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bus_econ_hw.jl
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bus_econ_hw.jl
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### A Pluto.jl notebook ###
# v0.17.1
using Markdown
using InteractiveUtils
# ╔═╡ ba28b0cc-b900-4bbb-8d40-6f628779bcb9
using Random, Pluto, Distributions, DataFrames, StatsBase, FreqTables, VegaLite, StatsPlots, Plots, PrettyTables
# ╔═╡ e80226ba-8932-47a0-b5bc-fec9a2e3e482
md"10000 individuals, J+1 = 9 products, set parameters"
# ╔═╡ 11280580-0b32-4b1d-9c29-814004a608e6
begin
I = 10000
J = 8
β = 1
α = 1
end
# ╔═╡ 1a26ca12-8e66-47d0-8b53-e404a4f91762
df = DataFrame(
i = repeat(1:I, J+1),
j = repeat(0:J, I),
ϵ = rand(GeneralizedExtremeValue(0,1,0), 90000),
u = repeat(zeros(Float64,1), 90000),
chosen1 = repeat(zeros(Float64, 1), 90000)
)
# ╔═╡ f917ad47-f5e6-43a8-be02-a7fa2433d4f0
# Define necessary functions
begin
function price(j)
if j == 9
p = 10
else
p = 10 .- j/2
end
return p
end
function xi(j)
if j == 9
ξ = 8
else
ξ = j/5
end
return ξ
end
function value(j)
if j == 9
x = 3
else
x = 10 .- j/10
end
return x
end
function indicator(x,y)
if x .≥ y .≥ 0
dummy = 1
else
dummy = 0
end
return dummy
end
function cs(df, utility, market_share,α=1)
surplus = df.utility / df.α * df.market_share ./ 100
return surplus
end
function cond_utility(chosen, utility)
cond_u = sum(chosen .* utility) ./ sum(chosen)
return cond_u
end
end
# ╔═╡ ca6f68da-cd56-43b8-b1a7-7006053cecf8
# Transform DF by adding price, x, and ξ
begin
transform!(df, :j => price => :p)
transform!(df, :j => xi => :ξ)
transform!(df, :j => value => :x)
end
# ╔═╡ fdb1cecb-36e1-410e-9c0f-4c3211d384eb
# utility
begin
df.u = β .* df.x .- α .* df.p .+ df.ξ .+ df.ϵ
df
end
# ╔═╡ f0e318ee-e814-45cb-8bb7-93eb3a673b7e
# Group by individual calculate maximumⱼ(uᵢⱼ)
transform!(groupby(df, :i), :u => maximum => :u_maximum)
# ╔═╡ 90f106bc-4e36-4e9e-9aa2-43aff3737ddf
# make chosen = 1 if uᵢⱼ = maximumⱼ(uᵢⱼ)
df.chosen1 = df.u .== df.u_maximum .≥ 0
# ╔═╡ 154f213b-c3e2-4578-88b0-0c5a6ced2310
# How many consumers choose each good j?
freqtable(df, :chosen1, :j)
# ╔═╡ 4aa87e62-a845-42c0-92f9-4bbd69c1fda5
md"""
***
Now let's look at how things change when α ~ LogNormal(0.3, √0.1)
"""
# ╔═╡ 153ac234-3659-45b7-9ebc-a44d4a51be6b
# initialize dataframe
params = DataFrame(
i = repeat(1:I, J+1),
j = repeat(0:J, I),
α = repeat(rand(LogNormal(0.3, sqrt(0.10)), I), J+1),
new_u = repeat(zeros(Float64, 1), 90000)
)
# ╔═╡ ce64f43b-05a0-4818-bcb6-0b1c14127847
# Checking that α was correctly calculated; it should be the same for a given i
sort(params, order(:i))
# ╔═╡ e2fd7649-857b-4062-bbf9-977c1fe8a0b9
# form df for Q2 and rename chosen1 to chosen 2
q2_df = rename(select(leftjoin(df, params, on = [:i, :j]), Not([:u, :u_maximum])), :chosen1 => :chosen2)
# ╔═╡ d73b870a-7c83-46bd-a980-2b83fdfd4692
# Generate new_u
begin
q2_df.new_u = β .* q2_df.x .- q2_df.α .* q2_df.p .+ q2_df.ξ .+ q2_df.ϵ
q2_df
end
# ╔═╡ 51527d78-c1d7-4923-97ea-9bedbe147ee4
begin
# we see that α and new_u are of type Float64?; change them to Float64
q2_df[!, :α] = convert.(Float64, q2_df[:, :α])
q2_df[!, :new_u] = convert.(Float64, q2_df[:, :new_u])
end
# ╔═╡ 35aad317-8a50-4d8a-8d3c-b76e94bfce6d
# Group by individual, calculate maximumⱼ(uᵢⱼ)
transform!(groupby(q2_df, :i), :new_u => maximum => :new_u_maximum)
# ╔═╡ 4d92cfed-6d18-440a-b141-dc35baffa5c5
# create chosen2 for q2_df
q2_df.chosen2 = q2_df.new_u .≥ q2_df.new_u_maximum .≥ 0
# ╔═╡ 2867033b-4fa5-4a98-a4d0-f87e21c12fa7
md"Let's compare the product choices"
# ╔═╡ 53b5ed1d-4fd2-4589-802c-b137b20d9aba
begin
q1_choices = combine(groupby(filter(row -> row.chosen1 .== true, df), [:j]), nrow => :purchases)
pretty_table(q1_choices)
end
# ╔═╡ 621933bd-651e-44b7-99e5-bf1ac197261c
begin
q2_choices = combine(groupby(filter(row -> row.chosen2 .== true, q2_df), [:j]), nrow => :purchases)
pretty_table(q2_choices)
end
# ╔═╡ 7911e666-77a0-40ac-bb20-4a74b90e8905
# Calculate utility: = 0 if no purchase, otherwise equals the utility conditonal on purchasing
transform!(q2_df, [:chosen2, :new_u] => ((x,y) -> x .* y) => :new_u_given_purchase)
# ╔═╡ 939a1ce2-262b-48e5-be5f-b94867ff3d39
transform!(df, [:chosen1, :u] => ((x,y) -> x .* y) => :u_given_purchase)
# ╔═╡ e0ae73b2-edf5-4ef1-afad-e6711ebac405
# Filter so that only rows where chosen ==1
begin
df_purchased = filter(row -> row.chosen1 ==true, df)
q2_df_purchased = filter(row -> row.chosen2 ==true, q2_df)
end
# ╔═╡ eda75465-c037-4590-a03e-8166b23e6e3c
simulated_utility_lnormal = histogram(q2_df_purchased.new_u_given_purchase, label = "αᵢ ~ LogNormal(0.3, √(0.1)", xlabel = "Simulated Utility, Conditional on Purchasing", normalize = true)
# ╔═╡ 34264042-3536-45cb-a5cd-cce9df948590
simulated_utility_both = histogram!(df_purchased.u_given_purchase, label = "α = 1", normalize = true, fillalpha = 0.8)
# ╔═╡ c54a5928-04c9-4c72-afc5-b29250b59ff9
# Combine df and q2_df, group by j and find the total number of customers who purchase
begin
df_summary = combine(groupby(df_purchased, :j), :chosen1 => sum, :u_given_purchase => mean, :p => mean)
q2_df_summary = combine(groupby(q2_df_purchased, :j), :chosen2 => sum, :α => mean, :new_u_given_purchase => mean, :p => mean)
summary = leftjoin(df_summary, q2_df_summary, on = [:j, :p_mean])
end
# ╔═╡ 939f556f-c2ca-4caf-8da0-8948d265e270
# Calculate market shares (note the market is *not* covered with the LogNormal α)
begin
transform!(summary, :chosen1_sum => (x -> 100x / sum(x)) => :market_share1)
transform!(summary, :chosen2_sum => (x -> 100x / sum(x)) => :market_share2)
summary.cum_market_share1 = cumsum(summary.market_share1)
summary.cum_market_share2 = cumsum(summary.market_share2)
summary.cum_chosen1 = cumsum(summary.chosen1_sum)
summary.cum_chosen2 = cumsum(summary.chosen2_sum)
summary.market_share2 = round.(summary.market_share2, digits = 2)
summary.market_share1 = round.(summary.market_share1, digits = 2)
end
# ╔═╡ 4d6039df-91fe-40b4-9481-ace40a0e1e61
# check that market shares add to 100
sum(summary.market_share1)
# ╔═╡ 687bd8e4-45c5-4cd9-909a-22a18f12c918
sum(summary.market_share2) #checks out
# ╔═╡ 27480f11-e7c1-470b-8bb2-f0f30b406f2a
md"""
But some consumers under scenario 2 are not purchasing any good!
Let's see how many actually choose to purchase:
"""
# ╔═╡ 10fa4fcb-ce99-47cb-8cc9-164e39f30563
sum(summary.chosen2_sum)
# ╔═╡ d7c1ab26-1ba9-41b0-9a15-438bd5b6a568
begin
α_histogram = histogram(q2_df.α, xaxis = "α", label = "Simulated α", normalize = true)
# Fit α to a Log Normal Distribution
fitted_α = fit(LogNormal, q2_df.α)
distr_α = Distributions.params(fitted_α)
plot!(LogNormal(distr_α[1], distr_α[2]), label = "True Log Normal Density", normalize = true, fill = true, alpha = 0.5)
end
# ╔═╡ ae51fc4d-e866-4d17-b799-916b65d35b92
md"What happens if we assume that utility is normally distributed?"
# ╔═╡ 1f9eed48-c129-4761-bc0d-1228d2d357cf
begin
fitted_new_u_given_purchase = fit(Normal, q2_df_purchased.new_u_given_purchase)
distr_new_u_given_purchase = Distributions.params(fitted_new_u_given_purchase)
fitted_u_given_purchase = fit(Normal, df_purchased.u_given_purchase)
distr_u_given_purchase = Distributions.params(fitted_u_given_purchase)
utility_normal_plot = plot(Normal(distr_new_u_given_purchase[1], distr_new_u_given_purchase[2]), label = "U | α ~ LogNormal", fill = true, alpha = 0.5)
plot!(Normal(distr_u_given_purchase[1], distr_u_given_purchase[2]), label = "U | α = 1", fill = true, alpha = 0.5)
end
# ╔═╡ 04ac0744-57cf-46c7-81b4-b205d9fdd593
md"""
The estimated choice probabilities are the same as the aggregate market shares
Let's take a look:
"""
# ╔═╡ e4a3299c-9c2e-40fc-a116-a62e6856ff40
begin
market_share_ln_vs_1= plot(summary.j, summary.market_share2, label = "α ~ LogNormal", legend = :topleft)
plot!(summary.j, summary.market_share1, label = "α = 1")
ylabel!("Market Share")
xlabel!("j")
end
# ╔═╡ c01df32a-b39a-4989-bc16-91724ffa1cc9
begin
utility_vs_α = plot(summary.α_mean, summary.new_u_given_purchase_mean, seriestype = :scatter, ylims = (0, maximum(summary.new_u_given_purchase_mean) + 2), label = "utility | purchase")
xlabel!("α")
ylabel!("Utility | Purchase")
end
# ╔═╡ 625a3680-2ef1-4f63-b151-a949b5c00b74
md"""
***
Now let's look at question 3:
"""
# ╔═╡ 2ec78271-81b1-439d-abb8-b586c83a806f
# Question 3
q3_df = DataFrame(
i = repeat(1:I, 1),
j = repeat([9], I),
ϵ = rand(GeneralizedExtremeValue(0,1,0), 10000),
chosen = repeat([false], 10000),
α = unique(q2_df, α).α,
x = repeat([3.0], 10000),
ξ = repeat([8.0], 10000),
p = repeat([10.0], 10000),
new_u = repeat([0.0], 10000)
)
# ╔═╡ 807778f6-49c1-43ac-982a-06e1d67fc433
# Calculate utility
begin
q3_df.new_u = β .* q3_df.x .- q3_df.α .* q3_df.p .+ q3_df.ξ .+ q3_df.ϵ
q3_df
end
# ╔═╡ 40ce5598-c400-4815-a521-dfb10c45acc8
names(q3_df)
# ╔═╡ bbf5635e-f283-4f73-b72d-fe11f452a9ec
names(q2_df)
# ╔═╡ 5d40fc26-aa5f-4aeb-b681-2c13f0cb2a0d
q4_df = append!(
q3_df,
select(
rename(q2_df, :chosen2 => :chosen),
Not([:new_u_maximum, :new_u_given_purchase])
)
)
# ╔═╡ 32f1cb93-f10f-4926-8406-6f9aa28a569f
describe(q4_df)
# ╔═╡ 16187462-3f7f-4d08-b9fa-4643e8c1074c
# Group by individual, calculate maximumⱼ(uᵢⱼ)
transform!(groupby(q4_df, :i), :new_u => maximum => :new_u_maximum)
# ╔═╡ 41c5a94b-5f4c-4fb4-ad2a-fc2ed0d7580a
# rename!(q2_df, :chosen => :chosen2)
q4_df.chosen = q4_df.new_u .== q4_df.new_u_maximum .≥ 0
# ╔═╡ 623b1ac9-28fe-4121-a5f1-23dc303454e5
transform!(q4_df, [:chosen, :new_u] => ((x,y) -> x .* y) => :new_u_given_purchase)
# ╔═╡ aea29755-d83a-41f9-9cc7-c463d4bf011f
q4_df_purchased = filter(row -> row.chosen ==1.0, q4_df)
# ╔═╡ fce2c865-3a3b-419c-a4bc-cdcb1e76299d
freqtable(q4_df, :chosen, :j)
# ╔═╡ d43d88ba-c16f-4be6-aca5-babd92917480
q4_df_summary = combine(groupby(q4_df_purchased, :j), :chosen => sum, :α => mean, :new_u_given_purchase => mean)
# ╔═╡ c9173715-88c2-4ed3-ab0e-f4c7091d58cd
begin
transform!(q4_df_summary, :chosen_sum => (x -> 100x / sum(x)) => :market_share)
q4_df_summary.cum_chosen = cumsum(q4_df_summary.chosen_sum)
q4_df_summary.market_share = round.(q4_df_summary.market_share, digits = 2)
end
# ╔═╡ ee0ccd8e-bf3c-4993-8d97-6c5b0ed10422
md"Now have to do the same steps to combine the new data with the original df"
# ╔═╡ 799493e6-6190-49d6-83a2-975d5b042d63
# add α column to original df
df[:,"α"] = repeat([1.0], 90000)
# ╔═╡ 2d5fec2b-f4b8-4dbf-9ac5-de4416678170
names(df)
# ╔═╡ f1baa106-9524-426d-9afe-e31375493bb9
q5_df = append!(
(DataFrame(
i = repeat(1:I, 1),
j = repeat([9], I),
ϵ = rand(GeneralizedExtremeValue(0,1,0), 10000),
chosen = repeat([0.0], 10000),
α = repeat([1.0], 10000),
x = repeat([3.0], 10000),
ξ = repeat([8.0], 10000),
p = repeat([10.0], 10000),
u = repeat([0.0], 10000)
)),
select(
rename(df, :chosen1 => :chosen),
Not([:u_given_purchase, :u_maximum])
)
)
# ╔═╡ 6667d7ca-aebe-4a76-96c9-be4ded0872e5
q5_df.u = β .* q5_df.x .- q5_df.α .* q5_df.p .+ q5_df.ξ .+ q5_df.ϵ
# ╔═╡ cdbdfdd6-8d37-4621-82d8-5f2389722045
# Group by individual, calculate maximumⱼ(uᵢⱼ)
transform!(groupby(q5_df, :i), :u => maximum => :u_maximum)
# ╔═╡ 7957c107-d1a9-479e-ae2a-5e1c208ab14c
# rename!(q5_df, :chosen => :chosen2)
q5_df.chosen = q5_df.u .≥ q5_df.u_maximum .≥ 0
# ╔═╡ 89a5c551-b5de-4784-a7fe-e534b9372073
transform!(q5_df, [:chosen, :u] => ((x,y) -> x .* y) => :u_given_purchase)
# ╔═╡ 2c491612-bc63-4ca8-bfbe-a628e0a78b8f
begin
q5_df_summary = combine(groupby(filter(row -> row.chosen ==1.0, q5_df), :j), :chosen => sum, :α => mean, :u_given_purchase => mean, :p => mean)
q5_df_summary.cum_chosen = cumsum(q5_df_summary.chosen_sum)
end
# ╔═╡ 847226a5-c264-4a1c-a767-78d007b94934
transform!(q5_df_summary, :chosen_sum => (x -> 100x / sum(x)) => :market_share)
# ╔═╡ f4efcbe1-180e-4fa6-813e-6b0fdf0acf0a
md"""
It looks like CS gain is slightly higher under the first model with α = 1, but only because total welfare is higher in that scenario.
The percentage change is actually higher on scenario two; however, the change is negligible:
"""
# ╔═╡ 9ae79f5b-7c09-49a4-b480-9738c044eb96
wellfare_gain_cons_percent = (sum(q5_df_summary.chosen_sum .* q5_df_summary.u_given_purchase_mean ./ q5_df_summary.α_mean) - sum(df_summary.chosen1_sum .* df_summary.u_given_purchase_mean))./sum(df_summary.chosen1_sum .* df_summary.u_given_purchase_mean).*100
# ╔═╡ 0c18d990-5406-4099-96ed-42da12d29680
wellfare_gain_uncertainty_percent = (sum(q4_df_summary.chosen_sum .* q4_df_summary.new_u_given_purchase_mean ./ q4_df_summary.α_mean) - sum(q2_df_summary.chosen2_sum .* q2_df_summary.new_u_given_purchase_mean ./ q2_df_summary.α_mean)) ./ sum(q2_df_summary.chosen2_sum .* q2_df_summary.new_u_given_purchase_mean ./ q2_df_summary.α_mean) .* 100
# ╔═╡ 4bc4f6a8-c72e-4b18-b97d-355ee2b082f6
md"Time to look at some graphs"
# ╔═╡ 847917f8-2684-4315-8575-9736d43c39e3
begin
market_share_plot = plot(legend = :top)
plot!(q5_df_summary.j, q5_df_summary.market_share,label = "J = 9, α = 1", lw = 3, la = 0.7)
plot!(df_summary.j, summary.market_share1, lw = 3, ls = :dash, la = 0.8, label = "J = 8, α = 1")
plot!(q4_df_summary.j, q4_df_summary.market_share, lw = 3, la = 0.6, label = "J=9, α~LNorm")
plot!(summary.j, summary.market_share2, lw = 3, ls = :dash, la = 0.8, label = "J=8, α~LNorm")
xlabel!("J")
ylabel!("Market Share (%)")
end
# ╔═╡ c2e66fe8-0b0c-4617-9a98-9908c9fcfe42
begin
cumsum_purchases_plot = plot(legend = :left, legendfontsize = 9)
plot!(q5_df_summary.j, cumsum(q5_df_summary.chosen_sum), label = "J=9, α=1", lw = 4, la = 0.5)
plot!(df_summary.j, cumsum(summary.chosen1_sum), ls = :dash, lw = 4, label = "J=8, α=1")
plot!(q4_df_summary.j, cumsum(q4_df_summary.chosen_sum), lw = 4, la = 0.5, label = "J=9, α~LNorm")
plot!(summary.j, cumsum(summary.chosen2_sum), ls = :dash, lw = 4, label = "J=8, α ~ LNorm")
xlabel!("J")
ylabel!("Cumulative Sum of Number of Purchases")
end
# ╔═╡ 611ee000-36fa-4c65-b7a1-ba1dcb8e0a10
q1_df = transform(df, [:u, :ϵ] => ((x,y) -> x .- y) => :δ)
# ╔═╡ 850285f0-db39-4077-8cc5-d2a934251093
q1_df.exp_δ = exp.(q1_df.δ)
# ╔═╡ de6f9175-314a-4ca2-b03b-441b7be7d429
# Calculate the sum of exp(δⱼ) ∀ j. Add to q1_df
transform!(groupby(q1_df, :i), :δ => (x -> sum(exp.(x))) => :sum_exp_δⱼ)
# ╔═╡ ea67d5de-15a5-430d-81e3-2907dbea1823
# Calculate choice probabilities by logit instead of by market share
transform!(groupby(q1_df, :j), [:exp_δ, :sum_exp_δⱼ] => ((x,y) -> round.(100 .* x ./ (1 .+ y), digits = 2)) => :prob)
# ╔═╡ ec25c08c-df0d-4e57-8ff1-3673f64797dd
q1_summary = combine(groupby(q1_df, :j), :prob => mean)
# ╔═╡ 83281bef-80a8-40ef-80d4-84015afdbab4
pretty_table(q1_summary)
# ╔═╡ 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001
PLUTO_PROJECT_TOML_CONTENTS = """
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VegaLite = "112f6efa-9a02-5b7d-90c0-432ed331239a"
[compat]
DataFrames = "~1.2.2"
Distributions = "~0.25.31"
FreqTables = "~0.4.5"
Plots = "~1.23.6"
Pluto = "~0.17.1"
PrettyTables = "~1.2.3"
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VegaLite = "~2.6.0"
"""
# ╔═╡ 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000002
PLUTO_MANIFEST_TOML_CONTENTS = """
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