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Probability of a large outbreak based on values of R and k #3

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adamkucharski opened this issue Nov 22, 2022 · 2 comments
Open

Probability of a large outbreak based on values of R and k #3

adamkucharski opened this issue Nov 22, 2022 · 2 comments
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low priority Task that are not immediately required

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@adamkucharski
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Add functionality to calculate the probability of a large outbreak (i.e. a branching process that fails to go extinct) following an initial introduction into the population, based on estimated values of R and k. This calculation was done for COVID under different introduction scenarios, and for different baseline assumptions (which could be drawn from epiparameter): https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/new-outbreak-probability

These functions could also be expanded to include multiple age groups and integration with socialmixr using previously developed methodology for outbreak probability in multiple groups

@adamkucharski
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Function added for single-type branching process. Need to add another for multi-type branching process.

@joshwlambert joshwlambert added this to the v0.2.0 milestone Jun 13, 2023
@joshwlambert joshwlambert added the low priority Task that are not immediately required label Dec 12, 2023
@joshwlambert joshwlambert removed this from the v0.2.0 milestone Dec 15, 2023
@joshwlambert
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After discussing this feature it was agreed that the multi-type branching process, with the possibility of multiple age groups is a low priority task.

Removing from v0.2.0 release plan.

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