superBT-V04

a "super" Best Track (BT) for Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasting and Research

Mike Fiorino (mfiorino@gmu.edu)
30 January 2024
8 May 2024

Welcome to the 1st beta release (V04) of Mike Fiorino's superBT -- a superposition of TC-centric dynamical (ERA5 10-d forecasts) and thermodynamical (satellite precipitation analyses) data onto the operational TC position/structure BT of JTWC and NHC.

The superBT can also be considered as 'IBTRaCS ++', i.e., a TC position/structure data set with additional variables (e.g., vertical wind shear) known to be important in TC intensity/structure change.

Contents

• Versions
• TC label/numbering and Date-Time conventions
  • date-time format
  • TCs are labelled using the NNB.YYYY format where:
• Key properties of the V04 data set:
• the superBT data in the dat/ directory:
• Quick Starts and documentation
  • docs
  • install -- if you are a "just give me the links to the data" person...
  • wxmap2.com weather maps and TC NWP displays
• Contact info

Versions

• V04 : current beta version released 202401 at https://github.com/tenkiman/superBT-V04
• V10 : initial version around 202404
  • 2006-2023
  • add R34

TC label/numbering and Date-Time conventions

date-time format

The standard NWP and US Navy 'date-time-group' format is used throughout the docs and data:

YYYYMMDDHH

12 UTC 1 July 2022 would be coded as 2022070112 NB: sometimes the HH will be dropped to indicate the date only

TCs are labelled using the NNB.YYYY format where:

• NN : storm number
• B : basin code for NHEM & SHEM (mouse over for a list)
• YYYY : basin season year, NB: the SHEM season starts 1 July YYYY-1 and ends on 30 June YYYY, e.g., the 2023 SHEM season ran from 1 July 2022 - 30 June 2023

Key properties of the V04 data set:

• global - ALL TC basins

• 2007-2022 - 16-y data set

• three TC types NN (mouse over) ; 9Xdev ; 9Xnon

  • NN - a numbered/named TC in the JTWC/NHC BT files (mouse over)
  • 9Xdev - the pre/potential TC (pTC or 9X) disturbance that developed into an NN TC
  • 9Xnon - pTC that did not develop into an NN TC

• dynamical variables (e.g., vertical wind shear) from ERA5 10-d forecasts

• thermo variables (rain) from three high-resolution satellite analyses NCEP-CMORPH, JAXA-GSMaP & NASA-IMERG

the superBT data in the dat/ directory:

• 3 .csv data files

  • sbt-v04-2007-2022-MRG.csv - the superBT
  • all-md3-2007-2022-MRG.csv - a merge (I call a mdeck3 or md3) of both real-time operational and final best track TC position/structure data
  • sum-md3-2007-2022-MRG.csv - a one-line storm summary, there are 5233 storms in the data set

• 3 corresponding .csv metadata files describing the variables.

  • h-meta-sbt-v04-vars.csv - superBT variables/descriptors
  • h-meta-md3-vars.csv - mdeck3 variables/descriptors
  • h-meta-md3-sum.csv - mdeck3 storm summary variables/descriptors

• py2/ directory with a python2 interface for analysis and display

• docs/ directory with documentation

Quick Starts and documentation

docs

The more complete doc README-sbt-v04.md gives more details on the data and processing, and two science applications that demonstrate the unique capabilities possible with the superBT. Links to the python2 applications are also included in README-sbt-v04.md

The superBT-blog has an introduction with and an expanded version of the two science applications in README-sbt-v04.md

• formation rate of 9Xdev --> NN or the percentage of TC 'seeds' that become TCs (about 50% in 2018-2022 WPAC)
• differences in shear(decreases)/rain(increases) in 9Xdev v 9Xnon shear(increases)/rain(decreases) about 48 h before formation or dissipation

install -- if you are a "just give me the links to the data" person...

There are two ways to install:

• download the superBT tarball: superBT-V04.tgz

mkdir local-dir                        # local-dir is the directory to untar and will be ...
cd local-dir                           # the root of the git repo
tar -zxvf ~/Downloads/superBT-V04.tgz  # ~/Downloads is the typical location of downloads

• pull the release from github.com/tenkiman/superBT-V04
  • download the git repo tarball in .zip or .tar.gz format
  • clone the git repo: git clone git@github.com:tenkiman/superBT-V04.git superBT

wxmap2.com weather maps and TC NWP displays

The code used to manage the NWP, TC and precipitation data flows and to construct the superBT comes from the python implementation of my 'weather maps' web site WxMAP at FNMOC in 1997 and JTWC in 2002. WxMAP runs on my home PC and is pushed to my wxmap2.com domain.

Here are some links:

• maps.wxmap2.com -- original weather maps
• jtdiag.wxmap2.com -- display tracks and 'diagnostic' file for real-time storms and sync'd to operational forecasting
• tcgen.wxmap2.com -- TC genesis forecasts from the 5 operational global NWP systems
  • USA-NCEP(GFS)/EU-ECMWF(IFS)/Canada-CMC(CGD)/USA-Navy(NAVGEM)/Japan-JMA(GSM)
• tcact.wxmap2.com/cur/llmap.htm - maps of TC activity in the current year basins (20230701-20240630 the 2024-SHEM season)
• tcact.wxmap2.com/cur/spec.htm - TC activity 'spectographs' in the current year basins (2024-SHEM season)
• tcact.wxmap2.com/cur/ts.htm - TC activity time series 4,8,16,32,48 years the current year basins (2024-SHEM season)

Contact info

Comments and questions are always welcome and appreciated! Please contact me at mfiorino@gmu.edu

ispell local words

LocalWords: superBT BT Fiorino br Fiorino's JTWC NHC IBTRaCS NN Xdev Xnon py LocalWords: ropical kts uper pre pTC thermo NCEP CMORPH JAXA GSMaP IMERG csv LocalWords: README sbt md TCs WPAC QuickStartV tgz mkdir dir untar cd repo LocalWords: zxvf wxmap NWP WxMAP FNMOC sync'd GFS ECMWF CMC CGD NAVGEM JMA LocalWords: GSM