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refactor: update introduction
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baggiponte committed Dec 5, 2023
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Expand Up @@ -16,7 +16,6 @@ a **next-generation ML forecasting library**
๐Ÿ‘ค Luca Baggi
๐Ÿ’ผ ML Engineer @xtream
๐Ÿ› ๏ธ Maintainer @functime

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Expand All @@ -32,7 +31,7 @@ a **next-generation ML forecasting library**

### ๐Ÿ”ฎ The problem with forecasting

### ๐Ÿปโ€โ„๏ธ What is Polars?
### ๐Ÿ“ˆ `functime`'s answer

### ๐Ÿš€ Why is Polars so fast?

Expand All @@ -52,41 +51,48 @@ a **next-generation ML forecasting library**
# ๐Ÿ”ฎ The problem with forecasting
A new paradigm to evaluate the forecasting process

<v-clicks>

*We spend far too many resources generating, reviewing, adjusting, and approving our forecasts, while almost **invariably failing to achieve the level of accuracy desired**. The evidence now shows that a large proportion of typical business forecasting efforts fail to improve the forecast, or even make it worse. So the conversation needs to change. The focus needs to change.*
*"We spend far too many resources generating, reviewing, adjusting, and approving our forecasts, while almost **invariably failing to achieve the level of accuracy desired**."* <a href="https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/2016/10/25/changing-the-paradigm-for-business-forecasting-part-10/"><i>(source)</i></a>

*We need to **shift our attention from esoteric model building to the forecasting process itself โ€“ its efficiency and its effectiveness**.*
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<a href="https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/2016/10/25/changing-the-paradigm-for-business-forecasting-part-10/">Mike Gilliland</a>
<br>
Mike Gilliland<br>
Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters
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</v-clicks>
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# ๐Ÿ”ฎ The problem with forecasting
A new paradigm to evaluate the forecasting process

*"The focus needs to change. We need to shift our attention **from esoteric model building to the forecasting process itself** โ€“ its **efficiency** and its **effectiveness**."* <a href="https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/2016/10/25/changing-the-paradigm-for-business-forecasting-part-10/"><i>(source)</i></a>

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Mike Gilliland<br>
Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters
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# ๐Ÿ“ˆ `functime`'s answer
Reframe the problem

Make forecasting just work at a **reasonable scale** (~90% of use cases):
Make forecasting just work at a **reasonable scale** (~90% of use cases).

<v-clicks>

1. Forecast **thousands of time series** without distributed systems (PySpark).
2. Provide adequate **diagnostic tools**.
2. Smoothly translate form experimentation to production.
2. **Feature-engineering** and **diagnostics** API compatible with panel datasets.
3. Smoothly translate form experimentation to production.
</v-clicks>

<v-click>

๐Ÿซข Spoiler alert: we used Polars and global forecasting

This can be achieved with two ingredients: **Polars** and **global forecasting**.
</v-click>

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