Muxus.py

def binom(n, k):
	"""	
	Parameters:
		n - Number of elements of the entire set
		k - Number of elements in the subset
	It should hold that 0 <= k <= n
	Returns - The binomial coefficient n choose k that represents the number of ways of picking k unordered outcomes from n possibilities
	"""
	answer = 1
	for i in range(1, min(k, n - k) + 1):
		answer = answer * (n + 1 - i) / i
	return int(answer)

def multivariate_hypgeom(deck, needed):
	"""	
	Parameters:
		deck - A dictionary of cardname : number of copies
		needed - A dictionary of cardname : number of copies
	It should hold that the cardname keys of deck and needed are identical
	Returns - the multivariate hypergeometric probability of drawing exactly the cards in 'needed' from 'deck' when drawing without replacement 
	"""
	answer = 1
	sum_deck = 0
	sum_needed = 0
	for card in deck.keys():
		answer *= binom(deck[card], needed[card])
		sum_deck += deck[card]
		sum_needed += needed[card]
	return answer / binom(sum_deck, sum_needed)

with open("Output.csv","w") as writer:
	writer.write('Creatures,P[0 creatures],P[1 creature],P[2+ creatures],E[creatures],E[mana]')

	for ThreeManaGoblins in [9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15]:
		deck = {
			'OneDrop': 4,
			'TwoDrop': 8,
			'ThreeDrop': ThreeManaGoblins,
			'Krenko': 4,
			'FourDrop': 1,
		}
		deck['Other'] = 59 - deck['OneDrop'] - deck['TwoDrop'] - deck['ThreeDrop'] - deck['FourDrop'] - deck['Krenko']

		ProbabilityToHitExactlyZeroCreatures = 0
		ProbabilityToHitExactlyOneCreature = 0
		ProbabilityToHitAtLeastTwoCreatures = 0
		ExpectedCreatures = 0
		ExpectedMana = 0

		for OneDrop in range(min(deck['OneDrop'] +1, 7)):
			for TwoDrop in range(min(deck['TwoDrop'] +1, 7)):
				for ThreeDrop in range(min(deck['ThreeDrop'] +1, 7)):
					for FourDrop in range(min(deck['FourDrop'] +1, 7)):
						for Krenko in range(min(deck['Krenko'] +1, 7)):
							for Other in range(min(deck['Other'] +1, 7)):
								if OneDrop + TwoDrop + ThreeDrop + FourDrop + Krenko + Other == 6:
									needed = {
										'OneDrop': OneDrop,
										'TwoDrop': TwoDrop,
										'ThreeDrop': ThreeDrop,
										'FourDrop': FourDrop,
										'Krenko': Krenko,
										'Other': Other
									}
									Probability = multivariate_hypgeom(deck, needed)
									ActualKrenko = min(1, Krenko)
									Creatures = OneDrop + TwoDrop + ThreeDrop + FourDrop + ActualKrenko
									if (Creatures == 0):
										ProbabilityToHitExactlyZeroCreatures += Probability
									if (Creatures == 1):
										ProbabilityToHitExactlyOneCreature += Probability
									if (Creatures >= 2):
										ProbabilityToHitAtLeastTwoCreatures += Probability
									ExpectedMana += Probability * (1 * OneDrop + 2 * TwoDrop + 3 * ThreeDrop + 4 * FourDrop + 4 * ActualKrenko)
									ExpectedCreatures += Probability * Creatures
								
		Creatures = deck['OneDrop'] + deck['TwoDrop'] + deck['ThreeDrop'] + deck['FourDrop'] + deck['Krenko']
		print('\nFor this '+str(Creatures)+'-creature deck, ProbabilityToHitExactlyZeroCreatures = ' + str(round(100 * ProbabilityToHitExactlyZeroCreatures, 1))+"%")
		print('\nFor this '+str(Creatures)+'-creature deck, ProbabilityToHitExactlyOneCreature = ' + str(round(100 * ProbabilityToHitExactlyOneCreature, 1))+"%")
		print('\nFor this '+str(Creatures)+'-creature deck, ProbabilityToHitAtLeastTwoCreatures = ' + str(round(100 * ProbabilityToHitAtLeastTwoCreatures, 1))+"%")
		print('\nFor this '+str(Creatures)+'-creature deck, Expected Creatures = ' + str(round(ExpectedCreatures, 2)))
		print('\nFor this '+str(Creatures)+'-creature deck, ExpectedMana = ' + str(round(ExpectedMana, 2)))
		writer.write('\n'+str(Creatures)+','+str(round(100 * ProbabilityToHitExactlyZeroCreatures, 1))+"%,"+ str(round(100 * ProbabilityToHitExactlyOneCreature, 1))+"%,"+ str(round(100 * ProbabilityToHitAtLeastTwoCreatures, 1))+"%,"+ str(round(ExpectedCreatures, 2))+','+ str(round(ExpectedMana, 2)))
		
	#Determine probability to hit both a haste lord and Krenko	
	deck = {
		'ThreeDrop': 8,
		'Krenko': 4,
	}
	deck['Other'] = 59 - deck['ThreeDrop'] - deck['Krenko']

	ProbabilityToWin = 0

	for ThreeDrop in range(min(deck['ThreeDrop'] +1, 7)):
		for Krenko in range(min(deck['Krenko'] +1, 7)):
			for Other in range(min(deck['Other'] +1, 7)):
				if ThreeDrop + Krenko + Other == 6:
					needed = {
						'ThreeDrop': ThreeDrop,
						'Krenko': Krenko,
						'Other': Other
					}
					Probability = multivariate_hypgeom(deck, needed)
					if (ThreeDrop > 0 and Krenko > 0):
						ProbabilityToWin += Probability
							
	print('\n'+'-'*10)
	print('\nFinally, ProbabilityToWin = ' + str(round(100 * ProbabilityToWin, 1))+"%")