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Stochastic-Shortest-Path-Minimize-Memorization-Cost for FSRS

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SSP-MMC-FSRS

Introduction

SSP-MMC-FSRS is an extended verson of SSP-MMC, which is an algorithm for minimizing the memorization cost in spaced repetiton. The core hypothesis of SSP-MMC is the learner will memorize a card forever when the stability exceeds a certain threshold. With this hypothesis, and the memory state-transition function (provided by FSRS), we can formulate the problem as a special case of the Markov Decision Process (MDP), i.e., a stochastic shortest path problem.

Results

  • Scheduling Policy: how the intervals are calculated. When SSP-MMC is used, the intervals are chosen so that the "cost" (in minutes of studying) is minimized. When a fixed value of desired retention is used, the intervals correspond to the desired probability of recall.
  • Average number of minutes per day: same as above, but minutes of studying are used instead. Lower is better.
  • Total knowledge at the end: the sum of probabilities of recall of all reviewed cards by the end of the simulation. It cannot be greater than the deck size. Higher is better.
  • Knowledge per minute: a measure of learning efficiency. Higher is better.

Deck size = 10,000 cards. The best result is highlited in bold.

Duration of the simulation = 365 days

Schedulling Policy Average number of reviews per day Average number of minutes per day Total knowledge at the end Knowledge per minute
SSP-MMC 173.4 43.2 9473 219
DR=0.70 111.6 42.7 8493 199
DR=0.73 119.2 42.6 8734 205
DR=0.76 125.8 41.7 8850 212
DR=0.79 132.9 40.8 8968 220
DR=0.82 147.1 41.3 9217 223
DR=0.85 164.2 42.4 9289 219
DR=0.88 188.9 44.1 9440 214
DR=0.91 229.5 48.0 9588 200
DR=0.94 300.7 55.4 9702 175
DR=0.97 523.6 83.8 9854 118

Duration of the simulation = 3650 days

Schedulling Policy Average number of reviews per day Average number of minutes per day Total knowledge at the end Knowledge per minute
SSP-MMC 39.0 10.1 9831 976
DR=0.70 31.3 12.0 8748 731
DR=0.73 32.6 11.6 8963 770
DR=0.76 34.0 11.2 9198 818
DR=0.79 35.9 11.0 9383 855
DR=0.82 39.0 10.9 9558 874
DR=0.85 42.5 10.9 9693 892
DR=0.88 47.2 10.8 9806 905
DR=0.91 55.3 11.3 9893 876
DR=0.94 69.3 12.4 9955 802
DR=0.97 115.4 18.0 9989 556

SSP-MMC performs better over longer periods of time.