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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html>
<head>
<title>Spatio-Temporal Forecasts for Bike Availability in Dockless Bike Sharing Systems</title>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="author" content="Supervised by Edzer Pebesma (WWU), Joel Silva (UNL) & Jorge Mateu (UJI)" />
<link href="libs/remark-css/default.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/remark-css/default-fonts.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/htmlwidgets/htmlwidgets.js"></script>
<script src="libs/jquery/jquery.min.js"></script>
<link href="libs/leaflet/leaflet.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/leaflet/leaflet.js"></script>
<link href="libs/leafletfix/leafletfix.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/Proj4Leaflet/proj4-compressed.js"></script>
<script src="libs/Proj4Leaflet/proj4leaflet.js"></script>
<link href="libs/rstudio_leaflet/rstudio_leaflet.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/leaflet-binding/leaflet.js"></script>
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<script src="libs/kePrint/kePrint.js"></script>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="utils.css" type="text/css" />
</head>
<body>
<textarea id="source">
class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide
# Spatio-Temporal Forecasts for Bike Availability in Dockless Bike Sharing Systems
## Lucas van der Meer
### Supervised by Edzer Pebesma (WWU), Joel Silva (UNL) & Jorge Mateu (UJI)
### Master Thesis Defence. February 4, 2019
---
background-image: url('images/bike.png')
background-size: cover
class: center, center, inverse
# Towards more sustainable cities
---
background-image: url('images/bike2.png')
background-size: cover
class: center, center, inverse
# With dockless bike sharing
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# What do we need?
.center[
.pull-left[
### Good bike infrastructure
<img src="images/infrastructure.png" width="70%" />
]
.pull-right[
### A reliable system
<img src="images/reliable.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# What does a reliable system mean?
.center[
.pull-left[
### Station based systems
<img src="images/station.png" width="70%" />
]
.pull-right[
### Dockless systems
<img src="images/dockless.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# How do forecasts help to make systems more reliable?
.center[
.pull-left[
### User perspective
<img src="images/users.png" width="70%" />
]
.pull-right[
### Operator perspective
<img src="images/operators.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
class: middle, center
# Aim:
# Create a generally applicable <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>methodology</span> to forecast bike availability in dockless bike sharing systems
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Challenges
.center[
.pull-left[
### Station based systems
<img src="images/station.png" width="70%" />
]
.pull-right[
### Dockless systems
<img src="images/dockless.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Challenges
.center[
.pull-left[
### Patterns over space
<img src="images/space.png" width="70%" />
]
.pull-right[
### Patterns over time
<img src="images/time.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 50% 35%
class: middle, center
# Methodology
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# What to forecast?
# For a given <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>location</span>, and a given <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>timestamp</span> in the future, forecast the expected <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>distance</span> to the nearest available bike
<img src="images/distancetobike.png" width="599" />
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Requirements
.center[
.col-one[
### Accurate
<img src="images/accurate.png" width="70%" />
]
.col-two[
### Automated
<img src="images/automated.png" width="70%" />
]
.col-three[
### Fast
<img src="images/fast.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Overall design
<img src="../figures/workflow.png" width="3251" />
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Case study: San Francisco
<div id="htmlwidget-605e01e6b3699b526de3" style="width:1008px;height:504px;" class="leaflet html-widget"></div>
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---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Train and test period
<img src="images/traintest.png" width="2700" />
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Cluster loop
<img src="../figures/workflow.png" width="3251" />
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# System area
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# Overlaying grid
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---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Spatially constrained hierarchical clustering
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background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Model points
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---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Model loop
<img src="../figures/workflow.png" width="3251" />
---
background-image: url('images/timeplots.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('images/stlplot_model2.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# The models
<table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Model structures</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Seasonality </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Stochastic model </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Bayview cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> None </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> ARIMA(3, 1, 1) </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Downtown cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Daily </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> ARIMA(2, 1, 1) </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Residential cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Daily </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> ARIMA(1, 1, 1) </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Presidio cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> None </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> ARIMA(1, 1, 3) </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Forecast loop
<img src="../figures/workflow.png" width="3251" />
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Simulating forecast requests
.center[
.col-one[
### More requests at locations where the usage is higher
<img src="images/space.png" width="70%" />
]
.col-two[
### More request at timestamps when the usage is higher
<img src="images/time.png" width="70%" />
]
.col-three[
### Location and timestamp are always a combination!
<img src="images/spacetime.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Test points
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---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Forecasting
.center[
.pull-left[
### Proposed method
<img src="images/timeseries.png" width="70%" />
]
.pull-right[
### Baseline method
<img src="images/baseline.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 50% 35%
class: middle, center
# Results
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Forecast evaluation
<table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Mean absolute errors of forecasts</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Proposed method </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Baseline method </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Overall </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 223 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 322 m </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Bayview cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 332 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 332 m </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Downtown cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 203 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 327 m </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Residential cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 240 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 321 m </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Presidio cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 253 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 253 m </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 50% 35%
class: middle, center
# Discussion
---
background-image: url('images/forecastplots.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# Limits of forecastability
.center[
<img src="../figures/jumpgo.png" width="70%" />
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
# What is missing?
.center[
.pull-left[
### Weather
<img src="images/weather.png" width="70%" />
]
.pull-right[
### Special events
<img src="images/specialevent.png" width="70%" />
]
]
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 50% 35%
class: middle, center
# Conclusion
---
background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
class: middle, center
# Created a generally applicable methodology to forecast bike availability in dockless bike sharing systems, that <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>outperforms the baseline</span>, but also shows the <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>limited forecastability</span> of dockless bike sharing data
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class: middle, center
<img src="images/hexagon.png" width="20%" />
#### All code available on github
#### https://github.com/luukvdmeer/dockless
Slides created with the R package `xaringan`
Plots created with the R package `ggplot2`
Maps created with the R package `leaflet`
Icons adapted from `iconfinder.com`
Images from `jump.com`
---
<table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Average forecast errors</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Proposed method </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Baseline method </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Model points </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Root Mean Squared Error </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 297 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 408 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 251 m </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Mean Absolute Error </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 223 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 322 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 199 m </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;
<table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>RMSE per cluster</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Proposed method </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Baseline method </th>
<th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Model points </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Bayview cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 389 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 389 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 236 m </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Downtown cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 275 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 414 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 244 m </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Residential cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 317 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 411 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 270 m </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Presidio cluster </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 320 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 320 m </td>
<td style="text-align:left;"> 142 m </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
---
background-image: url('../figures/hourlag.png')
background-size: contain
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background-image: url('../figures/clusterplots.png')
background-size: contain
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background-image: url('../figures/clusterloop.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('../figures/modelloop.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('../figures/forecastloop.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('../figures/pickups.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('../figures/residual_timeplots.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('../figures/residual_acfplots.png')
background-size: contain
---
background-image: url('../figures/residual_histograms.png')
background-size: contain
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