Always predict for status quo features trial index (#2810)

Summary:

Previously we had plots that looked like {F1904605463}
After the same plot looks like
{F1904608806}

Differential Revision: D63715134

ax/analysis/plotly/predicted_effects.py

@@ -117,12 +117,18 @@ def _get_predictions(
     metric_name: str,
     outcome_constraints: list[OutcomeConstraint],
     gr: Optional[GeneratorRun] = None,
-    trial_index: Optional[int] = None,
 ) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
+    trial_index = (
+        _get_max_observed_trial_index(model)
+        if model.status_quo is None
+        else model.status_quo.features.trial_index
+    )
     if gr is None:
         observations = model.get_training_data()
         features = [o.features for o in observations]
         arm_names = [o.arm_name for o in observations]
+        for feature in features:
+            feature.trial_index = trial_index
     else:
         features = [
             ObservationFeatures(parameters=arm.parameters, trial_index=trial_index)
@@ -244,7 +250,6 @@ def _prepare_data(
                                 metric_name=metric_name,
                                 outcome_constraints=outcome_constraints,
                                 gr=gr,
-                                trial_index=trial_index,
                             )
                             for gr in candidate_trial.generator_runs
                         ]

ax/analysis/plotly/tests/test_predicted_effects.py

@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@
 from ax.modelbridge.generation_node import GenerationNode
 from ax.modelbridge.generation_strategy import GenerationStrategy
 from ax.modelbridge.model_spec import ModelSpec
+from ax.modelbridge.prediction_utils import predict_at_point
 from ax.modelbridge.registry import Models
 from ax.modelbridge.transition_criterion import MaxTrials
 from ax.utils.common.testutils import TestCase
@@ -123,18 +124,25 @@ def test_compute(self) -> None:
         ]
         experiment.add_tracking_metric(get_branin_metric(name="tracking_branin"))
         generation_strategy = self.generation_strategy
+        generation_strategy.experiment = experiment
         experiment.new_batch_trial(
-            generator_run=generation_strategy.gen(experiment=experiment, n=10)
+            generator_runs=generation_strategy.gen_with_multiple_nodes(
+                experiment=experiment, n=10
+            )
         ).set_status_quo_with_weight(
             status_quo=experiment.status_quo, weight=1.0
         ).mark_completed(
             unsafe=True
         )
         experiment.fetch_data()
         experiment.new_batch_trial(
-            generator_run=generation_strategy.gen(experiment=experiment, n=10)
+            generator_runs=generation_strategy.gen_with_multiple_nodes(
+                experiment=experiment, n=10
+            )
         ).set_status_quo_with_weight(status_quo=experiment.status_quo, weight=1.0)
         experiment.fetch_data()
+        # Ensure the current model is Botorch
+        self.assertEqual(none_throws(generation_strategy.model)._model_key, "BoTorch")
         for metric in experiment.metrics:
             with self.subTest(metric=metric):
                 # WHEN we compute the analysis for a metric
@@ -186,15 +194,23 @@ def test_compute(self) -> None:
     @fast_botorch_optimize
     def test_compute_multitask(self) -> None:
         # GIVEN an experiment with candidates generated with a multitask model
-        experiment = get_branin_experiment()
+        experiment = get_branin_experiment(with_status_quo=True)
         generation_strategy = self.generation_strategy
         experiment.new_batch_trial(
             generator_run=generation_strategy.gen(experiment=experiment, n=10)
-        ).mark_completed(unsafe=True)
+        ).set_status_quo_with_weight(
+            status_quo=experiment.status_quo, weight=1
+        ).mark_completed(
+            unsafe=True
+        )
         experiment.fetch_data()
         experiment.new_batch_trial(
             generator_run=generation_strategy.gen(experiment=experiment, n=10)
-        ).mark_completed(unsafe=True)
+        ).set_status_quo_with_weight(
+            status_quo=experiment.status_quo, weight=1
+        ).mark_completed(
+            unsafe=True
+        )
         experiment.fetch_data()
         # leave as a candidate
         experiment.new_batch_trial(
@@ -203,20 +219,24 @@ def test_compute_multitask(self) -> None:
                 n=10,
                 fixed_features=ObservationFeatures(parameters={}, trial_index=1),
             )
-        )
+        ).set_status_quo_with_weight(status_quo=experiment.status_quo, weight=1)
         experiment.new_batch_trial(
             generator_run=generation_strategy.gen(
                 experiment=experiment,
                 n=10,
                 fixed_features=ObservationFeatures(parameters={}, trial_index=1),
             )
-        )
+        ).set_status_quo_with_weight(status_quo=experiment.status_quo, weight=1)
         self.assertEqual(none_throws(generation_strategy.model)._model_key, "ST_MTGP")
         # WHEN we compute the analysis
         analysis = PredictedEffectsPlot(metric_name="branin")
-        card = analysis.compute(
-            experiment=experiment, generation_strategy=generation_strategy
-        )
+        with patch(
+            f"{PredictedEffectsPlot.__module__}.predict_at_point",
+            wraps=predict_at_point,
+        ) as predict_at_point_spy:
+            card = analysis.compute(
+                experiment=experiment, generation_strategy=generation_strategy
+            )
         # THEN it has the right rows for arms with data, as well as the latest trial
         arms_with_data = set(experiment.lookup_data().df["arm_name"].unique())
         max_trial_index = max(experiment.trials.keys())
@@ -235,6 +255,16 @@ def test_compute_multitask(self) -> None:
                         or arm.name in experiment.trials[max_trial_index].arms_by_name,
                         arm.name,
                     )
+        # AND THEN it always predicts for the target trial
+        self.assertEqual(
+            len(
+                {
+                    call[1]["obsf"].trial_index
+                    for call in predict_at_point_spy.call_args_list
+                }
+            ),
+            1,
+        )
 
     @fast_botorch_optimize
     def test_it_does_not_plot_abandoned_trials(self) -> None: