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# Cafélytics | ||
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## Backstory | ||
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In 2012 Michael Pilosov traveled to a coffee cooperative in Guatemala as a volunteer. | ||
For his volunteer project, he decided to apply his mathematical and coding abilities to analyze strategies for the co-op’s agricultural development. | ||
He discovered the data that had been collected by co-op over the years was sparse, containing only very basic information about land ownership and species planted. | ||
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Michael did what he could despite the lack of data--he developed a model that projected a general trend of future yields cooperative-wide, using information gathered from conversations. | ||
Equipped with a model, he discovered that, despite a bright forecast for growth in the coming years, the co-op was not on track to sustain consistent harvests in the long-term. | ||
The current operational state of the co-op (assuming no additional acquisitions of land) depicted large dips in harvest yields. | ||
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These stemmed from the cyclic nature of the coffee tree itself. | ||
Since they were planted at the same time, many trees would deteriorate and require replanting simultaneously. | ||
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Consequently, the rapid growth of the cooperative would come back to plague them in the form of rapid decline. | ||
This posed a serious threat on a medium-term timeline, potentially leading to a complete restructuring of existing arrangements for coffee beans. | ||
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Michael engaged with the managers to discuss possible strategies to address year-over-year variation in the yields on the horizon. | ||
It was necessary for the co-op to execute decisions that would level these production trends to ensure the long-term sustainability of the cooperative. | ||
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The model could be used to simulate every idea that was proposed (e.g. land investment, tree intercropping, etc.); many scenarios could be played out in search of a feasible strategy to address the looming threats. | ||
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Sustainability and longevity were the primary operating goals, so an ideal strategy would result in a relatively “flat” yield projection, with perhaps a gentle positive slope. | ||
In order to stabilize the cooperative’s future yields, a solution had to be implemented that would mitigate harvest declines without requiring significant capital intervention. | ||
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Small amounts of land would need to be purchased to supplement the co-op’s present yield trends. | ||
Optimal purchase intervals were assessed, but some intervals of expansion exasperated the sustainability problems. | ||
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Thus, an optimal purchase interval would need to be elected. | ||
Simultaneously, it would be necessary for some portion of farmers (or plots) to prematurely upheave healthy trees in the peak of their fruiting maturity. | ||
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Before their trees entered the final phase and began to produce lower yields, while still at full-capacity, they would need to be cut down and seedlings planted in their place. | ||
According to the simulation, about one-third of existing candidate plots would have to be sacrificed for the greater good. | ||
This action (in accordance with well-timed land purchases), would keep the cooperative’s yields in a range that allowed them to meet contracts consistently for decades to come. | ||
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--- | ||
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This code was originally written for Matlab but has since been edited to work with Octave. | ||
The original scripts were used to build up a demonstration notebook (this document) to tell a brief version of the story behind the code and the findings from the study. | ||
Help is available using the `%help` magic or using `?` with a command. |