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Coverage validity not verified in MapieRegressor when the number of calibration data is very small #452

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thibaultcordier opened this issue May 26, 2024 · 1 comment · Fixed by #453
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@thibaultcordier
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thibaultcordier commented May 26, 2024

Describe the bug
In MapieRegressor, the quantile calculation does not allow us to check the coverage validity when the number of calibration data is very small.

To Reproduce
A rigorous approach to testing the validity of the coverage was carried out by Mahdi Torabi Rad (see his notebook: https://github.com/mtorabirad/MLBoost/blob/main/Episode15/Episode15Main.ipynb) in the special case where the number of calibration data is very small (6 in the following illustration).

Expected behavior
Use the corrected quantile ($|(n+1)(1−α)|/n$) to check the validity of the coverage for any number of calibration data.

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@thibaultcordier thibaultcordier added the bug Something isn't working label May 26, 2024
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Issue #451 provides a link to the video presenting the notebook.

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