VARIABILITY OF GSAT

Figure number: Figure 3.6 From the IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report: Chapter 3

Description:

Simulated internal variability of global surface air temperature (GSAT) versus observed changes. (a) Time series of 5-year running mean GSAT anomalies in 45 CMIP6 pre-industrial control (unforced) simulations. The 10 most variable models in terms of 5-year running mean GSAT are coloured according to the legend on Figure 3.4. (b) Histograms of GSAT changes in CMIP6 historical simulations (extended by SSP2-4.5 simulations) from 1850-1900 to 2010-2019 are shown by pink shading in (c), and GSAT changes from the first 51 years average to the last 20 years average of 170-year overlapping segments of the pre-industrial control simulations shown in (a) are shown by blue shading. GMST changes in observational datasets for the same period are indicated by black vertical lines. (c) Observed GMST anomaly time series relative to the 1850-1900 average. Black lines represent the 5-year running means while grey lines show unfiltered annual time series.

Author list:

• Kosaka, Y.: University of Tokyo, Japan; ykosaka@atmos.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp
• Phillips, A.: NCAR, USA
• Bellouin, N.: University of Reading, UK
• Cassou, C.: CNRS-Cerfacs, France
• Gillett, N.: Environment and Climate Change Canada
• Bock, L.: DLR, Germany

Publication sources:

Please list any publications that describe, explain or use this figure.

• A paper title, A. Author et al, journal of science stuff 9, p51, DOI:564, 2021.

ESMValTool Branch:

• ESMValTool-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: ar6_chapter_3

ESMValCore Branch:

• ESMValCore-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: fix_cmip6_models_newcore

Recipe & diagnostics:

Recipe used: recipes/ipccwg1ar6ch3/recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3_fig_3_6.yml

Diagnostic used: diag_scripts/ipccwg1ar6ch3_gsat_pi/gsat_pi_hist_obs.ncl

Expected image path:

• recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3_fig_3_6_YYYYMMDD_HHMMSS/plots/gsat_pi+hist+obs/gsat_pi_hist_obs/gsat_pi+hist+obs.png

Software description:

• ESMValTool environment file: IPCC_environments/ar6_newcore_lisa_conda_environment.yml
• pip file: IPCC_environments/ar6_newcore_lisa_pip_environment.txt

Hardware description:

Machine used: Mistral