
		\begin{enumerate}
			\item Choose your model based on data properties
			\item Fix Type I errors by resampling
			\item GLMs have greater power 
		\end{enumerate}
	\end{exampleblock}
\end{frame}




\begingroup
\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Identifying Risks using Monitoring Data}
    \vspace*{5mm}
	\resizebox{1.1\textwidth}{!}{
		\hspace*{-20mm}\input{figs/tikz/overview_chp2.tikz}
	}
\end{frame}
\endgroup



%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\section{Identifying Risks using Monitoring Data}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Goals \& Hypotheses}
	\metroset{block=fill}
	\begin{exampleblock}{Goal: Combine monitoring and ERA}
		\begin{itemize}
			\item Compile nation-wide monitoring data % (federalism)
			\item Focus on pesticides
			\item Focus on small streams
			\item Identify risks \& influencing factors
		\end{itemize}
	\end{exampleblock}
	\pause
	\begin{exampleblock}{Hypotheses}
		\begin{enumerate}
			% \item Agricultural streams show highest concentrations
			% \item Small streams with highest concentrations
			% \item Precipitation increases concentrations
			% \item Highest concentrations in summer
			% % \item Mainly insecticides responsible for risks
			\item Agriculture:~~~~~\textbf{\Large\textuparrow}~~~~~Concentration: \textbf{\Large\textuparrow}
			\pause
			\item Stream size:~~~~\textbf{\Large\textdownarrow}~~~~~Concentration: \textbf{\Large\textuparrow}
			\pause
			\item Precipitation:~~\textbf{\Large\textuparrow}~~~~~Concentration: \textbf{\Large\textuparrow}
			\pause
			\item Annual dynamics~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Summer: \textbf{\Large\textuparrow}
		\end{enumerate}
	\end{exampleblock}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Analysing chemical concentrations}
	\begin{itemize}
		\pause
		\item Concentrations \textless~LOQ (96\% of all measurements)
		\pause
		\item Hurdle-model: 
			\begin{align*}
			y \sim ZAGA = 
			  \begin{cases}
			    Binomial~GLM   & \quad  \text{if } y < LOQ \\
			    Gamma~GLM & \quad \text{if } y \ge LOQ \\
			  \end{cases}
			\end{align*}
		\pause
		\item Risk Quotient
			\begin{itemize}
				\item \large $RQ = \frac{c}{RAC}$
			\end{itemize}
			\vspace*{1em}
		\pause
		\item Predictors
		    \begin{itemize}
				\item Catchment size 
				\item Agricultural land use
				\item Precipitation
			\end{itemize}
	\end{itemize}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Compiled data: Big, but inhomogeneous}
	\begin{columns}
	    \column{.45\textwidth}
	    	\begin{itemize}
	    		\item \textasciitilde~1.8M measurements 
	    		\item \textasciitilde~25,000 samples 
	    		\item \textasciitilde~2,300 sites
	    		\item \textasciitilde~500 pesticides 
	    	\end{itemize}
	    \column{.55\textwidth}
	    	\vspace*{5mm}
	    	\hspace*{-10mm}\includegraphics[width = 1.4\textwidth]{figs/map_phch.pdf}
	 \end{columns}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Monitoring: Small streams are underrepresented}
	\includegraphics[width = 0.85\textwidth]{figs/distribution.pdf}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Landscape: Factors influencing risk}
	\includegraphics[width = 1\textwidth]{figs/agri_size_eff.pdf}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Sampling: Factors influencing risk}
	\begin{columns}
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
			\resizebox{1.2\textwidth}{!}{%
				\begingroup
				\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
					\hspace*{-10mm}\input{figs/tikz/p_season.tikz}
				\endgroup
				}

	    \column{.51\textwidth}
	    	\begin{itemize}
	    		\item Peak in summer
	    		\item Increase by \alert{precipitation}
	    		\item absolute concentrations \textgreater\textgreater variability
	    	\end{itemize}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Risks: Compounds exceeding risk thresholds}
    \begin{itemize}
		\item 25\% of sites with at least one RQ > 1
	\end{itemize}
	\includegraphics[width = 1\textwidth]{figs/compounds.pdf}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{What we learned from this study}
	\begin{enumerate}
		\item Differences between \alert{states}
		\item Small streams are \alert{underrepresented}
		\item \alert{Agricultural} sources
		\item \alert{LOQ} gives additional insights
			\begin{itemize}
				\item Annual \alert{dynamics}
				\item \alert{Precipitation} increases concentrations
			\end{itemize}
		\item Currently \alert{Neonicotinoids} pose a risk
	\end{enumerate}
\end{frame}



%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\section{Solutions for Data Handling}

\begingroup
\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
\begin{frame}[noframenumbering]
\frametitle{Solutions for Data Handling in ERA}
    \vspace*{0mm}
	\resizebox{1.02\textwidth}{!}{
		\hspace*{-20mm}\input{figs/tikz/overview_chp34.tikz}
	}
\end{frame}
\endgroup

% {\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{Ziemann, M., Eren, Y., El-Osta, A., 2016. Gene name errors are widespread in the scientific literature. Genome Biology 17. 
% }
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Biologists \& Chemists face the same problems}
	\small
	\centering
	\pause
	\textbf{\alert{\underline{Names}}}
	\begin{columns}[t]
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	\emph{Osmia rufa, Osmia bicornis, Osmia ruffa, Osmiaxuxx} 
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	Chlorpyrifos, Chlorpyriphos, Chlorphyrifos, Chlorpypixx
	\end{columns}
	\pause

	\centering
	\textbf{\alert{\underline{Hierarchies}}}
	\begin{columns}[t]
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	Hymenoptera/ Apoidea/ Megachilidae/ Osmia/ rufa 
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	organophospate, ester, insecticide
	\end{columns}
	\pause

	\centering
	\textbf{\alert{\underline{Traits / Properties}}}
	\begin{columns}[t]
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	Wing length, Mass, Season 
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	Mass, $K_{OW}$, $LC_{50}$
	\end{columns}
	\pause

	\centering
	\textbf{\alert{\underline{Identifiers}}}
	\begin{columns}[t]
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	NCBI, ITIS, EOL, ... 
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	2921-88-2, SMILES, InChI, ...
	\end{columns}
	% \vspace{0.5em}
	\pause

	\rule{\textwidth}{1pt}
	\textbf{\alert{\underline{Amount of data}}}

	\begin{columns}[t]
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	\centering
	\textasciitilde 3000 taxa
	\column{.45\textwidth}
	\centering
	\textasciitilde 500 pesticides
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}
% }




\begin{frame}{}
\frametitle{Instead of wasting time...}
... use \alert{\textbf{webchem}}! \\	
	\vspace*{-0.6cm}
	\hspace*{2cm}
		\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={1.1\textwidth}{0.9\textheight}}
		\begingroup
		\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
					\input{figs/tikz/webchem.tikz}
		\endgroup
		\end{adjustbox} \\
	\Put(-20, 375){
		\includegraphics[width=0.17\textwidth]{figs/Rlogo.png}
	}
\\
\only<2->{
	\begingroup
	\footnotesize
	\vspace*{-1.5cm}\emph{''\alert{\textbf{webchem}} ...likely saved hundreds of working hours''} \\[3mm]
	\endgroup
	\tiny Münch et al. (2016). DoOR 2.0 - Comprehensive Mapping of Drosophila melanogaster Odorant Responses. Scientific Reports 6, 21841
}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Instead of wasting time...}
	... use \alert{\textbf{taxize}}! \\
	\begin{center}
		\hspace*{1.5cm}\includegraphics[height=0.6\textheight]{figs/sources_taxize.png}
	\end{center}
	\Put(-20, 311){
		\includegraphics[width=0.17\textwidth]{figs/Rlogo.png}
	}
	\pause
	\Put(20,60){
		\fcolorbox{myalert}{myalert}{\includegraphics[width=0.7\textwidth]{figs/taxize_twitter.png}}
	}
\end{frame}



% \begin{frame}
% \frametitle{taxize \& webchem: Advances for you (researchers)}
% 	\begin{enumerate}
% 		\item save time % data cleaning takes 80% of resources
% 		\item less errors
% 		\item reproducibility
% 		\item joins
% 		\item aggregations
% 	\end{enumerate}
% \end{frame}


%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\section*{Recap}

\begingroup
\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Recap: What did I look at?}
    \vspace*{2mm}
	\resizebox{1.1\textwidth}{!}{
		\hspace*{-20mm}\input{figs/tikz/overview_recap.tikz}
	}
\end{frame}
\endgroup

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Recap: What we learned from my PhD Thesis}
	\metroset{block=fill}
	\begin{exampleblock}{\checkmark Improving Statistics in ERA}
		\begin{itemize}
			\item Change your model, not your data
			\item Take LOQ into account
		\end{itemize}
	\end{exampleblock}

\pause
	\begin{exampleblock}{\checkmark~Identifying Risks using Monitoring data}
		\begin{itemize}
			\item Risk drivers and dynamics
			\item Agricultural small streams neglected \& at risk
			\item Currently Neonicotinoids pose a risk
		\end{itemize}
	\end{exampleblock}

\pause
	\begin{exampleblock}{\checkmark Solutions for Data Handling}
		\begin{itemize}
			\item Handling big eco(toxico-)logical data not easy
			\item Now easier
		\end{itemize}
	\end{exampleblock}
\end{frame}



%%% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
%%% Final slide

\begin{frame}[standout]
	\frametitle{}

	\vspace{1em}
	\Huge{Statistical Ecotoxicology} \\[0.3em]
	\normalsize{Improving the Utilisation of Data for \\ Environmental Risk Assessment} \\[1em]

	\footnotesize
	Eduard Szöcs \\[3em]
\begin{flushleft}
	\faLaptop~~~\textbf{\href{http://edild.github.io}{edild.github.io }}\\[.5em]
	\faTwitter~~~\textbf{\href{http://twitter.com/EduardSzoecs}{@EduardSzoecs}} 	\\[0.5em]
	\faFilePowerpointO~~~\textbf{\href{https://github.com/edild/phd_defense}{github.com/edild/phd\_defense}}\\[0.5em]
	\faBook~~~\textbf{\href{https://github.com/edild/phd_thesis}{github.com/edild/phd\_thesis}}\\[3em]
\end{flushleft}

	\begin{center}\ccbysa\end{center} 
\end{frame}




\appendix

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Power en detail}
	\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={\textwidth}{\textheight}}
				\input{figs/tikz/ap_t1_g.tikz}
	\end{adjustbox}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{For LOEC it is even worse}
	\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={\textwidth}{\textheight}}
				\input{figs/tikz/ap_t1_loec.tikz}
	\end{adjustbox}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Effect of number of treatments}
	\includegraphics[width =0.9\textwidth]{figs/p_power_trt.pdf} 
	\\ \footnotesize Source code: \url{http://uni-ko-ld.de/gz}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Comparison with Ives...}
	\begin{columns}[T]
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
	    	\underline{Szöcs (2015)}
	    	\begin{itemize}
	        	\item factorial design
	        	\item one predictor
	        	\item low replicated
	        	\item LM, GLM, bootstrap
	        	\item High T1 error of NB
	        	\item Quasi-Poisson worked well \vspace{1.2em}
	        	\item Bootstrap fixes the problems
	        \end{itemize}
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
	    	\underline{Ives (2015)}
	        \begin{itemize}
	        	\item continuous design
	        	\item two predictors
	        	\item well replicated
	        	\item LM, GLM
	        	\item High T1 error of NB
	        	\item Quasi-Poisson has problems with multiple predictors
	        	\item
	        \end{itemize}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Simulations are worth their work, use them \emph{a priori}!}
\begingroup
\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
	Experimental design for dose-response experiments - a simulation \\
	\url{http://edild.github.io/lc50_bias_sim/}
		    	\includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth, keepaspectratio]{figs/sim_drm.png} \\
	\begin{description}
		\item[GLM-Explorer:]{\url{http://uni-ko-ld.de/g3}}
	\end{description}
\endgroup
\end{frame}


{
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{Arle et al. (2016). Monitoring of Surface Waters in Germany under the Water Framework Directive - A Review of Approaches, Methods and Results. Water 8, 217–239
}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Aims of Environmental Monitoring of the WFD}
	\begin{itemize}
			\item assess \alert{status}
			\item observe \alert{trends}
			\item determine \alert{effects}
			\item basis for \alert{planning}
			\item control \alert{effectiveness} of measures
			\item prevent \alert{dangers}
	\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
}



\begin{frame}
	\frametitle{Idiosyncrasies of chemical concentrations}
	\begin{columns}[T]
	\column{.4\textwidth}
		\footnotesize
		\vspace{1em}
		\begin{itemize}
		\item continuous distribution in $\mathbb{R}^{+}_0$
		\item censoring \\ (x \textless LOQ )
		\item non-linearity \\ (season, trends)
		\item dependency \\(spatial, temporal)
		\item missing data
		\end{itemize}
	\column{.6\textwidth}
		\colorbox{white}{\includegraphics<1->[width =\textwidth]{figs/glyph.pdf}}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
\frametitle{ZAGA what...?}
	\begin{description}
		% \item[shiny app: ]{\url{http://139.14.11.23:3838/teaching/zaga/}}
		\item[shiny app: ]{\url{http://uni-ko-ld.de/g4}}
	\end{description}
	\includegraphics[width=1.1\textwidth]{figs/zaga_mods.pdf}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
	\frametitle{Model Performance}
	\begin{columns}[T]
	\column{.45\textwidth}
		\includegraphics[width =1.1\textwidth]{figs/logliks.pdf}
	\column{.55\textwidth}
		\includegraphics[width =1.1\textwidth]{figs/pftdvsobs.pdf}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Stream size - width relationship}
	  \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/width_size.pdf}
\end{frame}


{
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{Biggs et al. (2016). The importance of small waterbodies for biodiversity and ecosystem services: implications for policy makers. Hydrobiologia. DOI: 10.1007/s10750-016-3007-0. 
}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Small streams in the landscape}
	\hspace*{-10mm}\includegraphics[width=1.1\textwidth]{figs/streams_distr.pdf}
	\vspace*{-10mm}
	\begingroup
	\footnotesize
	\begin{itemize}
		\item Biodiversity
		\item Refuge for re-colonisation
	\end{itemize}
	\endgroup
\end{frame}
}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Precipitation in Germany and the samples}
	\begin{columns}
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
	    	\includegraphics[width=1.1\textwidth, keepaspectratio]{figs/precip_map.pdf}
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
	    	    	\includegraphics[width=1.1\textwidth, keepaspectratio]{figs/precip_comp.pdf}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}[shrink]
\frametitle{Comparison with other studies}
	\begin{columns}[T]
	    \column{.33\textwidth}
	    \underline{Szöcs (2016)}
	    \begin{itemize}
        	\item Germany \\[1.5em]
        	\item Monitoring
        	\item Grab sampling \vspace{1.2em}
        	\item Pesticides
        	\item Neonics + Chlorpyrifos
        	\item ZAGA (\textless LOQ)
        	\item CS: no
        \end{itemize}
	    \column{.33\textwidth}
	    \underline{Stehle (2015)}
	    \begin{itemize}
        	\item Europe / Global
        	\item Publications
        	\item Grab \& Event driven sampling
        	\item Insecticides
        	\item Organophos.+ Pyrethroids
        	\item LM for \textgreater LOQ
        	\item CS: weak (-0.26 per log CS)
        \end{itemize}
	    \column{.33\textwidth}
	    \underline{Knauer (2016)}
	    \begin{itemize}
        	\item Switzerland \\[1.5em]
        	\item Monitoring
        	\item Grab sampling \vspace{1.2em}
        	\item Pesticides
        	\item Chlorpyrifos + Herb + Fung 
        	\item no model
        	\item CS: (yes)
        \end{itemize}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{RACs by Type}
	\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={\textwidth}{0.95\textheight}}
				\input{figs/tikz/ap_rac.tikz}
	\end{adjustbox}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{RACs by Compound}
\begingroup
\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
	\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={\textwidth}{0.95\textheight}}
				\input{figs/tikz/ap_rac2.tikz}
	\end{adjustbox}
\endgroup
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Analysed compound spectra by state}
	    	\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figs/spectra.pdf}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Mixtures are common, but one compound dominates the risk}
	\begin{columns}
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
	    	\vspace{0.5cm}
	    	\includegraphics[width=1.2\textwidth, keepaspectratio]{figs/tusum_tumax.pdf}
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
	        \begin{itemize}
	        	\item up to 50 compounds in one sample
	        	\item high correlation
	        	\item $\sim$ 0.5 TU increase 
	        	\item mainly one compound responsible for risk
	        \end{itemize}
	\end{columns}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implications for National Monitoring}
	\begin{itemize}
    	\item Harmonize between states
	    	\begin{itemize}
		    	\item No. and distribution of sites
		    	\item Spectrum and quality of chemical analysis
		    	\item National Repository for data (see U.S. WQP)
		    \end{itemize}
	    \item Include small water bodies
		    \begin{itemize}
		    	\item streams
		    	\item standing waters
		    \end{itemize}
		\item sampling scheme
			\begin{itemize}
		    	\item event driven sampling
		    	\item automated / passive samplers
		    \end{itemize}
		\item reference sites
			\begin{itemize}
		    	\item no agriculture in catchment
		    \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}





\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implications for Ecological Risk Assessment}
	\begin{itemize}
    	\item Update statistical procedures
    	\item Reproducible and open assessments
    	\item Ban NOEC
    	\item Improve experimental designs
    	\item Revise conclusions on neonicotinoids
    	\item Improvements of the authorisation procedure
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}


{%
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{\scriptsize Modified from: Stehle, Schulz (2015). Agricultural insecticides threaten surface waters at the global scale. PNAS 112, 5750–5755.
}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Effects of RAC exceedances}
			\begin{itemize}
				\item RACs should never be exceeded (=protection goal)
				\item If so, biological effects are likely:
			\end{itemize}
	    	    	\includegraphics[height=0.7\textheight]{figs/stehle_pnas_2015_mod.png}
\end{frame}
}



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Reasons for observed RAC exceedances}
	\begin{itemize}
		\item Risk Mitigation fails
			\begin{itemize}
				\item Risk mitigation measures (erosion rills, wind)
				\item Farmer do not adhere (GAP, no spray zones)
			\end{itemize}
		\item Risk Assessment fails
			\begin{itemize}
				\item Exposure Assessment
					\begin{itemize}
						\item Models not working (Knäbel et al.)
					\end{itemize}
				\item Effect Assessment
					\begin{itemize}
						\item Missed sensitive species
						\item New document asks also for insects
					\end{itemize}
			\end{itemize}

	\end{itemize}
\end{frame}



{
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{Morrissey et al. (2015). Neonicotinoid contamination of global surface waters and associated risk to aquatic invertebrates: A review. Environment International 74, 291–303.
}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Toxicity of Neonicotinoid insecticides}
	\includegraphics[width = 0.85\textwidth]{figs/morrissey.png}
	\begin{itemize}
			\item \footnotesize EFSA conclusion Imidacloprid 2008:
			\begin{itemize}
				\item \footnotesize Mesocosm NOEC: $0.6~\mu g/L$ (Chiro + Baetidae), AF = 2
				\item \footnotesize "It was not possible to draw a clear conclusion [...] since [Baetidae] were present in too low abundances to allow a reliable statistical  evaluation [...]"
			\end{itemize}
	\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
}



{%
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{\scriptsize Bereswill, Streloke, Schulz (2014). Risk mitigation measures for diffuse pesticide entry into aquatic ecosystems: Proposal of a guide to identify appropriate measures on a catchment scale: Guide to Identify Pesticide Risk Mitigation Measures. IEAM 10, 286–298. 
}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Risk Mitigation Measures}
	    	    	\includegraphics[height=0.8\textheight]{figs/bereswill_2014_fig1.png}
\end{frame}
}





\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Biotic field effects}
	\begin{columns}
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
	    	    	\includegraphics[width=1.1\textwidth, keepaspectratio]{figs/mzb_map.png}
	    \column{.49\textwidth}
	    \begingroup
		\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
	        \begin{itemize}
	        	\item biological data with good spatial coverage
	        	\item 60\% of spatial congruence 
	        	\item Large scale effects largely unknown.
	        	\item Some work left...
	        	\item Future....
	        \end{itemize}
	       \endgroup
	\end{columns}

\end{frame}


{%
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{\scriptsize Source code to retrieve data and reproduce results: \url{http://uni-ko-ld.de/g7}
	}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{A global perspective (I)}
\begingroup
\footnotesize % = 10pt in 12pt default
	\begin{adjustbox}{max totalsize={\textwidth}{0.90\textheight}}
				\input{figs/tikz/ap_pers.tikz}
	\end{adjustbox}
\endgroup
% show world bank data.
% agriculture will be intensified (=more needs for pesticides)
% pop growth can (and must be) reduced, by reducing child mortality (more vaccination, health care... = wealth)
% ERA gets more important. Pesticides are needed, but use them responsibly with low risks
% Risk mitigation important. Integrated pest management, improved agriculture (Wechsel, ....)
\end{frame}
}


{%
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{Source: \url{https://www.gapminder.org/tools}
	}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{A global perspective (II)}
	\includegraphics[width=1.1\textwidth, keepaspectratio]{figs/pop_mort.png}
	% Child mortality stands also for health and wealth.
	% Increase both and the population growth will likely decrease
	% Pesticides probably needed, as there are also losses due to pests
	% Use pesticides with low risk (ERA!), reduce risk by risk mitigation
	% but also optimize food usage and distribution
\end{frame}
}


{%
\setbeamertemplate{frame footer}{Poisot, T., 2015. Best publishing practices to improve user confidence in scientific software. Ideas in Ecology and Evolution 8. 
	}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Software availability}
	Stable versions on CRAN, dev versions on github.
	\begin{description}
		\item[webchem]{\url{github.com/ropensci/webchem}}
		\item[taxize]{\url{github.com/ropensci/taxize}}
	\end{description}
	\vspace{1em}

Best practices for Software:
	\begin{itemize}
		\item open source (permissive MIT License)
		\item version control (git)
		\item automated tests (Travis-CI)
		\item in source documentation (roxygen)
	\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Many Thanks To}
	\begin{itemize}
		\item My supervisor \alert{Prof. Dr. Ralf. B. Schäfer} (for support, openness, opportunities \& discussions)
		\item My \alert{colleagues \& collaborators} (too many to list here)
		\item \alert{{G}erman Environment Agency} (for funding \& collab)
		\item My parents \alert{Anca \& Helmut} (for their support)
		\item My girlfriend \alert{Anja} (for everything)
	\end{itemize}
\end{frame}


% ------------------------------
\end{document}