Construct Breakdown
The Construct Breakdown is an estimation model used for zones without any real-time data, and without granular (hourly) and up to date data. Typically, zones for which this model is applied only have monthly or yearly aggregates lagged by at least a few months to more than a year. These zones also show very little variable production modes (wind, solar, hydro etc) integration.
The model is simple, a total hourly production is first estimated with a simple model, calibrated to match the aggregates available. That total production is then broken down into a production mix using a static breakdown estimated from historical aggregates.
The diagram below details the inner workings of the Construct Breakdown model.
Figure 1: Schematic view of the Construct Breakdown
The only data sources needed are high level aggregated mixes to calibrate the inner models (total production and static breakdown)