Nowadays, the COVID-19 pandemic pushed scientists from several countries to investigate/develop vaccines. Many countries, such as China, UK, India and US, are in a race to develop trustable vaccines, indicating high efficiencies.
Marcus Duarte - 20/11/2020
Data Scientist
mvcduarte at gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcus-duarte-478bab81/
Recently, some health companies pointed out that their vaccines (e.g. Oxford, Sinovac, Pfizer and BioNtech) presented efficienty of ~90%-95% in premilinary results, being quite promissing! It means the rate of people who got the vaccine and got immunized by COVID-19 is around 95%, much higher than expected by WHO (World Health Organization).
Our study aim to evaluate how reliable those numbers are and calculate a probability that, base on those numbers, the vaccines fail. The PyMC3 package will be used to employ the MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) technique and define probabilities.