The only* objective way to ff15
You know those "who's winning" bars for games like Chess? Well, here's one for League of Legends! (Sort of.)
Brief Video Demo (Do Co-op vs. AI bots have souls?)
Popping off on Ahri
Inting on Tristana
Tossup (Maybe mid can carry... spoiler: nope)
Run the installer. (This app only works on Windows. Sorry Mac gamers :/)
This is a tiny widget (or vertical bar on Mac) that displays your current probability of winning in real time.
The predictions are generated by a plain logistic regression model. As input, the model is given:
- The current game time, in seconds
- The number of outer turrets, inner turrets, inhibitor turrets, inhibitors, and nexus turrets taken by each team
- The number of rift heralds, dragons (of all types), and barons killed by each team
- The current level, CS, and KDA of each champ
- Champion ratings for each of the teams
- This is inputted as two numbers for each rating: One summing all the blue team's values, and one for the red team.
- The intention here was to allow the model to learn the basics of team compositions. However, this input only led to a very slight improvement in the model's accuracy.
The model then outputs a single integer: The probabilty that the current player's team will win the game.
6706 matches scraped through Riot's official developer API were used for training. Snapshots of each match were taken every minute - each of these were turned into test cases for the model. In total, there were 168158 training examples and 30085 test examples.
Training set accuracy: 72.9% Test set accuracy: 73.1%
Overall, the model's accuracy rate is about 73%. However, this is not equally distributed across game time, as seen in the illustration below (created using only the test set).
Fancy graphs!
Warning: This project is very messy, there are lots of unused/old files everywhere and the Mac overlay (probably) doesn't work. Clone at your own risk!
See misc/requirements.txt for a list of dependencies.
Run overlay_predict_windows.py or overlay_predict_mac.py to start the widget, depending on your OS.