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Incorporate Michael's suggestions in appendix
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romain-ragonnet committed Sep 14, 2023
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\section{Model description}

\subsection{General approach}
We use a semi-mechanistic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs).
We use a semi-mechanistic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to
simulate country-specific COVID-19 epidemics during the first three years of the pandemic (2020-2022).
Our model captures important factors of COVID-19 transmission and disease such as age-specific characteristics,
heterogeneous mixing, vaccination and the emergence of different variants of concern.
The ODE-based model is used to capture only states relevant to transmission, whereas hospitalisations and deaths are
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion docs/tex/tex_descriptions/models/sm_covid/odes.tex
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the average duration of active disease is denoted $w$. The relative susceptibility to infection with strain $s$ of individuals aged $a$ with
vaccination status $v$ is denoted $\rho_{a,v,s}$. The term $b_{a,v,s}(t)$ designates the introduction of individuals of age $a$ and
with vaccination status $v$ that are infected with strain $s$ (infection seeding). Vaccination is characterised by the age-specific
and time-variant per-capita vaccination rate $w_a$. Finally, $\chi_{s,\sigma}$ represents the relative susceptibility to infection
and time-variant per-capita vaccination rate $\omega_a$. Finally, $\chi_{s,\sigma}$ represents the relative susceptibility to infection
with strain $\sigma$ for individuals whose most recent infection episode was with strain $s$. Using this new notation combined
with those previously introduced, we can describe the model with the following set of ordinary differential equations:

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are allocated. Note that in the event that the population-level vaccine coverage exceeds 80\%, the saturation coverage was set equal to the population-level coverage.

Let us consider two successive time points $t_i$ and $t_{i+1}$ for which vaccination data are available. Let us denote $r_{a, i}$ and $r_{a, i+1}$ the associated vaccine
coverage for age group $a$. The time-variant and age-specific vaccination rate per capita $w_a(t)$ verifies:
coverage for age group $a$. The time-variant and age-specific vaccination rate per capita $\omega_a(t)$ verifies:

\begin{equation}
1 - r_{a, i+1} = (1 - r_{a, i})e^{-w_a(t)(t_{i+1} - t_i)} \quad, \forall t \in [t_i, t_{i+1}) .
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Then,
\begin{equation}
\label{eq:vacc}
w_a(t) = \frac{\ln(1 - r_{a, i}) - \ln(1 - r_{a, i+1})}{t_{i+1} - t_i} \quad, \forall t \in [t_i, t_{i+1}) ,
\omega_a(t) = \frac{\ln(1 - r_{a, i}) - \ln(1 - r_{a, i+1})}{t_{i+1} - t_i} \quad, \forall t \in [t_i, t_{i+1}) ,
\end{equation}
where $\ln(x)$ represents the natural logarithm of $x$.

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