diff --git a/exp/internal/controllers/machinepool_controller_phases.go b/exp/internal/controllers/machinepool_controller_phases.go
index 1c7a9bb32cfb..a82eaf753640 100644
--- a/exp/internal/controllers/machinepool_controller_phases.go
+++ b/exp/internal/controllers/machinepool_controller_phases.go
@@ -68,12 +68,12 @@ func (r *MachinePoolReconciler) reconcilePhase(mp *expv1.MachinePool) {
 	}
 
 	// Set the phase to "running" if the number of ready replicas is equal to desired replicas.
-	if mp.Status.InfrastructureReady && *mp.Spec.Replicas == mp.Status.ReadyReplicas {
+	if mp.Status.InfrastructureReady && mp.Spec.Replicas != nil && *mp.Spec.Replicas == mp.Status.ReadyReplicas {
 		mp.Status.SetTypedPhase(expv1.MachinePoolPhaseRunning)
 	}
 
 	// Set the appropriate phase in response to the MachinePool replica count being greater than the observed infrastructure replicas.
-	if mp.Status.InfrastructureReady && *mp.Spec.Replicas > mp.Status.ReadyReplicas {
+	if mp.Status.InfrastructureReady && mp.Spec.Replicas != nil && *mp.Spec.Replicas > mp.Status.ReadyReplicas {
 		// If we are being managed by an external autoscaler and can't predict scaling direction, set to "Scaling".
 		if annotations.ReplicasManagedByExternalAutoscaler(mp) {
 			mp.Status.SetTypedPhase(expv1.MachinePoolPhaseScaling)
@@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ func (r *MachinePoolReconciler) reconcilePhase(mp *expv1.MachinePool) {
 	}
 
 	// Set the appropriate phase in response to the MachinePool replica count being less than the observed infrastructure replicas.
-	if mp.Status.InfrastructureReady && *mp.Spec.Replicas < mp.Status.ReadyReplicas {
+	if mp.Status.InfrastructureReady && mp.Spec.Replicas != nil && *mp.Spec.Replicas < mp.Status.ReadyReplicas {
 		// If we are being managed by an external autoscaler and can't predict scaling direction, set to "Scaling".
 		if annotations.ReplicasManagedByExternalAutoscaler(mp) {
 			mp.Status.SetTypedPhase(expv1.MachinePoolPhaseScaling)