EpiCardio

Author: Jose Alejandro Avila Cabreja

EpiCardio is a shiny app built using the R language, which allows you to visualise trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Cuba between 2010 and 2020. Data are categorised by age, sex, specific cause and province. This is a purely informative tool and is not intended to replace the official means of dissemination of the Ministry of Public Health.

Data source

The data were extracted from health statistical yearbooks published between 2011 and 2021. These can be consulted on the Virtual Health Library web page.

Methodology

All information was extracted directly from health statistical yearbooks and entered into a database created in MS Excel for further management and validation.

The crude mortality rate (CMR) was calculated using the following formula:

$$CRM = \dfrac{TD}{TP} *100 000$$

where:

• TD: Total deaths
• TP: Total population

The annualised rate of change (ARC) was calculated using the following formula:

$$ARC = \dfrac{log(MRs) - log(MRe)}{I} *100$$

where:

• MRs: Mortality rate at the start of the time interval
• MRe: Mortality rate at the end of the time interval
• I: Number of year in the interval

The 95 % confidence interval was calculated for all estimates.

Predictions for the next 5 years were calculated using a Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Model.