Financial Machine Learning Library

Applying machine learning and statistical methods to financial and markets data is deceptively difficult. Both classical and modern ML models and testing methods in their original form, although having been applied successfully in many fields, typically don't work on financial data.

This library implements a selected set of machine learning and statistical data structures and methods, motivated by the latest financial academic researches and practical industry experiences, that are modified and designed specially for handling financial and markets microstructure data. These tools are essential for either financial machine learning researchers, investment portfolio managers or quantitative trading practitioners.

Implementation Roadmap [WIP]

This library only provides the tools necessary for academic research or investment strategies design and management and not any specific investment/trading models or signals generation. Most of these tools are currently only available through very expensive commercial systems and software. The derivatives and portfolio management tools maybe split into separate projects

Financial ML & Statistical Methods

• Standard & information driven bars sampling
• Securities basket ETF trick and roll over adjustment
• Triple barrier labeling
• Label weighting by uniqueness, returns attribution and time decay
• Fractionally differentiated time series
• Cross validation
  • Purged K-Fold
  • Embargo
• Features importance
  • Mean decrease impurity
  • Mean decrease accuracy
• Backtesting
  • Strategy-independent position sizing
  • Walk-forward
  • Combinatorial purged CV
  • Synthetic data backtest
• Evaluation methods & metrics
  • Backtest metrics
  • Attribution
• Strategy risks
• Assets allocation
  • Hierarchical Risk Parity
• Features
  • Structural breaks
  • Entropy-based
  • Market microstructure features

... [TBD]

Derivatives Toolbox

• Futures (for equity, index, currency, commodities) valuation and hedging strategies
• Interest rates term structure derivation
• Bond pricing/duration/convexity calculation. Forward rate agreement (FRA) valuation
• Interest rate futures valuation and duration-based hedging strategies
• Valuation of vanilla interest rate and currency swaps
• OIS discounting calculator
• Valuation with credit risk factors: CVA, DVA
• Options hedging & speculation strategies: principal protected notes, spreads, option baskets
• Binomial trees valuation methods
• Black-Scholes-Merton model
• Employee stock option valuation
• Equity indices and currencies options valuation
• Futures option valuation
• Hedging with Greek letters (delta/theta/gamma/vega/rho hedging)
• Volatility smile tools
• Valuation methods using Monte Carlo simulation and finite difference
• Value at risk (VaR) models
• Volatilities & correlations estimation tools
• Credit risk estimation tools: using bond yield spread/CDS, using equity prices
• Credit derivatives valuation: CDS, CDS forwards & options, basket CDS, total return swaps, CDO, CDS and CDO basket correlation, synthetic CDO
• Exotic options valuation: perpetual options, gap options, barrier options, volitility & variance swaps etc.
• Alternative valuation models: Stochastic volatility models, IVF model, path-dependent derivatives, options on multiple correlated assets
• Convertible bond valuations
• Interest rate derivatives valuation: bond options, interest rate caps/floors, interest rate derivative hedging
• Convexity, timing & quanto adjustment tools
• Short rate models: equilibrium models (R&B, Vasicek, CIR), no arbitrage models (ho-lee, hull-white, BDT, BK), bond options, volatility structure, interest trees
• HJM, LMM, multiple zero curves models
• Complex swaps valuation: compouding swaps, equity swaps, swaps with embedded options
• Commodity and energy derivatives valuations
• Real options valuation

... [TBD]

Portfolio Management Toolbox

• Portfolio optimization using Markowitz's mean-variance models
• Bonds portfolio management and hedging tools
• Market equilibrium models: capital asset pricing model, arbitrage pricing model
• Portfolio evaluation tools

--- [TBD]

Other Papers

• Systematic default for market return prediction using structural credit risk model

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References

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