AMV

Figure number: Figure 3.40 From the IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report: Chapter 3

Description:

Model evaluation of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV). (a, b) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (ºC) regressed onto the AMV index defined as the 10-year low-pass filtered North Atlantic (0º-60°N, 80°W-0°E) area-weighted SST* anomalies over 1900-2014 in (a) ERSSTv5 and (b) the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) composite obtained by weighting ensemble members by the inverse of each model’s ensemble size. The asterisk denotes that the global mean SST anomaly has been removed at each time step of the computation. Cross marks in (a) represent regions where the anomalies are not significant at the 10% level based on a t-test. Diagonal lines in (b) show regions where less than 80% of the runs agree in sign. (c) A Taylor diagram summarizing the representation of the AMV pattern in CMIP5 (each member is shown as a cross in light blue, and the weighted multi-model mean is shown as a dot in dark blue), CMIP6 (each member is shown as a cross in red, and the weighted multi-model mean is shown as a dot in orange) and observations over [0º-60°N, 80°W-0°E]. The reference pattern is taken from ERSSTv5 and black dots indicate other observational products (HadISSTv1 and COBE-SST2). (d) Autocorrelation of unfiltered annual AMV index at lag 1 year and 10-year low-pass filtered AMV index at lag 10 years for observations over 1900-2014 (horizontal lines) and 115-year chunks of pre-industrial control simulations (open boxes) and individual historical simulations over 1900-2014 (filled boxes) from CMIP5 (blue) and CMIP6 (red). (e) As in (d), but showing standard deviation of the unfiltered and filtered AMV indices (ºC). Boxes and whiskers show the weighted multi-model mean, interquartile ranges and 5th and 95th percentiles. (f) Time series of the AMV index (ºC) in ERSSTv5, HadISSTv1 and COBE-SST2 observational estimates (black) and CMIP5 and CMIP6 historical simulations. The thick red and light blue lines are the weighted multi-model mean for the historical simulations in CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively, and the envelopes represent the 5th-95th percentile range obtained from all ensemble members. The 5-95% confidence interval for the CMIP6 MME is shown by the thin dashed line.

Author list:

• Phillips, A.: NCAR, USA; asphilli@ucar.edu
• Kosaka, Y.: University of Tokyo, Japan
• Cassou, C.: CNRS-Cerfacs, France
• Karmouche, S.: University of Bremen, Germany
• Bock, L.: DLR, Germany
• Kazeroni, R.: DLR, Germany

ESMValTool Branch:

• ESMValTool-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: ar6_chapter_3

ESMValCore Branch:

• ESMValCore-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: fix_cmip6_models_newcore

Recipe & diagnostics:

Recipe used: recipes/ipccwg1ar6ch3/recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3_modes.yml

Diagnostic used: diag_scripts/ipccwg1ar6ch3_modes/amv.ncl

Expected image path:

• recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3_modes_YYYYMMDD_HHMMSS/plots/pdv-amv/amv/amv.pdf

Software description:

• ESMValTool environment file: IPCC_environments/esmvaltool_ar6_yu_conda_environment.yml
• pip file: IPCC_environments/esmvaltool_ar6_yu_pip_environment.txt

Hardware description:

Machine used: avocado.atmos.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp