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JohnHalleyGotway committed Feb 25, 2021
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Expand Up @@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ Often, the goal of ensemble forecasting is to reproduce the distribution of obse

The relative position (RELP) is a count of the number of times each ensemble member is closest to the observation. For stochastic or randomly derived ensembles, this statistic is meaningless. For specified ensemble members, however, it can assist users in determining if any ensemble member is performing consistently better or worse than the others.

The ranked probability score (RPS) is included in the Ranked Probability Score (RPS) line type. It is the mean of the Brier scores computed from ensemble probabilities derived for each probability category threshold (prob_cat_thresh) specified in the configuration file. The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is the average the distance between the forecast (ensemble) cumulative distribution function and the observation cumulative distribution function. It is an analog of the Brier score, but for continuous forecast and observation fields. The CRPS statistic is computed using two methods: assuming a normal distribution defined by the ensemble mean and spread (:ref:`Gneiting et al., 2004 <Gneiting-2004>`) and using the empirical ensemble distribution (:ref:`Hersbach, 2000 <Hersbach-2000>`). The CRPS statistic is included in the Ensemble Continuous Statistics (ECNT) line type, along with other statistics quantifying the ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill.
The ranked probability score (RPS) is included in the Ranked Probability Score (RPS) line type. It is the mean of the Brier scores computed from ensemble probabilities derived for each probability category threshold (prob_cat_thresh) specified in the configuration file. The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is the average the distance between the forecast (ensemble) cumulative distribution function and the observation cumulative distribution function. It is an analog of the Brier score, but for continuous forecast and observation fields. The CRPS statistic is computed using two methods: assuming a normal distribution defined by the ensemble mean and spread (:ref:`Gneiting et al., 2004 <Gneiting-2004>`) and using the empirical ensemble distribution (:ref:`Hersbach, 2000 <Hersbach-2000>`). The CRPS statistic is included in the Ensemble Continuous Statistics (ECNT) line type, along with other statistics quantifying the ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill.

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