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Warning
This is a vastly simplified model to articulate an initial benchmark extrapolation without consideration for multi-block MEV, certain additional protocol related rewards, and only using data from one day's worth of blocks to use values. A more accurate model would have sampled more than just one day's worth of block rewards.
No change in active validator set or total staked eth over the given time period
For a given validator, (its effective balance) / (total staked eth) is a good estimate of block proposal opportunity PER BLOCK. This appears to be true. (Further thoughts:) Within the ETH2 phase 0 specification, when searching for a block's proposer, a shuffled list of active validators is iterated through. Each validator's effective balance influences the chances of that validator being chosen. But, the effective balances of the other validators are important as well because if you are at shuffled position X, validator at (shuffled) index say X minus 5's chances of being chosen as also influenced by that validator's effective balance.
If a validator before you in the shuffled index is chosen, you would not be considered. In simulations, I find (its effective balance) / (total staked eth) to provide a reasonable estimate of a validator's chance of being chosen to propose any given block. If all active validators have equal (say 32 eth) effective balance, then this simplifies to 1/(total active validators). But the latter would not attempt to account for the rest of the validators' effective balance's influence directly and indirectly on a given validator's chances.
Price of ETH in USD: 1634.63
Staking Fee = 7.000000000000001 % Network Stake= 24960000
Reference Calculator: https://beaconcha.in/calculator Data used provided by: https://flashbots-data.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/index.html
2.47 MB 2023-05-08T13:36:59.000Z block-summary/daily/block_data_may_7_2023.csv
SHA256SUM: faff26b8e1132f3fc0356894a2068c127693a4e8042755ccae28ae5b849c3c22
We take a block data and extrapolate based on blocks rewards the breakdown of MEV rewards for Validators.
We break down MEV rewards into two categories:
- "Big Lottery" That is the reward probability of an amount of MEV rewards at most one a day.
- "Little Lottery" That is the reward probability of an amount of MEV Rewards with a similar probability of the total amount of validators in the staking pool's hourly probability of creating a block (i.e. proposing).
Note that one epoch has a duration of 12*32 seconds so there are: 86,400 seconds in a day 225 epochs in a day: 6750 epochs every 30 days. 7,200 Blocks Per Day
29.39% per hour 98.44% every 12 hours
3,060 Blocks per year (WCS) 2,592 (Worst that Worst Case)
Nb Validators Median Median APY Average Average APY 780,000 1.2332 3.85% 1.52 4.75%
Average occurrences: ≈ 228.43 Minimum occurrences: 188 Maximum occurrences: 271 Median occurrences: 229 WSC occurrences: 255
24960000 ≈ 20.40 % 27534119.899005
32.34268189 0.1847672284
7,113
Big Lottery Blocks = 1 a day
276 = 2.134182044 ETH 0.03888888888 % Average occurrences: ≈ 28.00 Minimum occurrences: 7 Maximum occurrences: 60 Median occurrences: 28 This means that, with this adjusted hourly probability, you can expect the event to occur about 28 times over a 30-day period, based on our simulations. The observed occurrences in the simulations ranged from a minimum of 7 to a maximum of 60.
Little Lottery Blocks = 7 a day
For Blocks with over > 0.3 ETH 2,139 Blocks 1,509 ETH Total 0.70546984572 AVG
2139 = 0.70546984572 AVG ETH 2139 per day is 0.30071699704 % Average occurrences: ≈ 216.52 Minimum occurrences: 155 Maximum occurrences: 282 Median occurrences: 216 With this adjusted hourly probability, we can expect the event to occur, on average, about 216 to 217 times over a 30-day period based on our simulations. The observed occurrences in the simulations ranged from a minimum of 155 to a maximum of 282.
~ 0.140 ETH Per Block on Average WCS-ish
| Duration | ETH Stake | ETH Reward | Return | Return in % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day | 28802.4412 ETH ($4 7081 334.51) | 2.4412 ETH ($3 990.51) | $3 206.27 | 0.01 % |
| Week | 28817.0870 ETH ($4 7105 274.88) | 17.0870 ETH ($27 930.88) | $22 441.46 | 0.05 % | | Month | 28875.6421 ETH ($4 7200 990.87) | 75.6421 ETH ($123 646.87) | $99 340.11 | 0.21 % | | Year | 29685.7724 ETH ($4 8525 254.06) | 885.7724 ETH ($1447 910.06) | $1162 314.68 | 2.47 % |
64.02546132 Monthly Big Lottery (in ETH)
148.1486676 Monthly Little Lottery (in ETH)
2,546.089547 Yearly Combined (in ETH)
4,161,914.356 USD ETH in MEV Rewards
$5,324,229.036 USD ETH in Total Rewards Per Stated Assumptions