From 3f952daf06ef990f2500732a2810367afd02f8cf Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Romain Ragonnet Date: Thu, 27 Jul 2023 16:43:37 +1000 Subject: [PATCH] Truncnormal target around seroprevalence --- .../sm_covid2/common_school/calibration.py | 14 ++++++++++---- 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/autumn/projects/sm_covid2/common_school/calibration.py b/autumn/projects/sm_covid2/common_school/calibration.py index 236a9f954..4fc49193b 100644 --- a/autumn/projects/sm_covid2/common_school/calibration.py +++ b/autumn/projects/sm_covid2/common_school/calibration.py @@ -63,11 +63,17 @@ def get_bcm_object(iso3, analysis="main"): if len(project.calibration.targets) > 1: sero_target = project.calibration.targets[1] targets.append( - est.BinomialTarget( - "prop_ever_infected_age_matched", - sero_target.data, - sample_sizes=sero_target.sample_sizes + est.TruncatedNormalTarget( + "prop_ever_infected_age_matched", + sero_target.data, + trunc_range=[0., 1.], # will reject runs with >10% attack rate before epidemic + stdev=.1 ) + # est.BinomialTarget( + # "prop_ever_infected_age_matched", + # sero_target.data, + # sample_sizes=sero_target.sample_sizes + # ) ) # Add a safeguard target to prevent a premature epidemic occurring before the first reported death