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lecture 1 slides updates
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avehtari committed Sep 2, 2024
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Binary file modified slides/BDA_lecture_1a.pdf
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19 changes: 15 additions & 4 deletions slides/BDA_lecture_1a.tex
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\item Book: Gelman, Carlin, Stern, Dunson, Vehtari \& Rubin: Bayesian Data
Analysis, Third Edition. {\footnotesize (online pdf available)}
\item The course website has more detailed information\\
{\small\url{https://avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_Aalto/Aalto2023.html}}
{\small\url{https://avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_Aalto/Aalto2024.html}}
\item Timetable: see the course website
\item TAs: David Kohns, Mélanie Guhl, Noa Kallioinen, Anna Riha, Varun Shanmugam, Maksim Sinelnikov, Teemu
Säilynoja
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improve and iterate
\end{minipage}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Bayesian Workflow}


\vspace{\baselineskip}
\hspace{1cm} \begin{minipage}[t]{0.8\linewidth}
All the pieces put together
\end{minipage}


\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Probabilistic programming and Stan}

Stan is a probabilistic programming framework and ecosystem

40+ developers, 100+ contributors, 100K+ users
40+ developers, 100+ contributors, 200K+ users

\center
\vspace{\baselineskip}
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\item uncertainty is presented with probabilities
\item probabilities are updated based on new information
\end{itemize}
\pause
\item Thomas Bayes (170?--1761)
\begin{itemize}
\item English nonconformist, Presbyterian minister,
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\item Modern Bayesian theory with rigorous proofs developed in
20th century
\pause
\item A nice book about history: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne,
\item A nice book about history: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne,\\
\textit{The Theory That Would Not Die}, 2012.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
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\item[-] continuous probability distribution
\item[-] cumulative distribution function (cdf)
\item[-] likelihood
\item[-] Bayes rule
\end{itemize}

\end{frame}
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38 changes: 21 additions & 17 deletions slides/BDA_lecture_1b.tex
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\begin{itemize}
\item No lecture on 9th September as I and most TAs are in StanCon conference
\item Yes lecture on 14th October although it is evaluation week
\item No lecture on 24th October as I'm away
\item No lecture on 24th October
\item Project presentations on week starting 9th December
\end{itemize}

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\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Bayesian data analysis} %
\framesubtitle{Assessment}
\begin{itemize}
\item Assignments 40\%, e-exam 10\%, and project work and presentation 40\%
\begin{itemize}
\item Minimum of 50\% of points must be obtained from each
\end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}
\item Assignments 40\%
\item E-exam 10\%
\item Project work and presentation 50\%\\~
\item Minimum of 50\% of points must be obtained from each
\end{itemize}

\end{frame}

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\begin{itemize}
\item Weekly assignments (some have two weeks time)
\begin{itemize}
\item R (Python) simulation assignments
\item Stan probabilistic programming assignments (via R (Python))
\item R simulation assignments
\item Stan probabilistic programming assignments (via R)
\end{itemize}
\item Related R (Python) demos available (see the course web site)
\item Related R demos available (see the course web site)
\item TAs available: the web page for TA session times
\item Assignment deadlines on Sunday (see detailed info in the course web page)
\begin{itemize}
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working on weekdays
\end{itemize}
\item Submit assignment answers via MyCourses Quizzes
\begin{itemize}
\item autosubmission of Quiz answers at the deadline time
\end{itemize}
\item For some later assignments submit also a report in FeedbackFruits
% \item After the assignment deadline, the grading period Monday--Tuesday
% \item Students grade 3 other assignments using peergrade.io
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\item We use R in the course as there are more packages for Stan and
statistical analysis in general in R
\begin{itemize}
\item this will make specifically the later part of the course easier
\item this will make specifically it easier to work with
hierarchical models in the later part of the course
\end{itemize}
\end{itemize}

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\begin{itemize}
\item All exam questions picked from the assignment questions
\item No programming tasks
\item Choose your own time to take the e-exam from 18 November to 13
December
\item Choose your own time to take the e-exam %from 18 November to 13 December
\end{itemize}

\end{frame}
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\item Project work in groups of 1--3
\begin{itemize}
\item combines all the pieces learned in one project work
\item R notebook / Quarto report
\item Quarto notebook report
\item project report peer graded (30\% of the project score)
\item oral presentation graded by me and TAs (70\% of the project score)
\end{itemize}
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\begin{frame}

\frametitle{Zulip chat} %
\framesubtitle{bda2024.zulip.cs.aalto.fi}
\framesubtitle{bda2024.zulip.aalto.fi}

\begin{itemize}
\item Aalto login, hosted by Aalto IT, deleted after one year
\item The web interface is better, but the mobile app has gained
push notifications, too
\item The web interface is better\\ (the mobile app has push
notifications capability, but Aalto has not enabled it in Aalto
server)
\item Different streams for announcements, general, assignments, etc.
\end{itemize}

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