forked from ezylstra/Zylstra_etal_2021_NEE
-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 2
/
HierarchicalPartitioning_EarlyWinter_2004-2018.R
795 lines (680 loc) · 34.5 KB
/
HierarchicalPartitioning_EarlyWinter_2004-2018.R
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
616
617
618
619
620
621
622
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
668
669
670
671
672
673
674
675
676
677
678
679
680
681
682
683
684
685
686
687
688
689
690
691
692
693
694
695
696
697
698
699
700
701
702
703
704
705
706
707
708
709
710
711
712
713
714
715
716
717
718
719
720
721
722
723
724
725
726
727
728
729
730
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
738
739
740
741
742
743
744
745
746
747
748
749
750
751
752
753
754
755
756
757
758
759
760
761
762
763
764
765
766
767
768
769
770
771
772
773
774
775
776
777
778
779
780
781
782
783
784
785
786
787
788
789
790
791
792
793
794
795
###########################################################################################################################################
#Full-annual-cycle model for monarch butterflies in eastern North America
#Years included: 2004-2018
#Running models with different combinations of covariates in the winter submodel
#Using hierarchical partitioning methods to calculate the percent of explained variation in the area occupied
#by monarchs in early winter that is attributable to each covariate.
###########################################################################################################################################
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Set working directory and load packages
#------------------------------------------------------------#
setwd()
# rm(list=ls()) #clear workspace if needed
library(plyr)
library(reshape2)
library(rstan)
rstan_options(auto_write = TRUE)
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Read in data (assuming these files are in a "Data" subfolder)
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#Summer monarch data
summer <- read.csv('Data/Monarchs_summer.csv',header=TRUE,stringsAsFactors=FALSE)
#Winter monarch data
winter <- read.csv('Data/Monarchs_winter.csv',header=TRUE,stringsAsFactors=FALSE)
#Covariates: year
cov.y <- read.csv('Data/Covariates_Year.csv',header=TRUE)
#Covariates: county
cov.c <- read.table('Data/Covariates_County.txt',sep='\t',header=TRUE,quote='\"',
colClasses=c(rep('numeric',2),rep('character',4),rep('numeric',8)))
#Covariates: county * year
cov.cy <- read.csv('Data/Covariates_CountyYear.csv',header=TRUE)
#Covariates: county * year * week
cov.cw <- read.csv('Data/Covariates_CountyWeek.csv',header=TRUE)
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Format summer survey data
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#Specify number of weeks, years, counties, sites, etc.
uyears <- sort(unique(summer$yr))
n_years <- length(uyears)
uweeks <- sort(unique(summer$wk))
n_weeks <- length(uweeks)
ucounties <- cov.c$county.ind
n_counties <- length(ucounties)
usites <- sort(unique(summer$site.ind))
n_sites <- length(usites)
#Add indicators for state monitoring programs (using NABA as a reference level)
summer$ia.ind <- ifelse(summer$program=='Iowa',1,0)
summer$il.ind <- ifelse(summer$program=='Illinois',1,0)
summer$mi.ind <- ifelse(summer$program=='Michigan',1,0)
summer$oh.ind <- ifelse(summer$program=='Ohio',1,0)
#Scale effort by the mean
effortmean <- mean(summer$duration) #2.85 party hours
summer$effort.sc <- summer$duration/effortmean
#Standardize estimates of percent non-forested in immediate survey area (open)
openS.m <- mean(summer$perc.open)
openS.sd <- sd(summer$perc.open)
summer$openS.st <- (summer$perc.open - openS.m)/openS.sd
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Standardize annual covariates for summer model
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#Size of monarch population in late February (Feb)
feb.m <- mean(cov.y$feb)
feb.sd <- sd(cov.y$feb)
cov.y$feb.st <- (cov.y$feb - feb.m)/feb.sd
#GDD in spring, eastern Texas (spGDD)
spGDD.m <- mean(cov.y$spGDD.east)
spGDD.sd <- sd(cov.y$spGDD.east)
cov.y$spGDD.st <- (cov.y$spGDD.east - spGDD.m)/spGDD.sd
#Quadratic
cov.y$spGDD.st2 <- cov.y$spGDD.st*cov.y$spGDD.st
#Precipitation in spring, eastern Texas (spPCP)
spPCP.m <- mean(cov.y$spPCP.east)
spPCP.sd <- sd(cov.y$spPCP.east)
cov.y$spPCP.st <- (cov.y$spPCP.east - spPCP.m)/spPCP.sd
#Quadratic
cov.y$spPCP.st2 <- cov.y$spPCP.st*cov.y$spPCP.st
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Standardize county covariates
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#First, make sure dataframe is sorted by county index
cov.c <- cov.c[with(cov.c,order(county.ind)),]
#Average GDD for weeks 10-24 across all years of the study (avgGDD)
avgGDD.m <- mean(cov.c$avgGDD)
avgGDD.sd <- sd(cov.c$avgGDD)
cov.c$avgGDD.st <- (cov.c$avgGDD - avgGDD.m)/avgGDD.sd
#Average precipitation for AMJJA across all years of the study (avgPCP)
avgPCP.m <- mean(cov.c$avgPCP)
avgPCP.sd <- sd(cov.c$avgPCP)
cov.c$avgPCP.st <- (cov.c$avgPCP - avgPCP.m)/avgPCP.sd
#Percent crop (crop)
cropC.m <- mean(cov.c$perc.crop)
cropC.sd <- sd(cov.c$perc.crop)
cov.c$cropC.st <- (cov.c$perc.crop - cropC.m)/cropC.sd
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Standardize county*year covariates
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#First, make sure dataframe is sorted by county and year index
cov.cy <- cov.cy[with(cov.cy,order(yr,county.ind)),]
#Proportion of corn/soy crops sprayed with glyphosate (gly)
gly.m <- mean(cov.cy$glyphosate)
gly.sd <- sd(cov.cy$glyphosate)
cov.cy$gly.st <- (cov.cy$glyphosate-gly.m)/gly.sd
#Summer precipitation (annual deviations from 2004-2018 means for AMJJA) (diffPCP)
diffPCP.m <- mean(cov.cy$diffPCP)
diffPCP.sd <- sd(cov.cy$diffPCP)
cov.cy$diffPCP.st <- (cov.cy$diffPCP - diffPCP.m)/diffPCP.sd
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Standardize county*week covariates
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#First, make sure dataframe is sorted by county, week, and year index
cov.cw <- cov.cw[with(cov.cw,order(yr,wk,county.ind)),]
#Difference between GDD and average GDD for that week and county across all years of the study (diffGDD)
diffGDD.m <- mean(cov.cw$diffGDD)
diffGDD.sd <- sd(cov.cw$diffGDD)
cov.cw$diffGDD.st <- (cov.cw$diffGDD-diffGDD.m)/diffGDD.sd
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Combine ecological covariates for summer model in long form (nrows = counties*years*weeks)
#------------------------------------------------------------#
cyw <- expand.grid(wk=uweeks,county.ind=ucounties,yr=uyears)
cyw$yr.ind <- cyw$yr-2003
#Standarize week
wk.m <- mean(cyw$wk)
wk.sd <- sd(cyw$wk)
cyw$wk.st <- (cyw$wk-wk.m)/wk.sd
cyw <- join(cyw,cov.y[,c('yr','feb.st','spGDD.st','spGDD.st2','spPCP.st','spPCP.st2')],by='yr',type='left')
cyw <- join(cyw,cov.c[,c('county.ind','avgGDD.st','avgPCP.st','cropC.st')],by='county.ind',type='left')
cyw <- join(cyw,cov.cy[,c('county.ind','yr','diffPCP.st','gly.st')],by=c('county.ind','yr'),type='left')
cyw <- join(cyw,cov.cw[,c('county.ind','yr','wk','diffGDD.st')],by=c('county.ind','yr','wk'),type='left')
cyw$diffavgGDD <- cyw$diffGDD.st*cyw$avgGDD.st
cyw$diffGDD.st2 <- cyw$diffGDD.st*cyw$diffGDD.st
cyw$diffavgPCP <- cyw$diffPCP.st*cyw$avgPCP.st
cyw$diffPCP.st2 <- cyw$diffPCP.st*cyw$diffPCP.st
cyw$glycrop <- cyw$gly.st*cyw$cropC.st
cyw <- cyw[,c('county.ind','yr','yr.ind','wk','wk.st','feb.st','spGDD.st','spGDD.st2','spPCP.st','spPCP.st2',
'avgGDD.st','diffGDD.st','diffGDD.st2','diffavgGDD',
'avgPCP.st','diffPCP.st','diffPCP.st2','diffavgPCP',
'gly.st','cropC.st','glycrop')]
names(cyw)[6:21] <- c('feb','spGDD','spGDD2','spPCP','spPCP2',
'avgGDD','diffGDD','diffGDD2','diffavgGDD',
'avgPCP','diffPCP','diffPCP2','diffavgPCP',
'gly','crop','glycrop')
#Need to sort in a particular way to create the model-based index in STAN
#Put first 5 weeks (16-20) on top
#Then sort week-fastest, year-slowest: first 4 rows would be county=1, yr=2004, wk=21-24, next 4 rows = county=2, yr=2004, wk=21-24
cyw15 <- cyw[cyw$wk %in% 16:20,]
cyw69 <- cyw[cyw$wk %in% 21:24,]
# head(cyw69); tail(cyw69)
cyw <- rbind(cyw15,cyw69)
#Create an index for unique combinations of county, year, and week
cyw$cyw.ind <- 1:nrow(cyw)
#Attach indices to the survey data
summer <- join(summer,cyw[,c('county.ind','wk','yr','cyw.ind')],by=c('county.ind','wk','yr'),type='left')
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Format winter data
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#Sort dataframe
winter <- winter[with(winter,order(supercolony.ind,yr)),]
#Specify number of supercolonies
ucolonies <- sort(unique(winter$supercolony.ind))
n_colonies <- length(ucolonies)
#Create an index for monarch presence
winter$present <- ifelse(winter$area>0,1,0)
index_present <- which(winter$present==1)
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Standardize annual covariates for winter model
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#NDVI in northern half of autumn migration corridor (nectar)
winter$nectar1 <- cov.y$NDVIR1[match(winter$yr,cov.y$yr)]
nectar1.m <- mean(winter$nectar1)
nectar1.sd <- sd(winter$nectar1)
winter$nectar1.st <- (winter$nectar1 - nectar1.m)/nectar1.sd
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Standardize supercolony*year covariate
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#Percent dense forest cover (forest)
dense.m <- mean(winter$forest.dense.p)
dense.sd <- sd(winter$forest.dense.p)
winter$dense.st <- (winter$forest.dense.p-dense.m)/dense.sd
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# For each county, calculate weights based on area non-forested land
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#Area non-forested land
area.open <- as.vector(cov.c$area.land.sqmi*cov.c$perc.open/100)
weights.open <- area.open/sum(area.open)
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Calculating observed values for posterior predictive checks
#------------------------------------------------------------#
#Summer counts
#Counts divided by scaled effort (note: includes 0 counts)
sccounts <- summer$monarch/summer$effort.sc
sccount.mn <- mean(sccounts)
sccount.sd <- sd(sccounts)
#Winter areas
#Non-zero areas
area.n0 <- winter$area[winter$area>0]
area.mn <- mean(area.n0)
area.sd <- sd(area.n0)
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
# Package up data, initial values, parameters, and run in STAN
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
#Survey-level covariates in matrix
X_survey <- as.matrix(summer[,c('ia.ind','il.ind','mi.ind','oh.ind','openS.st')])
#County-year-week covariates
X_county <- as.matrix(cyw[,c('feb','spGDD','spGDD2','spPCP','spPCP2',
'avgGDD','diffGDD','diffGDD2','diffavgGDD',
'avgPCP','diffPCP','diffPCP2','diffavgPCP',
'gly','crop','glycrop')])
#MCMC parameter
ni <- 3000 # No. iterations (including warmup)
nb <- 500 # No. burn-in iterations to discard (ie, warmup)
nt <- 1 # Thin rate
nc <- 3 # No. chains
#-Null model----------------------------------------------------------------#
#Covariates in winter model
#X_winter <- as.matrix(winter[,c('nectar1.st','dense.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('nectar1.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('dense.st')])
#Bundle data
standata <- list(n_years=n_years,
n_counties=n_counties,
n_cyw=nrow(cyw),
n_surveys=nrow(summer),
n_colonies=n_colonies,
n_obs=nrow(winter),
year_id=cyw$yr.ind,
cyw_id=summer$cyw.ind,
colony_id=winter$supercolony.ind,
n_cov_alpha=ncol(X_county),
n_cov_beta=ncol(X_survey),
#n_cov_gamma=ncol(X_winter),
X_county=X_county,
week_st=cyw$wk.st,
X_survey=X_survey,
effort=summer$effort.sc,
#X_winter=X_winter,
y_count=summer$monarch,
area=winter$area,
index_present=index_present)
#Initial values
set.seed(123)
inits <- lapply(1:nc, function(i)
list(alpha0=runif(1,1,4),
alphaFE=runif(ncol(X_county),-1,1),
alpha_week=runif(n_years,-1,1),
alpha_week2=runif(n_years,-1,1),
betaFE=runif(ncol(X_survey),-1,1),
pocc_mn=runif(n_colonies,0,1),
gamma0=runif(n_colonies,-3,1),
#gamma_sum=runif(1,-1,1),
#gammaFE=runif(ncol(X_winter),-1,1),
shape=runif(1,0,2),
phi=runif(1,0,5)))
#Parameters to monitor
params <- c('alpha0','alphaFE','alpha_week','alpha_week2','betaFE','phi',
'pocc_mn','gamma0','shape',
'sccount_pred_mn','sccount_pred_sd','area_pred_mn','area_pred_sd',
'sum_log_lik','win_log_lik')
out.null <- stan('FullModel_HierPart_Winter_0FE_NoSummer.stan',
control=list(adapt_delta=0.8), data=standata, init=inits, pars=params,
chains=nc, iter=ni, warmup=nb, thin=nt, seed=1, cores=3, open_progress=FALSE)
#-Summer model----------------------------------------------------------------#
#Covariates in winter model
#X_winter <- as.matrix(winter[,c('nectar1.st','dense.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('nectar1.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('dense.st')])
#Bundle data
standata <- list(n_years=n_years,
n_counties=n_counties,
n_cyw=nrow(cyw),
n_surveys=nrow(summer),
n_colonies=n_colonies,
n_obs=nrow(winter),
year_id=cyw$yr.ind,
cyw_id=summer$cyw.ind,
colony_id=winter$supercolony.ind,
n_cov_alpha=ncol(X_county),
n_cov_beta=ncol(X_survey),
#n_cov_gamma=ncol(X_winter),
X_county=X_county,
week_st=cyw$wk.st,
X_survey=X_survey,
effort=summer$effort.sc,
#X_winter=X_winter,
y_count=summer$monarch,
area=winter$area,
weights=weights.open,
ind1=seq(1,n_counties*n_years*4,by=4),
ind2=seq(1,n_counties*n_years,by=n_counties),
start_peak=which(cyw$wk %in% 21:24)[1],
n_peak=sum(cyw$wk %in% 21:24),
n_cy=n_counties*n_years,
index_present=index_present)
#Initial values
set.seed(123)
inits <- lapply(1:nc, function(i)
list(alpha0=runif(1,1,4),
alphaFE=runif(ncol(X_county),-1,1),
alpha_week=runif(n_years,-1,1),
alpha_week2=runif(n_years,-1,1),
betaFE=runif(ncol(X_survey),-1,1),
pocc_mn=runif(n_colonies,0,1),
gamma0=runif(n_colonies,-3,-1),
gamma_sum=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
#gammaFE=runif(ncol(X_winter),-0.5,0.5),
shape=runif(1,0,2),
phi=runif(1,0,5)))
#Parameters to monitor
params <- c('alpha0','alphaFE','alpha_week','alpha_week2','betaFE','phi',
'pocc_mn','gamma0','gamma_sum','shape','pred_orig','pred_sum',
'sccount_pred_mn','sccount_pred_sd','area_pred_mn','area_pred_sd',
'sum_log_lik','win_log_lik')
out.S <- stan('FullModel_HierPart_Winter_0FE_InclSummer.stan',
control=list(adapt_delta=0.8), data=standata, init=inits, pars=params,
chains=nc, iter=ni, warmup=nb, thin=nt, seed=1, cores=3, open_progress=FALSE)
#-Nectar model----------------------------------------------------------------#
#Covariates in winter model
#X_winter <- as.matrix(winter[,c('nectar1.st','dense.st')])
X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('nectar1.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('dense.st')])
#Bundle data
standata <- list(n_years=n_years,
n_counties=n_counties,
n_cyw=nrow(cyw),
n_surveys=nrow(summer),
n_colonies=n_colonies,
n_obs=nrow(winter),
year_id=cyw$yr.ind,
cyw_id=summer$cyw.ind,
colony_id=winter$supercolony.ind,
n_cov_alpha=ncol(X_county),
n_cov_beta=ncol(X_survey),
#n_cov_gamma=ncol(X_winter),
X_county=X_county,
week_st=cyw$wk.st,
X_survey=X_survey,
effort=summer$effort.sc,
X_winter=X_winter,
y_count=summer$monarch,
area=winter$area,
index_present=index_present)
#Initial values
set.seed(123)
inits <- lapply(1:nc, function(i)
list(alpha0=runif(1,1,4),
alphaFE=runif(ncol(X_county),-1,1),
alpha_week=runif(n_years,-1,1),
alpha_week2=runif(n_years,-1,1),
betaFE=runif(ncol(X_survey),-1,1),
pocc_mn=runif(n_colonies,0,1),
gamma0=runif(n_colonies,-3,-1),
#gamma_sum=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
gammaFE=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
shape=runif(1,0,2),
phi=runif(1,0,5)))
#Parameters to monitor
params <- c('alpha0','alphaFE','alpha_week','alpha_week2','betaFE','phi',
'pocc_mn','gamma0','gammaFE','shape',
'sccount_pred_mn','sccount_pred_sd','area_pred_mn','area_pred_sd',
'sum_log_lik','win_log_lik')
out.N <- stan('FullModel_HierPart_Winter_1FE_NoSummer.stan',
control=list(adapt_delta=0.8), data=standata, init=inits, pars=params,
chains=nc, iter=ni, warmup=nb, thin=nt, seed=1, cores=3, open_progress=FALSE)
#-Forest cover model----------------------------------------------------------------#
#Covariates in winter model
#X_winter <- as.matrix(winter[,c('nectar1.st','dense.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('nectar1.st')])
X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('dense.st')])
#Bundle data
standata <- list(n_years=n_years,
n_counties=n_counties,
n_cyw=nrow(cyw),
n_surveys=nrow(summer),
n_colonies=n_colonies,
n_obs=nrow(winter),
year_id=cyw$yr.ind,
cyw_id=summer$cyw.ind,
colony_id=winter$supercolony.ind,
n_cov_alpha=ncol(X_county),
n_cov_beta=ncol(X_survey),
#n_cov_gamma=ncol(X_winter),
X_county=X_county,
week_st=cyw$wk.st,
X_survey=X_survey,
effort=summer$effort.sc,
X_winter=X_winter,
y_count=summer$monarch,
area=winter$area,
index_present=index_present)
#Initial values
set.seed(123)
inits <- lapply(1:nc, function(i)
list(alpha0=runif(1,1,4),
alphaFE=runif(ncol(X_county),-1,1),
alpha_week=runif(n_years,-1,1),
alpha_week2=runif(n_years,-1,1),
betaFE=runif(ncol(X_survey),-1,1),
pocc_mn=runif(n_colonies,0,1),
gamma0=runif(n_colonies,-3,-1),
#gamma_sum=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
gammaFE=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
shape=runif(1,0,2),
phi=runif(1,0,5)))
#Parameters to monitor
params <- c('alpha0','alphaFE','alpha_week','alpha_week2','betaFE','phi',
'pocc_mn','gamma0','gammaFE','shape',
'sccount_pred_mn','sccount_pred_sd','area_pred_mn','area_pred_sd',
'sum_log_lik','win_log_lik')
out.C <- stan('FullModel_HierPart_Winter_1FE_NoSummer.stan',
control=list(adapt_delta=0.8), data=standata, init=inits, pars=params,
chains=nc, iter=ni, warmup=nb, thin=nt, seed=1, cores=3, open_progress=FALSE)
#-Summer, nectar model----------------------------------------------------------------#
#Covariates in winter model
#X_winter <- as.matrix(winter[,c('nectar1.st','dense.st')])
X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('nectar1.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('dense.st')])
#Bundle data
standata <- list(n_years=n_years,
n_counties=n_counties,
n_cyw=nrow(cyw),
n_surveys=nrow(summer),
n_colonies=n_colonies,
n_obs=nrow(winter),
year_id=cyw$yr.ind,
cyw_id=summer$cyw.ind,
colony_id=winter$supercolony.ind,
n_cov_alpha=ncol(X_county),
n_cov_beta=ncol(X_survey),
#n_cov_gamma=ncol(X_winter),
X_county=X_county,
week_st=cyw$wk.st,
X_survey=X_survey,
effort=summer$effort.sc,
X_winter=X_winter,
y_count=summer$monarch,
area=winter$area,
weights=weights.open,
ind1=seq(1,n_counties*n_years*4,by=4),
ind2=seq(1,n_counties*n_years,by=n_counties),
start_peak=which(cyw$wk %in% 21:24)[1],
n_peak=sum(cyw$wk %in% 21:24),
n_cy=n_counties*n_years,
index_present=index_present)
#Initial values
set.seed(123)
inits <- lapply(1:nc, function(i)
list(alpha0=runif(1,1,4),
alphaFE=runif(ncol(X_county),-1,1),
alpha_week=runif(n_years,-1,1),
alpha_week2=runif(n_years,-1,1),
betaFE=runif(ncol(X_survey),-1,1),
pocc_mn=runif(n_colonies,0,1),
gamma0=runif(n_colonies,-3,-1),
gamma_sum=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
gammaFE=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
shape=runif(1,0,2),
phi=runif(1,0,5)))
#Parameters to monitor
params <- c('alpha0','alphaFE','alpha_week','alpha_week2','betaFE','phi',
'pocc_mn','gamma0','gamma_sum','gammaFE','shape','pred_orig','pred_sum',
'sccount_pred_mn','sccount_pred_sd','area_pred_mn','area_pred_sd',
'sum_log_lik','win_log_lik')
out.SN <- stan('FullModel_HierPart_Winter_1FE_InclSummer.stan',
control=list(adapt_delta=0.8), data=standata, init=inits, pars=params,
chains=nc, iter=ni, warmup=nb, thin=nt, seed=1, cores=3, open_progress=FALSE)
#-Summer, forest cover model----------------------------------------------------------------#
#Covariates in winter model
#X_winter <- as.matrix(winter[,c('nectar1.st','dense.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('nectar1.st')])
X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('dense.st')])
#Bundle data
standata <- list(n_years=n_years,
n_counties=n_counties,
n_cyw=nrow(cyw),
n_surveys=nrow(summer),
n_colonies=n_colonies,
n_obs=nrow(winter),
year_id=cyw$yr.ind,
cyw_id=summer$cyw.ind,
colony_id=winter$supercolony.ind,
n_cov_alpha=ncol(X_county),
n_cov_beta=ncol(X_survey),
#n_cov_gamma=ncol(X_winter),
X_county=X_county,
week_st=cyw$wk.st,
X_survey=X_survey,
effort=summer$effort.sc,
X_winter=X_winter,
y_count=summer$monarch,
area=winter$area,
weights=weights.open,
ind1=seq(1,n_counties*n_years*4,by=4),
ind2=seq(1,n_counties*n_years,by=n_counties),
start_peak=which(cyw$wk %in% 21:24)[1],
n_peak=sum(cyw$wk %in% 21:24),
n_cy=n_counties*n_years,
index_present=index_present)
#Initial values
set.seed(123)
inits <- lapply(1:nc, function(i)
list(alpha0=runif(1,1,4),
alphaFE=runif(ncol(X_county),-1,1),
alpha_week=runif(n_years,-1,1),
alpha_week2=runif(n_years,-1,1),
betaFE=runif(ncol(X_survey),-1,1),
pocc_mn=runif(n_colonies,0,1),
gamma0=runif(n_colonies,-3,-1),
gamma_sum=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
gammaFE=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
shape=runif(1,0,2),
phi=runif(1,0,5)))
#Parameters to monitor
params <- c('alpha0','alphaFE','alpha_week','alpha_week2','betaFE','phi',
'pocc_mn','gamma0','gamma_sum','gammaFE','shape','pred_orig','pred_sum',
'sccount_pred_mn','sccount_pred_sd','area_pred_mn','area_pred_sd',
'sum_log_lik','win_log_lik')
out.SC <- stan('FullModel_HierPart_Winter_1FE_InclSummer.stan',
control=list(adapt_delta=0.8), data=standata, init=inits, pars=params,
chains=nc, iter=ni, warmup=nb, thin=nt, seed=1, cores=3, open_progress=FALSE)
#-Nectar, forest cover model----------------------------------------------------------------#
#Covariates in winter model
X_winter <- as.matrix(winter[,c('nectar1.st','dense.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('nectar1.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('dense.st')])
#Bundle data
standata <- list(n_years=n_years,
n_counties=n_counties,
n_cyw=nrow(cyw),
n_surveys=nrow(summer),
n_colonies=n_colonies,
n_obs=nrow(winter),
year_id=cyw$yr.ind,
cyw_id=summer$cyw.ind,
colony_id=winter$supercolony.ind,
n_cov_alpha=ncol(X_county),
n_cov_beta=ncol(X_survey),
n_cov_gamma=ncol(X_winter),
X_county=X_county,
week_st=cyw$wk.st,
X_survey=X_survey,
effort=summer$effort.sc,
X_winter=X_winter,
y_count=summer$monarch,
area=winter$area,
index_present=index_present)
#Initial values
set.seed(123)
inits <- lapply(1:nc, function(i)
list(alpha0=runif(1,1,4),
alphaFE=runif(ncol(X_county),-1,1),
alpha_week=runif(n_years,-1,1),
alpha_week2=runif(n_years,-1,1),
betaFE=runif(ncol(X_survey),-1,1),
pocc_mn=runif(n_colonies,0,1),
gamma0=runif(n_colonies,-3,-1),
#gamma_sum=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
gammaFE=runif(ncol(X_winter),-0.5,0.5),
shape=runif(1,0,2),
phi=runif(1,0,5)))
#Parameters to monitor
params <- c('alpha0','alphaFE','alpha_week','alpha_week2','betaFE','phi',
'pocc_mn','gamma0','gammaFE','shape',
'sccount_pred_mn','sccount_pred_sd','area_pred_mn','area_pred_sd',
'sum_log_lik','win_log_lik')
out.NC <- stan('FullModel_HierPart_Winter_2FE_NoSummer.stan',
control=list(adapt_delta=0.8), data=standata, init=inits, pars=params,
chains=nc, iter=ni, warmup=nb, thin=nt, seed=1, cores=3, open_progress=FALSE)
#-Summer, nectar, forest cover model----------------------------------------------------------------#
#Covariates in winter model
X_winter <- as.matrix(winter[,c('nectar1.st','dense.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('nectar1.st')])
#X_winter <- as.vector(winter[,c('dense.st')])
#Bundle data
standata <- list(n_years=n_years,
n_counties=n_counties,
n_cyw=nrow(cyw),
n_surveys=nrow(summer),
n_colonies=n_colonies,
n_obs=nrow(winter),
year_id=cyw$yr.ind,
cyw_id=summer$cyw.ind,
colony_id=winter$supercolony.ind,
n_cov_alpha=ncol(X_county),
n_cov_beta=ncol(X_survey),
n_cov_gamma=ncol(X_winter),
X_county=X_county,
week_st=cyw$wk.st,
X_survey=X_survey,
effort=summer$effort.sc,
X_winter=X_winter,
y_count=summer$monarch,
area=winter$area,
weights=weights.open,
ind1=seq(1,n_counties*n_years*4,by=4),
ind2=seq(1,n_counties*n_years,by=n_counties),
start_peak=which(cyw$wk %in% 21:24)[1],
n_peak=sum(cyw$wk %in% 21:24),
n_cy=n_counties*n_years,
index_present=index_present)
#Initial values
set.seed(1234)
inits <- lapply(1:nc, function(i)
list(alpha0=runif(1,1,4),
alphaFE=runif(ncol(X_county),-1,1),
alpha_week=runif(n_years,-1,1),
alpha_week2=runif(n_years,-1,1),
betaFE=runif(ncol(X_survey),-1,1),
pocc_mn=runif(n_colonies,0,1),
gamma0=runif(n_colonies,-3,-1),
gamma_sum=runif(1,-0.5,0.5),
gammaFE=runif(ncol(X_winter),-0.5,0.5),
shape=runif(1,0,2),
phi=runif(1,0,5)))
#Parameters to monitor
params <- c('alpha0','alphaFE','alpha_week','alpha_week2','betaFE','phi',
'pocc_mn','gamma0','gamma_sum','gammaFE','shape','pred_orig','pred_sum',
'sccount_pred_mn','sccount_pred_sd','area_pred_mn','area_pred_sd',
'sum_log_lik','win_log_lik')
out.SNC <- stan('FullModel_HierPart_Winter_2FE_InclSummer.stan',
control=list(adapt_delta=0.8), data=standata, init=inits, pars=params,
chains=nc, iter=ni, warmup=nb, thin=nt, seed=1, cores=3, open_progress=FALSE)
#------------------------------------------------------------#
# Hierarchical partitioning
#------------------------------------------------------------#
outlist.w <- list(out.null=out.null,
out.S=out.S,
out.N=out.N,
out.C=out.C,
out.SN=out.SN,
out.SC=out.SC,
out.NC=out.NC,
out.SNC=out.SNC)
df.w <- data.frame(model=names(outlist.w),stringsAsFactors=FALSE)
df.w$S <- ifelse(grepl('S',df.w$model),1,0)
df.w$N <- ifelse(grepl('N',df.w$model),1,0)
df.w$C <- ifelse(grepl('C',df.w$model),1,0)
df.w$logL <- sapply(outlist.w,function(x) round(summary(x)$summary['win_log_lik','50%'],2))
df.w$maxR <- sapply(outlist.w,function(x) round(max(summary(x)$summary[,'Rhat']),4))
df.w[order(-df.w$logL),]
#Level of hierarchy (0-3 = 0-3 covariate groups, respectively)
df.w$hier <- apply(df.w[,c('S','N','C')],1,sum)
#Binary string that indicates which covariates in each model
df.w$modelc <- paste0(df.w$S,df.w$N,df.w$C)
#Create dataframe with all nested model pairs
allpairs.w <- expand.grid(model1=df.w$modelc,model0=df.w$modelc)
allpairs.w <- allpairs.w[allpairs.w$model1!=allpairs.w$model0,]
allpairs.w$hier1 <- df.w$hier[match(allpairs.w$model1,df.w$modelc)]
allpairs.w$hier0 <- df.w$hier[match(allpairs.w$model0,df.w$modelc)]
allpairs.w <- allpairs.w[allpairs.w$hier1-allpairs.w$hier0==1,]
allpairs.w$S.1 <- as.numeric(substr(allpairs.w$model1,1,1))
allpairs.w$N.1 <- as.numeric(substr(allpairs.w$model1,2,2))
allpairs.w$C.1 <- as.numeric(substr(allpairs.w$model1,3,3))
allpairs.w$S.0 <- as.numeric(substr(allpairs.w$model0,1,1))
allpairs.w$N.0 <- as.numeric(substr(allpairs.w$model0,2,2))
allpairs.w$C.0 <- as.numeric(substr(allpairs.w$model0,3,3))
allpairs.w$S <- allpairs.w$S.1 + allpairs.w$S.0
allpairs.w$N <- allpairs.w$N.1 + allpairs.w$N.0
allpairs.w$C <- allpairs.w$C.1 + allpairs.w$C.0
allpairs.w$nBoth <- apply(allpairs.w[,c('S','N','C')],1,function(x) sum(x==2))
allpairs.w <- allpairs.w[allpairs.w$hier0==allpairs.w$nBoth,]
#Calculate difference in logL for each pair
allpairs.w$logL1 <- df.w$logL[match(allpairs.w$model1,df.w$modelc)]
allpairs.w$logL0 <- df.w$logL[match(allpairs.w$model0,df.w$modelc)]
allpairs.w$diff <- allpairs.w$logL1 - allpairs.w$logL0
#Identify covariate group that's different in each pair
allpairs.w$param.S <- ifelse(allpairs.w$S.1==1 & allpairs.w$S.0==0,1,0)
allpairs.w$param.N <- ifelse(allpairs.w$N.1==1 & allpairs.w$N.0==0,1,0)
allpairs.w$param.C <- ifelse(allpairs.w$C.1==1 & allpairs.w$C.0==0,1,0)
#Average logL differences for each covariate group and level of hierarchy
hpl.w <- data.frame(expand.grid(param=c('S','N','C'),hier=unique(allpairs.w$hier1),stringsAsFactors=FALSE))
for(i in 1:nrow(hpl.w)){
hpl.w$avg.level[i] <- mean(allpairs.w$diff[allpairs.w$hier1==hpl.w$hier[i] & allpairs.w[,paste0('param.',hpl.w$param[i])]==1])
}
#Mean of those averages for each covariate group
hp.w <- data.frame(param=unique(hpl.w$param))
for(i in 1:nrow(hp.w)){
hp.w$IC[i] <- mean(hpl.w$avg.level[hpl.w$param==hp.w$param[i]])
hp.w$IC.corr[i] <- max(hp.w$IC[i],0)
}
#Relativize values (divide by total)
hp.w$IC.perc <- round(hp.w$IC.corr/sum(hp.w$IC.corr)*100,2)
hp.w