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1. What is the influence of ensemble size?

The uncertainty of the ensemble mean decreases with the square root of the ensemble size. This remains true for other variables: Net Surface Heat flux, NHF regressed on SST, PR, Sea Surface Height, SST regressed on SSH, SST, Taux regressed on SST, Tauy

  • project: CMIP6

  • experiments: piControl, historical

  • epoch lengths: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120, 135, 150-year

  • regions: Niño4 (5N-5S, 160E-150W), Niño3.4 (5N-5S, 120-170W), Niño3 (5N-5S, 90-150W)

  • variable: Taux (seasonal cycle removed for variance and skewness)

  • statistics: mean, variance, skewness

Computed using equation (9) from Planton et al. (preprint)

<iframe src="f03_uncertainty_vs_ensemble_size_tx.pdf" width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0" />