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@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ title: 一场比试 | |
author: 帕 | ||
date: 2024-04-30 | ||
category: | ||
- 此地之外 | ||
- 罗德岛日志 | ||
tag: | ||
- 帕 | ||
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--- | ||
icon: note | ||
title: 特别专访:泡菜 | ||
date: 2024-04-30 | ||
category: | ||
- 创作者访谈 | ||
tag: | ||
- 泡菜 | ||
order: -4 | ||
--- | ||
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韩国,济州岛,一处任何探测仪器也找不到的海鲜餐馆内,就是泡菜妹和广英的所在之地。 | ||
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广英:为什么要把我带到这里啊…… | ||
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泡菜:嘿嘿嘿,当然是请你吃夜宵啊! | ||
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广英:你想给我吃什么……你是觉得先前17000韩元的抹茶泡面还不够对我内心造成足够的伤害吗?你也想剥削和毁灭我的尊严吗……所以我们吃啥? | ||
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--- | ||
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广英:我是广英和荣耀,本次专访由我和我的韩国老朋友,老同学,曾经的出版从业人员,二游市场从业者,前月亮计划文案工作者泡菜(化名)共同完成。泡菜妹先前参与了回归线13期,23年6月刊的专访。本次专访使用录音,会有基于对话通畅和文字记录阅读便利的修改,请各位体谅。 | ||
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泡菜:那次我们是在上海西门子培训中心借场地做的专访。我们还喝了特产折耳根奶茶,记忆犹新。 | ||
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广英:折耳根奶茶不是上海特产,不是任何地方特产。总之这一次她说请我吃韩国特产……结果是生腌。 | ||
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泡菜:你为什么丝毫不震惊。 | ||
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广英:我是浙江人啊,我家那边又不是没有生腌……我有宁夏来的朋友还被我用生腌海鲜招待,吃出胃穿孔进医院了呢。对了,你方舟国服注册成功了吗? | ||
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泡菜:成功了。 | ||
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--- | ||
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泡菜:聊明日方舟? | ||
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广英:先聊聊整体的二游市场吧。,你随便聊? | ||
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泡菜:怎么说呢,我的感觉是,现在整体二游——移动端二次元手游的整体市场呈现一种颓势,无论韩国还是中国。 | ||
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广英:好好好你继续说,开局就整点劲爆的,我们的读者就喜欢看这些。 | ||
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泡菜:大概是这样——韩国移动游戏市场每年大概在80亿美元收入左右,而二游占比在这大概一半偏多。23年是上下半年27加26亿美元,和往年确实总体下滑的。 | ||
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广英:是疫情原因吗? | ||
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泡菜:很难说,整体韩国手游内购收入仍然高于疫情前水平,但二游市场的相对数值却下降了。中国这边情况也差不多,可能有你那边的历史政策原因…… | ||
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广英:停停朋友,这个是不能碰的滑梯,你绕一下这一部分。 | ||
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泡菜:哦。反正我记得中国游戏市场的比重和我们是有差别的,移动游戏占整个市场结构的四分之三左右,而二次元手游只占整个手游市场占比的1/8. | ||
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广英:这么少啊? | ||
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泡菜:这可能就是游戏受众的群体地区差异吧。这几年随着疫情结束,我们都死了好多手游企划——随之就是增长率勉强抬头,但难掩颓势。 | ||
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广英:聊点具体的?中国这边的数据? | ||
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泡菜:你这人怎么回事啊,有说这个不能聊,又要我说的具体……我查一下:一般来说,一个基于移动和互联网的市场,增长率在峰值下滑后,会在3-5年稳定下来。但中国的二游市场还挺抽象的……你看这个,15年的增长率能达到近一倍(87%),然后一路下滑,20年蹦跶了一下(32%),之后就不怎么动弹了。 | ||
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广英:这个我还是懂的,导数嘛,增长率衰减,意味着市场饱和。不过为什么20年他会弹一下呢? | ||
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泡菜:疫情呗,韩国也一样啊。最开始大家被关起来,有了移动端娱乐消遣需求。但之后开发者能力有限,机遇转变为风险——全死啦! | ||
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广英:金大小姐你笑的好瘆人。对了这个图能给我吗? | ||
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泡菜:不能。总体来说,二游市场反馈反作用影响下,二游市场总体增速是下降且远低于移动游戏这个大盘的增速的。虽然这几年回暖了一点,但我还是持悲观态度。这里有另一个有意思的东西,中国的移动游戏用户数量基本不增长啦,17年我记得大陆是550百万人左右,20年到650左右——然后你猜今年是多少? | ||
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广英:啊?670? | ||
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泡菜:656百万人(34年),然后去年(22年)也是656,21年是655. | ||
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广英:哦,市场增长率不动弹了,用户数量也不变了。 | ||
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泡菜:当然如果引入海外市场就不一样啦,比如说日本那边的消费。方舟也有过一天赚200万日本人的美元的记录哦~ | ||
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广英:这个我知道,23年11月8号……我靠我怎么像个渴望被老师表扬的抢答小学生。 | ||
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泡菜:大概就是这么个意思吧。不过游戏开发反馈什么的最终还是在本土市场决定啦——因为除了经济情况,风评舆论,技术等等也是会影响二游开发的——而这些又会相互作用。当然,中韩历史背景不同,韩国的前网游和中国的政治拉扯都是绕不开的背景。 | ||
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广英:打住打住。 | ||
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--- | ||
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广英:说起来现在全球范围二游舆论都挺乱。 | ||
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泡菜:没啥意思——这种东西韩国可是第一赛区哦,领衔第一战区的舆论拉扯,又怎么是你们那边那什么“有男不玩”能比的~ | ||
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广英:对对对你们大韩赢了——不过也倒是,你们多少年前就有“手势门”了。 | ||
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泡菜:这其实说起来也很有意思:我们前面说到了,市场大蛋糕不增长了,用户不增长了对吧。 | ||
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广英:嗯。 | ||
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泡菜:手游有技术壁垒,但不多。大概是10年后吧,大萧条时期。很多厂商开始进行尝试资本市场实验。简单来说,一套代码换几层皮,就能做成不同游戏上线,迎合不同的群体啦。 | ||
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广英:低成本,覆盖面却很大,听上去很保险。 | ||
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泡菜:这种保险的另一个原因是当时二游市场就那么点,玩家群体小,厂商数量也就那么几个。要是放在20年后,这种鸡蛋放好几个篮子的方法只会让蛋全碎掉——幸存的几个也没办法支撑总体培养鸡蛋的成本。 | ||
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广英:所以要深耕市场? | ||
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泡菜:对,深耕市场,顺从用户需求,这样也许鸡蛋也会碎掉,但只要没碎就一定能活。韩国有个老变态,叫金亨泰。他就决定“我要做涩涩”!他瞄准的对象就是宅,角色设计尊崇“只要你是宅”,就能对上“诸多性癖中的一种”。他对宅男市场几度深耕,一度带领了整个大萧条时期后期的市场。 | ||
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广英:我突然想到我们以前学剧本结构的时候的一些东西,“虚实,符号和认同”那个。 | ||
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泡菜:你这么理解也对,不过那就是角色层面了:建立面对对象的角色,可能是喜好,也可能是映射记忆等,这是“符号”层面。服务对象有了符号认识之后,才能接受你为其构建的叙事(故事),最后达成认同。这样一个逻辑思想的最底层,是“针对服务对象,建设符号”。换句话说,我认为二游厂商需要存活,需要服务好服务对象(目标消费者)。 | ||
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广英:也就是说针对对象,产品有内到位,都在逐步建立认同。这是一种服务的体现。 | ||
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泡菜:但是虽然说是“厂商在设计产品时,就决定某个或某种服务对象”,但其最终还是需要投递到大市场,面对大部分消费者的。这就意味着厂家不可能服务所有人,而且在市场接触的过程中,几乎每一种消费者都会接触产品——很多矛盾,比如“有男不玩”啥的就出来了。 | ||
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广英:听上去似乎很难解决。 | ||
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泡菜:也不是不能解决。我是觉得,这就是一个分级制度和分类制度能搞定的问题嘛——提前告诉消费者,这个产品的服务对象是哪类人就行了。月计深耕R19+赛道,碧蓝档案深耕男性向依赖赛道,我们本土不也没啥那啥吗……虽然好像最近也有点失控了。总之就是,服务和挑选时双向的,这个亏我们十年前就吃了,而你们正在吃。 | ||
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--- | ||
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广英:意外的还挺好吃。 | ||
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泡菜:济州岛的辣蟹生腌也算一绝。 | ||
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广英:说起来,那个吃出胃穿孔的,你也认识,读物理的。 | ||
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泡菜:浙大那个?那他最近怎么样了? | ||
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广英:转读金融去了。<eod /> | ||
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<FakeAds /> |
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