周易、易经、算卜、秦彩庄

清史与复兴公元前秦史

咱们秦人（英译：Chinese）在清末时期，从祖国（目前的东亚秦国——中国，英译：China）飘洋过海到东南亚南洋或星洲。公元一九四九己丑年国共（中国国民党与中国共产党）内战时期，海外华人公会建党、家慈出生、中国共产党建国。 郜国

• 「文派」《赢家黄氏江夏堂》 – 始祖赢政ξηg Tεηg·黄永春家谱

第一篇、秦彩庄

第一章、福彩三码分析

第一章第二节、介绍

彩票市场在中国内地甚至全球的市场占有份额日益增加，越来越多赌徒热爱购买彩票。今天愚生尝试分析随机内地彩票---福彩3D为数据，分析是否可能从中获利。

第一章第三节、读取数据

福彩三码：直选走势数据从2016158期至2017158期，一共有360个观测数据。该福彩类型规则乃预测3个随机数字，从000至999。

第一章第四节、数学模式

• kfoots：kfoots程序包使用马克夫链，举例此期开彩010，该模式将分析及预测每当开彩该成绩后的下一个成绩（状态的转换率）的机率
• PoisNor：PoisNor程序包提供多随机变量产生器及相关系数分析
• poilog：poilog程序包分析双变量泊松模式
• mvrpois：mvrpois程序包分析多变量泊松模式

在此，愚生使用mvrpois多变量泊松模式分析仨变量泊松三码彩票数据，有关详情请查阅Dimitris Karlis and Loukia Meligkotsidou (2005)^[7.3 参考文献中的4th文献]和Dimitris Karlis (2002)^[7.3 参考文献中的3rd文献]。

$$(X_{1},X_{2},X_{3}){i} ~ 3 - Pois(\theta{1i},\theta_{2i},\theta_{3i},\theta_{12i},\theta_{13i},\theta_{23i}) \dots equation\ 3.1$$

• $log(\theta_{1i}) = \alpha_{1} + \beta_{1}z_{i}$
• $log(\theta_{2i}) = \alpha_{2} + \beta_{2}z_{i}$
• $log(\theta_{3i}) = \alpha_{3} + \beta_{3}z_{i}$
• $log(\theta_{12i}) = \alpha_{4} + \beta_{4}z_{i}$
• $log(\theta_{13i}) = \alpha_{5} + \beta_{5}z_{i}$
• $log(\theta_{23i}) = \alpha_{6} + \beta_{6}z_{i}$

联合分布函数将为：

$$P(X = x) = \sum_{(y_{12},y_{13},y_{23})\in C}\frac{exp(-\sum\theta_{i})\theta_{1}^{x_{1}-y_{12}-y_{13}}\theta_{2}^{x_{2}-y_{12}-y_{23}}\theta_{3}^{x_{3}-y_{13}-y_{23}}\theta_{12}^{y_{12}}\theta_{13}^{y_{13}}\theta_{23}^{y_{23}}}{(x_{1}-y_{12}-y{13})!(x_{2}-y_{12}-y{23})!(x_{3}-y_{13}-y{23})!y_{12}!y_{13}!y_{23}!} \dots equation\ 3.2$$ 而 $C \subset N^3$ 设为：

$$C = (y_{12},y_{13},y_{23}) \in N^3 : {y_{12}+y_{13}\leq x_{1}} \cup {y_{12}+y_{23}\leq x_{2}} \cup {y_{13}+y_{23}\leq x_{3}} \neq \theta$$

多元泊松尤物参考文献：

• Can a Multivariate Poisson Distribution be implemented in Stan?
• n-mixture model in Stan? marginalizing
• karlis-ntzoufras-reproduction/model.stan
• Reproductions of models for football (soccer) matches in Stan/PyStan^[So far, the following models have been implemented:] ^[1) Maher (1982) - Modelling Association Football Scores - maher] ^[2) Dixon and Coles (1997) - Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market - dixon-coles] ^[3)Karlis and Ntzoufras (2008) - Bayesian modelling of football outcomes (using the Skellam's distribution) - karlis-ntzoufras]

第一章第五节、投注模式

由于凯利投资模式，在此使用该模式。有关凯利模式投注，请参阅：

• Application of Kelly Criterion model in Sportsbook Investment
• Job Application - Quantitative Analyst (binary.com)

第一章第六节、盈利

第一章第七节、结论

第一章第八节、附录

第一章第八节第一子章节、文献明细

It's useful to record some information about how your file was created.

• File creation date: 2017-06-15
• File latest updated date: r Sys.Date()
• r R.version.string
• R version (short form): r getRversion()
• rmarkdown package version: r packageVersion('rmarkdown')
• tint package version: r packageVersion('tint')
• File version: 1.0.0
• Author Profile: ®γσ, Eng Lian Hu
• GitHub: Source Code
• Additional session information

第一章第八节第二子章节、版本

• 文献版本: 1.0.0 - "2017-06-15 20:47:50 JST"

7.3 参考文献

1. Bayesian Multivariate Poisson Regression for Models of Injury Count, by Severity by Jianming Ma and Kara M. Kockelman (2006)
2. FlexMix - An R package for finite mixture modelling by Bettina Grun and Friedrich Leisch (2007)
3. Multivariate Poisson Models by Dimitris Karlis (2002)
4. Multivariate Poisson Regression with Covariance Structure (Preview) by Dimitris Karlis and Loukia Meligkotsidou (2005)
5. Package 'poilog' by Vidar Grøtan and Steinar Engen (2015)
6. Resampling Methods for Longitudinal Data Analysis by Yue Li (2005)

7.4 感言

第二篇、海外秦彩庄