Text edits through nesting effort

Reports/usace_2023.Rmd

@@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ tibble::tribble(
 
 #### Hydrology
 
-  At the start of 2023 water levels in WCA 3 and 2 were relatively average, while LOX and inland ENP had below-average water levels. Dry down occured more or less as average through March. Water levels increased dramatically in early April due to an uncharacteristically large rain event. Water levels resumed drying down, until the onset of the rainy season in early June  (Figures \@ref(fig:waterplot3) - \@ref(fig:waterplotcoastal)).
+  At the start of 2023 water levels in WCA 3 and 2 were relatively average, while LOX and inland ENP had below-average water levels. Water levels decreased throughout the system through March and then increased dramatically in early April due to an uncharacteristically large rain event. After, water levels resumed a dry down trend, until the onset of the rainy season in early June  (Figures \@ref(fig:waterplot3) - \@ref(fig:waterplotcoastal)).
 
 ```{r waterplot3, fig.cap = "Mean daily water stage in central WCA 3 (red line), as well as minimum and maximum envelope (red shaded). Stage is shown in relation to mean monthly maximums (+) and minimums (x) for the period of record, and one standard deviation in excess of mean monthly maximums (+) and below minimums (x)."}
 water_report(wca="3ase", minyear=params$report_year-2, maxyear=params$report_year)
@@ -156,7 +156,7 @@ water_report(wca="coastal", minyear=params$report_year-2, maxyear=params$report_
 #### Water Recession
 
   Water level recession rates in winter and spring have been noted as one of the components that can help make prey available to wading birds in the Everglades, and although the power of drying rates for predicting nesting alone is rather weak, several studies suggest that minimum water recession rates of 2 mm/d or greater may be important as a partial threshold for breeding. Water recession rates are currently used operationally by the SFWMD to enhance breeding whenever possible.
-  In 2023, water recession rates varied across the area and between early and late nesting season. LOX and all subregions of WCA 3 had above average early season recession rates, exceeding over 50% of years in each case (Table \@ref(tab:watertable)). However, WCA 2 and Everglades National Park were below average. The late dry season (January through March) had much higher than normal dry down rates in all regions, exceeding more than 80% of rates in many cases. Overall, conditions were relatively too dry for high nesting productivity.
+  In 2023, water recession rates varied across the area and between early and late nesting season. LOX and all subregions of WCA 3 had above average early season recession rates, exceeding over 50% of years in each case (Table \@ref(tab:watertable)). However, WCA 2 and Everglades National Park were below average. The late dry season (January through March) had much higher than normal dry down rates in all regions, exceeding more than 80% of rates in many cases. Coupled with relatively low initial water levels, conditions became too dry for high nesting productivity in the late dry season.
 
 ```{r watertable}
 dry_down() %>%
@@ -195,7 +195,7 @@ weather_report("precipitation", plot_year=params$report_year)
 
 #### Nesting effort
 
-  We estimated that a minimum of 25,775 wading bird nests were initiated at colonies within WCA 1, 2 and 3 and an additional 7,884 nests in ENP (Table \@ref(tab:nesting)). Wood Storks initiated nesting in WCA 3 (690 nests) at Jetport South, as well as several colonies in ENP (794) in 2023. Roseate Spoonbills continued to nest in the WCAs and were present in at least 10 colonies. Large numbers of nesting Roseate Spoonbills were observed in Alley North (107 nests) and 6th Bridge (65 nests).
+  We estimated that a minimum of 25,775 wading bird nests were initiated at colonies within WCA 1, 2 and 3 and an additional 7,884 nests in ENP (Table \@ref(tab:nesting)). Wood Storks initiated nesting in WCA 3 (690 nests) at Jetport South, as well as several colonies in ENP (794) in 2023. Roseate Spoonbills continued to nest in the WCAs and were present in at least 10 colonies. Large numbers of nesting Roseate Spoonbills usually occurred in large mixed colonies as were observed in Alley North (107 nests) and 6th Bridge (65 nests).
 
 ```{r nesting}
 max_counts() %>% 
@@ -246,7 +246,7 @@ ggmap::ggmap(ggmap::get_map(location = location,
 ```
 
 
-  We also continued long-term monitoring of small colonies, primarily small dark herons, in WCA 3. Note that because of low detection rates of small dark herons from the air, these species are not systematically counted in aerial surveys, and our total counts in the summary tables are derived from partial coverage obtained from ground survey transects and observations from the air when possible. The small dark heron counts should therefore be treated as bare minimums. The only indicator of trends of these species is through comparing the same ground surveys in selected transects over time as an index of abundance (Table \@ref(tab:ground)). Based on these surveys, there has been an overall trend towards fewer numbers of Tricolored Heron and Little Blue Heron nests in the study area since 2000. This decline has been accompanied by a large increase in numbers of Black-crowned Night Heron presence in the same colonies. Despite an overall decrease in Tricolored and Little Blue Heron trends for the period of record, there has been an uptick in Little Blue Heron presence starting in 2015. This upward trend continued in 2023 with the highest nesting effort (462 nesting pairs) in small tree islands in the last 22 years, 3.1 times the 10 year average. In contrast, Tricolored Heron nest numbers only increased slightly from last year, with 52 nesting pairs observed. Tricolored Heron nesting effort was 2.5 times the ten-year average, but still far fewer nesting pairs than when surveys began. This pattern could be the result of a general reduction in nesting by Tricolored Herons throughout the Everglades, or it could indicate that these species are nesting elsewhere in the system such as in larger colonies or in coastal areas. For logistical reasons, Egretta herons are difficult to count in large colonies. However, large numbers of nesting Little Blue and Tricolored Herons have been observed in large mixed species colonies. Competing predictions about the declines are being addressed, such as a decline or shifts in composition of the prey base, displacement by Black-crowned Night Herons, or movement to coastal colonies. Black-crowned Night Herons are likely to be a predator on nestlings of Egretta herons; the night herons have been increasing as nesters rapidly during the past ten years and this upward trend continued in 2023 with 1.9% and 2.3% of the five- and ten-year averages during systematic ground surveys (1882 nests, Figure \@ref(fig:groundplot)).  The sudden decrease in Little Blue and Tricolored herons correlates with the sharp increase of Black-crowned night heron presence on small tree islands. The slight increase in Tricolored Heron nesting effort and recovery of Little Blue Heron nesting effort could suggest that small herons are adjusting to Black-crowned Night Heron presence in small tree islands.
+  We also continued long-term monitoring of small colonies, primarily small dark herons, in WCA 3. Note that because of low detection rates of small dark herons from the air, these species are not systematically counted in aerial surveys, and our total counts in the summary tables are derived from partial coverage obtained from ground survey transects and observations from the air when possible. The small dark heron counts should therefore be treated as bare minimums. The only indicator of trends of these species is through comparing the same ground surveys in selected transects over time as an index of abundance (Table \@ref(tab:ground)). Based on these surveys, there has been an overall trend towards fewer numbers of Tricolored Heron and Little Blue Heron nests in the study area since 2000. This decline has been accompanied by a large increase in numbers of Black-crowned Night Heron presence in the same colonies. Despite an overall decrease in Tricolored and Little Blue Heron trends for the period of record, there has been an uptick in Little Blue Heron presence starting in 2015. This upward trend continued in 2023 with the highest nesting effort (462 nesting pairs) in small tree islands in the last 22 years, 3.1 times the 10 year average. In contrast, Tricolored Heron nest numbers only increased slightly from last year, with 52 nesting pairs observed. Tricolored Heron nesting effort was 2.5 times the ten-year average, but still far fewer nesting pairs than when surveys began. These patterns of decline, followed by an apparent rebound could be the result of a general fluctuation in nesting by these species throughout the Everglades, or it could indicate that these species were nesting elsewhere in the system such as in larger colonies or in coastal areas. For logistical reasons, Egretta herons are difficult to count in large colonies. However, many nesting TRHE and LBHE were observed during aerial surveys in large mixed colonies including 6th Bridge, Lox Ramp, and Alley North, as well as several Egretta dominated colonies in northern WCA 1. Competing hypotheses about the overall trends include a potential decline or shift in composition of the prey base, initial displacement by Black Crowned Night Herons, or movement to coastal colonies. Black-crowned Night Herons are likely to be a predator on nestlings of Egretta herons; the night herons have been increasing as nesters, roosters, and foragers rapidly during the past ten years and this upward trend continued in 2023 with 1.9% and 2.3% of the five- and ten-year averages during systematic ground surveys and an overall record high number of 1882 adults counted in 2023, Figure \@ref(fig:groundplot)). The sudden decrease in Little Blue and Tricolored herons correlates with the sharp increase of Black-crowned night heron presence on small tree islands. The increase in Tricolored Heron nesting effort and recovery of Little Blue Heron nesting effort could suggest that small herons are adjusting to Black-crowned Night Heron presence in small tree islands.
 
 ```{r ground}
 load_datafile("Counts/groundcounts.csv", path = get_default_data_path()) %>%