The goal of this project is to create a machine learning model that accurately predicts 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates for 2022 in the United States. We will use open-sourced data publicly available online.
The gradual upward movement of prices due to inflation is a reflection of the overall economy and a critical factor for mortgage lenders. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of dollars over time. Mortgage lenders generally have to maintain interest rates at a level that is at least sufficient to overcome the erosion of purchasing power through inflation to ensure that their interest returns represent a real net profit. For example, if mortgage rates are at 5% but the level of annual inflation is at 2%, the real return on a loan in terms of the purchasing power of the dollars the lender gets back is only 3%. Therefore, mortgage lenders carefully monitor the rate of inflation and adjust rates accordingly.
Economic growth indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP) and the employment rate, influence mortgage rates. With economic growth comes higher wages and greater consumer spending, including consumers seeking mortgage loans for home purchases. That's good for a country's economy, but the upswing in the overall demand for mortgages tends to propel mortgage rates higher. The reason: lenders only have so much capital to lend. In a slowing economy, the opposite occurs. Employment and wages decline, leading to decreased demand for home loans, which puts downward pressure on the interest rates offered by mortgage lenders.
The monetary policy pursued by the Federal Reserve Bank is one of the most important factors influencing both the economy generally and interest rates specifically, including mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve does not set the specific interest rates in the mortgage market. However, its actions in establishing the Fed Funds rate and adjusting the money supply upward or downward have a significant impact on the interest rates available to the borrowing public.[1] Generally, increases in the money supply put downward pressure on rates while tightening the money supply pushes rates upward. It's a good idea to keep an eye on what the Fed is doing, however it’s more important to watch the economy as a whole, and pay attention to Treasury Yields to get a better indicator.
Banks and investment firms market mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) as investment products. The yields available from these debt securities must be sufficiently high to attract buyers. Part of this equation is the fact that government bonds and corporate bonds offer competing long-term fixed-income investments. The money you can earn on these competing investment products affects the yields the MBSs offer. The overall condition of the larger bond market indirectly affects how much lenders charge for mortgages. Lenders have to generate sufficient yields for MBSs to make them competitive in the total debt security market.[2] One frequently used government-bond benchmark to which mortgage lenders often peg their interest rates is the 10-Year Treasury bond yield. Typically, MBS sellers must offer higher yields because repayment is not 100% guaranteed as it is with government bonds.
Trends and conditions in the housing market also affect mortgage rates. When fewer homes are being built or offered for resale, the decline in home purchasing leads to a decline in the demand for mortgages and pushes interest rates downward. A recent trend that has also applied downward pressure to rates is an increasing number of consumers opting to rent rather than buy a home. Such changes in the availability of homes and consumer demand affect the levels at which mortgage lenders set loan rates.
Global economic factors and other world events can move interest rates in the United States—even with events that seem to have no direct correlation to the U.S. economy. The Doomsday Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world's vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.
Great Recession: December 2007 – June 2009 COVID-19 Recession: February 2020 – April 2020 The economic effects of the pandemic were severe after the first quarter of 2020. More than 24 million people lost jobs in the United States in just three weeks in April.[3]
[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/covid-19-faqs.htm
[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/economy/unemployment-claim-numbers-coronavirus.html