Fixed Broadband Coverage Analysis (2019 - 2023)

Table of Content

1. Project Background
2. Executive Summary
3. Data Sources and Methodology
   • Data Sources
   • Limitations
   • Key Columns in the Dataset
   • Methodology
4. Insights Deep Dive
   • Regional Observations
   • Broadband in Underserved Areas
   • Regional Trends
   • Broadband Type Analysis
   • Coverage Gaps
   • Observational Patterns
5. Actionable Insights
6. Recommendations
7. Assumptions and Caveats

Project Background

This project analyses fixed broadband coverage in the UK from 2019 to 2023, examining trends, regional disparities and the impact of infrastructure investments. Key metrics include:

• Superfast Broadband (SFBB)
• Ultrafast Broadband (UFBB)
• Full Fibre
• Gigabit broadband coverage.

This study aims to uncover patterns and gaps in broadband accessibility, contributing to efforts to bridge the digital divide.

Executive Summary

Overview of Findings

National Trends:

• Broadband availability across the UK has improved significantly between 2019 and 2023.
• SFBB coverage grew from 93.62% in 2019 to 96.07% in 2023.
• UFBB availability grew significantly from 47% to 70% over five years.
• Full Fibre availability experienced a sharp increase, rising from 8.59% to 47.6%.
• Gigabit broadband availability showed the most dramatic growth, increasing from 8.5% to nearly 70%, reflecting policy-driven investment.
• Premises below USO declined substantially, reflecting improvements in access to basic broadband speeds.

Regional Disparities:

• Urban areas generally have higher broadband speeds and availability. Urban areas like Birmingham and Leeds excelled in USO compliance.
• Rural areas, especially the Orkney and Shetland Islands, show significant gaps in coverage.
• Areas like Kingston upon Hull and Convetry lead in Full Fibre and Gigabit coverage.
• Rural and island regions such as Orkney Islands and Isles of Scilly remain underserved, with minimal Full Fibre and Gigabit access.
• Brighton, despite its small geographic size, demonstrated superior broadband coverage.

Underserved Communities:

• Orkney Islands: SFBB availability improved from 65% in 2019 to 68.5% in 2023, highlighting slow progress.
• Premises below USO thresholds decreased significantly across all regions after 2020.
• Durham, Cornwall, and Buckinghamshire showed lower broadband coverage rates compared to urban counterparts.

Urban vs Rural Divide:

• Urban areas such as Brighton benefit from concentrated infrastructure investments, while rural counterparts like Lewes lag significantly.

Case Studies:

• Aberdeen City: Full Fibre availability surged 6.5 times, from 16,410 in 2019 to 107,315 in 2023.
• York: Showed a more modest increase of 1.47 times in Full Fibre availability and a decline in matched premises by 1,966.

Data Sources and Methodology

Data Sources

The analysis is based on broadband coverage datasets provided by Ofcom, under the Open Government License v3.0. Data spans five years (2019-2023) and includes:

• Files: Yearly CSV datasets for 374 UK local authorities.
• Total Records: 1,870 data points post-cleaning and integration.
• Key Metrics: SFBB, UFBB, Full Fibre availability, and premises below Universal Service Obligation (USO).
• Providers: Data collected from over 70 fixed network and fixed wireless access (FWA) providers.
• Snapshots: Annual snapshots (e.g., September 2020, May, 2023) were used for uniform temporal analysis.

Limitations

• Changes in reporting methods, such as the inability to identify superfast broadband coverage from FWA in rececnt years, limit direct year-over-year comparisons.
• Some coverage metrics rely on provider-reported estimates, which may introduce minor innacuracies.

Key Columns in the Dataset

Column Name	Description	Relevance
laua	Local and unitary authority code	Unique identifier for regions
SFBB availability (% premises)	% of premises with broadband ≥30 Mbit/s	Indicator of baseline connectivity
UFBB availability (% premises)	% of premises with broadband ≥100 Mbit/s	Advanced connectivity measure
Full Fibre availability (% premises)	% of premises with full fibre broadband coverage	Infrastructure modernization metric
Premises below USO	% of premises below 10Mbit/s download speed	Highlights underserved areas

Methodology

1. Data Import and Cleaning

• Imported data from CSV files using Python's Pandas.
• Cleaned inconsistent column names and ambiguous data using custom Python scripts.
• Standardised datasets across years, ensuring all included a consistent "year" column and consistent local area code throughout.
• Addressed null values, outliers, and ensured data completeness by resolving duplicates and filling gaps.
• Verified data integrity by checking for missing values and anomalies.
• Extracted targeted subsets for analysis, including Full Fibre Availability and premises below USO.

2. Storage and Structure

• Stored cleaned data in MongoDB for accessibility.

3. Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)

• Utilised Python libraries (Matplotlib, Folium) to explore trends and visualise disparities.
• Conducted grouping and aggregation to uncover temporal patterns in broadband availability.
• Investigated trends in broadband availability and gaps.
• Highlighted regional disparities through statistical summaries and visualisations.

4. Visualisation

• Developed maps to showcase regional gaps using Folium.
• Created trend charts to illustrate growth in broadband types.

Insights Deep Dive

Regional Observations:

Regional Disparities

The choropleth map visualization revealed significant regional disparities in broadband coverage, particularly in compliance with the Universal Service Obligation (USO).

• Top-Performing Areas: Urban centers such as Birmingham and Leeds demonstrated exceptionally high compliance rates, with a large proportion of premises meeting USO criteria.

• Other High-Compliance Regions: Areas such as Durham, Cornwall, Buckinghamshire, Manchester, Liverpool, Sheffield, City of Edinburgh, and Glasgow City also exhibited relatively strong broadband coverage compared to their neighbors.

• Lagging Regions: Despite overall improvements, certain rural and peripheral areas still face significant gaps in coverage, indicating a need for targeted infrastructure investments.

Dominance of Suboptimal Coverage

The choropleth map predominantly displayed pale yellow-green hues, signaling widespread inadequacies in broadband infrastructure across many regions:

• This visualization highlighted the dominance of suboptimal broadband coverage in numerous areas, emphasizing the pressing need for infrastructure upgrades to meet current and future demands.
• While some progress has been observed, the prevalence of substandard broadband availability underscores the challenges in achieving nationwide digital equity.

Urban vs. Rural Divide

The analysis further revealed a stark contrast in broadband coverage between urban and rural areas:

• Urban Success Stories: Smaller urban regions like Brighton exhibited superior broadband coverage despite their relatively limited geographic footprint.

• Rural Disparities: Adjacent rural areas, such as Lewes, showed significantly lower compliance with USO standards, reflecting a broader trend of underinvestment in rural broadband infrastructure.

• These disparities suggest a persistent gap in broadband accessibility, driven by the higher costs and logistical challenges of deploying infrastructure in less densely populated areas.

1. Top-Performing Areas:

• Kingston upon Hull: Nearly 100% coverage for Full Fibre and Gigabit broadband.
• Coventry: Demonstrated significant growth in UFBB and Gigabit broadband.

2. Least-Performing Areas:

• Isles of Scilly: Only 1.8% coverage for Full Fibre and Gigabit broadband.
• Copeland and Orkney Islands: Limited infrastructure progress, reflecting logistical challenges.

Broadband in Underserved Areas:

• Investments in rural areas remain insufficient, as demonstrated by slow growth in regions like Argyll and Bute.
• Digital inclusion policies need to prioritize these underserved communities.

Regional Trends

• Aberdeen City: Full Fibre availability surged by 6.5 times, growing from 16,410 premises in 2019 to 107,315 in 2023. Corresponding decreases were observed in premises below the Universal Service Obligation (USO) threshold, dropping nearly 5 times (189 in 2019 to 40 in 2023). This growth indicates robust infrastructure investment and a targeted effort to expand access to high-speed internet.

• York: In contrast to Aberdeen, York showed modest growth in broadband infrastructure. Full Fibre availability increased by just 1.47 times (from 43,077 premises in 2019 to 63,736 in 2023). Interestingly, York experienced a reduction in matched premises, with 1,966 fewer properties between 2019 and 2023. This may be due to urban redevelopment or shifting population dynamics.

• Orkney and Shetland Islands: These island regions lag significantly, with 16.7% and 16% of premises, respectively, unable to receive 10Mbit/s broadband speeds as of 2023. Geographical challenges such as their remote locations and higher infrastructure costs likely contribute to this disparity.

Broadband Type Analysis

• Superfast Broadband (SFBB): Nearly universal, increasing from 93.62% in 2019 to 96.07% in 2023. This modest growth reflects a mature infrastructure and focuses on improving connectivity quality rather than expanding the network. Despite high coverage, rural areas still report inconsistencies in meeting the 30Mbit/s threshold.

• Ultrafast Broadband (UFBB): Availability grew from 47% in 2019 to 70% in 2023, with the most significant annual increase (8.4%) observed between 2021 and 2022. The disparity between urban and rural areas is stark, as rural localities often struggle with cost-effective deployment.

• Ultrafast Broadband (100 Mbit/s+): One of the fastest-growing segments, jumping from an estimated 49% (inferred) in 2019 to 71.81% in 2023. Steady annual growth of approximately 5.6% indicates ongoing infrastructure upgrades, with large-scale investments aligning with government initiatives for digital inclusion.

• Gigabit Broadband: Showed exponential growth, from 8.5% in 2019 to 70% in 2023—a **62%**increase over five years. Significant increases in 2021 and 2022 (26.37% in one year) underscore the pandemic-driven urgency to upgrade networks to meet surging demand for remote work and education.

• Full Fibre Availability: A parallel growth to Gigabit broadband was observed, with availability increasing from 8.59% in 2019 to 47.6% in 2023. Full Fibre's increasing importance is evident in its role as the backbone for Gigabit-capable networks.

Coverage Gaps

• Premises Below USO: The percentage of premises unable to receive broadband speeds below 2Mbit/s, 5Mbit/s, and 10Mbit/s has steadily declined over the years. Premises below the 10Mbit/s threshold decreased from 2.1% in 2019 to 1.24% in 2023, highlighting ongoing progress but leaving notable gaps in underserved regions.

• Islands and Remote Regions: Island regions such as Orkney and Shetland face persistent challenges, with logistical and financial barriers to deploying high-speed broadband. These areas also report limited Full Fibre and Gigabit availability, reflecting infrastructure disparities.

Observational Patterns

• Pandemic-Driven Trends: The sharpest increases in high-speed broadband availability (e.g., Full Fibre and Gigabit) occurred between 2020 and 2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Factors contributing to this surge include remote work and education demands; reduced road traffic, facilitating quicker infrastructure deployments.

• Urban vs Rural Divide: Urban areas consistently exhibit higher broadband availability due to cost-efficient infrastructure deployment. Rural areas, particularly in Scotland and Wales, lag significantly, underlining the need for targeted investments.

• Policy Impacts: Initiatives such as the Universal Service Obligation (USO), launched in 2020, correlate with increased focus on underserved areas. Legislation and funding have accelerated improvements, particularly in regions previously unable to meet basic speed thresholds.

• Geographic Influence: Coastal and island regions face higher deployment costs, resulting in slower progress and persistent disparities.

• Infrastructure Focus: nvestments are heavily concentrated in urban areas, creating significant disparities in broadband access. Rural and remote areas continue to lag behind due to logistical and financial challenges.

• Technological Trends: A clear shift toward next-generation broadband (Full Fibre and Gigabit), with slower improvements in older infrastructure like Superfast Broadband (SFBB).

Actionable Insights

1. Accelerating Rural Connectivity

Target rural and island areas (e.g., Orkney, Isles of Scilly) for prioritized funding and infrastructure investment. For example, a subsidy program for Full Fibre deployment in Orkney could reduce underserved premises by up to 16.7%.

2. Focusing on High-Growth Areas

Study and replicate deployment strategies from successful regions like Kingston upon Hull and Coventry in other urban and suburban areas with medium coverage levels (e.g., York or Aberdeen).

3. Leveraging Public-Private Partnerships

Expand partnerships, especially in regions with <30% coverage. Incentivize private providers with grants to invest in hard-to-reach areas, ensuring effective collaboration and resource allocation.

4. Closing the Digital Divide

Introduce a phased investment plan to eliminate USO gaps by 2025. This should focus on ensuring that even the most underserved premises meet the 10Mbit/s minimum standard.

5. Tracking and Adapting

Implement a centralized, real-time monitoring system for broadband metrics at the local authority level. This will help identify underperforming regions and allow for swift, data-driven responses.

6. Pandemic Lessons for Rapid Deployment

Build on the infrastructure growth momentum observed during the pandemic by scheduling large-scale infrastructure projects during periods of minimal urban activity (e.g., holidays).

Recomendations

• Infrastructure Investments: Prioritize underserved regions, particularly rural and island communities, to reduce digital inequality. Expand Full Fibre and Gigabit coverage to align with urban availability levels.

• Policy Initiatives: Incentivize broadband providers to target remote areas with subsidies or public-private partnerships for high-cost infrastructure projects. Introduce ambitious regional targets for UFBB and Gigabit broadband to bridge the digital divide.

• Monitoring and Reporting: Establish regular updates to track progress and assess policy effectiveness. Enhance data granularity to understand local challenges better and refine strategies accordingly.

• Targeted Investments: Encourage private companies to expand infrastructure in underserved regions with government incentives or subsidies. Focus on high-cost, low-coverage areas to ensure equitable broadband access.

• Future Focus: Prioritize underserved regions to ensure equitable access to next-generation broadband. Expand public-private partnerships to accelerate infrastructure deployment and achieve nationwide digital equity.

Assumptions and Caveats

• Data Accuracy: Some data points, particularly from earlier years, rely on estimations (e.g., UFBB availability in 2019).

• Urban vs. Rural Bias: The analysis highlights that urban areas often show higher coverage due to cost-efficient infrastructure deployment.

• Limitations of Percentage Metrics: While percentages normalize data for comparison, they may mask absolute disparities in larger or denser regions.

• External Influences: Urban redevelopment and demographic shifts (e.g., York) may impact broadband coverage trends.

• Policy Impacts: Changes in legislation (e.g., USO launch in 2020) influence trends but may not reflect immediate infrastructure changes.